Consumer Price Index (CPI)

[ekatteng]

Is it the best inflation indicator?
Perhaps for the core inflation but does it includes food and energy ?

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008

Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

 

[Bullitt]

I'm still in the transitory camp. Lumber getting smashed, next stop 800. Yields lower today too.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't get the lower yields, but that's not surprising. Bonds always seem to go in the opposite direction than I suspect they will.

 

[Bullitt]

Used auto prices accounted for 23% of the move. Probably mostly due to low interest rates + stimulus payments + more money with everything shutdown + chip shortage. Very similar to housing right now, just a lack of inventory, but auto inventory is much easier to ramp up than housing inventory.

 

[tsptalk]

CPI: July consumer prices jump 5.4%, but core inflation rises less than expected

Prices that Americans pay for everyday goods and services continued their acceleration in July, but about where economists had expected.

Excluding energy and food, CPI rose by 0.3% last month, shy of economist expectations of a 0.4% increase and well below June’s rise of 0.9%.

Used car prices, which rose rapidly between April and June, rose just 0.2% in July after a climb of more than 10% in the prior month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/cpi-report-july-2021.html

 

[TommyIV]

A visual chart of the 12 month comparisons of the last year.


View attachment 50296

 

[mmk119]

i get an invalid attachment warning message when i click on the link...

 

[tsptalk]

It worked for me. Let's see if the full link works better: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?attachmentid=50296

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market News

[h=1]Consumer price index rises 5.3% year over year in August vs 5.4% estimate[/h]

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Just adding the monthly figure and a link to ww's post...

Consumer prices post smaller-than-expected increase in August

The consumer price index, which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year earlier and 0.3% from July. A month ago, prices rose 0.5% from June.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/consumer-price-index-august-2021.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge

KEY POINTS

Consumer prices overall rose 0.4% in September, pushing the year-over-year gain to 5.4%.

Excluding food and energy, the gain was just 0.2% and 4% respectively.

Energy and food prices climbed, while used car prices, which had been a central story in the inflation picture this year, declined.

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/the...-in-september-vs-5point3percent-estimate.html

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Market News

Those cheering the 5.9% increase in cost of living for Social Security need to look at the other side of the coin. Health care will go up at least 5%. If anything else goes up, you're still losing money.

Health care is a joke at the federal level. I have no idea why I'm paying the same as a 65 year old diabetic.

I'm still on the transitory side though. Much of this is self fulfilling. Articles now about people doing Christmas shopping now so they don't have to worry about supply issues. The oil/energy issues are a result of bad policies and forcing solar, etc. down everyone's throats. Some type of renewable energy will be here in the future, but it won't happen overnight. No incentives for large companies to drill thanks to public shareholders (re: XOM, Engine No. 1). The only companies doing any drilling or exploration will have to be private ones that don't answer to large shareholders such as Black Rock and Vanguard bound by ESG and other acronym mandates popular on social media.

The nat gas fiasco worldwide can be blamed 100% on bad policies. Europe wants to "go green" and have NATO in their backyard, but can't break free from Nord Stream supply.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Market News

I have no idea why I'm paying the same as a 65 year old diabetic.

Sorry if that post got off topic. To clarify here, there should be incentives for people to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Sure, there are underlying health conditions, but when you pay a flat rate no matter what, where's the incentive to stop unhealthy behaviors such as smoking? In the end we all pay for it. My health care costs are going up 10% from 2020 to 2022. That's a big hit.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

The consumer price index surged 6.2% from a year ago in October, the most since December 1990.

Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, increased 4.6%, the fastest gain since November of the same year.

Energy, shelter and vehicle costs led the gains, which more than wiped out the wage increases that workers received for the month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation surged 6.8% in November, even more than expected, to fastest rate since 1982

Inflation rose 6.8% from a year ago in November, slightly higher than estimates according to the consumer price index released Friday.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 4.9%, in line with expectations.

Surging prices for food, energy and shelter accounted for much of the gains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/consumer-price-index-november-2021.html

 

[Boghie]

Re: Market News

Ah, October was the Good Ole' Days. Inflation was only at 6.2% rather than accelerating to 6.8%.

Gotta reach back to the days of Reagan/Volker to get a number like that.

A Fed Rate of 18% to beat inflation!!!

What, me worry???

Why, my cost of living increase will be around 2.7%!!!

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation rises 7% over the past year, highest since 1982

The consumer price index, an inflation gauge that measures costs across dozens of items, rose 7% in December from a year earlier, the fastest pace since June 1982.

That was in line, however, with economist estimates, and stock market futures rose after the release.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI was up 5.5% on the year, the biggest growth since February 1991.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/cpi-december-2021-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation rises 7.5% over the past year, even more than expected and the highest since 1982

The consumer price index for all items rose 0.6% in January, driving up annual inflation by 7.5%.

That marked the biggest gain since February 1982 and was even higher than the Wall Street estimate.

Core inflation rose 6%, which also was a notch higher than expectations.

Real earnings for workers increased just 0.1% on the month when accounting for inflation.

Weekly jobless claims declined to 223,000, below the 230,000 estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/jan...er-the-past-year-even-more-than-expected.html

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Market News

All this talk about how workers had momentum in getting pay raises and it all came out to a .1% increase in real wages.