Consumer Price Index (CPI)

[weatherweenie]

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.

Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, less than expectations

The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, pushed higher by rising shelter, used vehicle and gas prices. The increase was in line with Wall Street expectations.

On an annual basis, the inflation rate was 4.9%, slightly less than the estimate and providing some hope that the trend is lower.

For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-inflation-april-2023.html

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, the lowest in 2 years

The consumer price index, which measures changes in a multitude of goods and services, increased just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual level down to 4%. That 12-month increase was the smallest since March 2021, when inflation was just beginning to rise to what would become the highest in 41 years.

... core inflation rose 0.4% on the month and was still up 5.3% from a year ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-inflation-report-may-2023-.html

 

[Bullitt]

Some good, some bad.

Transportation up 10.2%. Rents up 8%. Vehicle repair up 13%, insurance up 17%. No value added with any of those items.

All energy down double digits, nobody going to complain about that.

Health insurance down 20%, but I'll believe that when I see the rate next open season.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm

 

[tsptalk]

CPI beats estimates (lower), but don't forget, prices and inflation are still going up (+3%). It's not like prices came down. They just went up less than was expected, but it's still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. But getting better. Still a 90% chance of a hike at the end of the month, but it's now more likely it could be the last, unless something changes.

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CPI rises less than expected in June

The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June and 3% from a year ago, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly increase of 0.3% and 3.1% on an annualized basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[cmil1212]

CPI beats estimates (lower), but don't forget, prices and inflation are still going up (+3%). It's not like prices came down. They just went up less than was expected, but it's still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. But getting better. Still a 90% chance of a hike at the end of the month, but it's now more likely it could be the last, unless something changes.

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CPI rises less than expected in June



https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

4.8 is hardly 2%. Fed has work to do. Shouldn't have paused. But market seems to be behind here or oblivious so have to plan accordingly. Safe to say we'll be pulling back at some point.

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation gauge rose 3.2% annually in July, less than expected

Prices accelerated 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. However, the annual rate was slightly below the 3.3% forecast though higher than June.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices so-called core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, equating to a 12-month rate of 4.7%. The annual rate for core also was slightly below a Dow Jones consensus estimate for 4.8%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/cpi-inflation-july-2023-.html

 

[Bullitt]

Take shelter out of the equation and we're in a deflationary environment.



https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1689617403922063360

St. Louis Fed projects shelter inflation to be deflationary one year from now.



Note: Solid line shows actual year-over-year changes; dashed line shows average forecast, with shaded 95% confidence band.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-rese...023/august/where-is-shelter-inflation-headed/

 

[tsptalk]

August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected

Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items.

The consumer price index, which measures costs across a broad variety of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.

However, excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/cpi-inflation-report-august-2023-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected

The consumer price index increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, above respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.6%.

Core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both exactly in line with expectations.

Shelter costs were the main factor in the inflation increase, accounting for more than half the rise in CPI.

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.2% on the month but were up 0.5% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/cpi-september-2023.html

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, was flat in October from the previous month but increased 3.2% from a year ago. Both were below Wall Street estimates.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual rate was the smallest increase since September 2021.

The flat reading on headline CPI came as energy prices declined 2.5% for the month, offsetting a 0.3% increase in the food index.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November

The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.

CPI inflation report November 2023

 

[tsptalk]

Thursday’s inflation report could challenge the market outlook for big Fed rate cuts

The consumer price index is projected to have risen 0.2% in the final month of 2023, or 3.2% for the full year.

There is a wide gap between what the Fed has indicated in terms of rate cuts and what the market is expecting.

The Fed’s central mission now is calibrating policy in a way that it doesn’t ease too much and allow inflation to return or hold policy too tight so that it causes a long-anticipated recession.

Inflation report could challenge market outlook for big Fed rate cuts

 

[tsptalk]

More from briefing.com:

Total CPI was up 0.3% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an unrevised 0.1% increase in November. The shelter index jumped 0.5% and accounted for over half of the monthly increase in total CPI.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).

With these December changes, total CPI was up 3.4% year-over-year, versus 3.1% in November, and core CPI was up 3.9% year-over-year, versus 4.0% in November.

 

[Bullitt]

Motor vehicle insurance up 20.3% since 2023. Unreal. Partially inflation, partially thanks to Kia and Hyundai thefts.

Nat Gas down 13% but I'm still paying the same price as last year.

Food away from home up 5.2%

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation in December was even lower than first reported, the government says

The prices consumers pay in the marketplace rose at an even slower pace than originally reported, according to closely watched revisions the government released Friday.

Revisions to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Inflation in December was even lower than first reported, the government says

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, more than expected, as the annual rate moved to 3.1%

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual gain of 2.9%.

CPI inflation January 2024: Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, more than expected, as the annual rate moved to 3.1%

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. The monthly measure was in line with expectations while the 12-month reading was slightly higher.

The core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.

A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter climbed another 0.4%.

CPI inflation report February 2024:

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.

CPI inflation March 2024: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation eases in April with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.

CPI inflation April 2024: Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April