Consumer Price Index (CPI)

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation rose 7.9% in February, as food and energy costs push prices to highest in more than 40 years

The consumer price index for February rose 7.9% from a year ago, the highest level since January 1982.

Excluding food and energy, both of which moved sharply higher during the month, core inflation still rose 6.4%, in line with expectations but the highest since August 1982.

Gas, groceries and shelter were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. Auto prices eased.

Worker paychecks fell further behind, as inflation-adjusted earnings fell 0.8% in February, contributing to a 2.6% decline over the past year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Re: Market News

It is expected to rise further so next month's number may not be better.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981

Headline CPI in March rose by 8.5% from a year ago, the fastest annual gain since December 1981 and one-tenth of a percentage point above the estimate.

Surging food, energy and shelter costs helped account for the gain.

Real worker earnings fell by another 0.8% during the month as the cost of living outpaced otherwise strong pay gains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/con...t-in-march-slightly-hotter-than-expected.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

U.S. Inflation Eased in April to 8.3% Annual Rate

Inflation rate fell for first time in eight months as energy prices moderated

U.S. consumer inflation eased in April to an 8.3% annual rate, taking a slight edge off the steepest run of price increases in four decades as energy prices moderated.

The Labor Department’s consumer-price index reading last month marked the first decline in eight months, down from an 8.5% annual rate in March. The CPI measures what consumers pay for goods and services.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inf...xg8eujanb39&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation rose 8.6% in May, highest since 1981

The consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981. Core inflation excluding food and energy rose 6%. Both were higher than expected.

Surging food, gas and energy prices all contributed to the gain, with fuel oil up 106.7% over the past year.

The rise in inflation meant workers lost more ground in May, with real wages declining 0.6% from April and 3% on a 12-month basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price pressures intensify

The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.3% and core CPI was up 0.7%, compared to respective estimates of 1.1% and 0.5%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inf...an-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit

Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices.

On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/con...pected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

 

[James48843]

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/con...pected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

That actually is rather good news.

I think it means the gasoline prices, which caused the big jump in inflation of everything, are coming back down, and six months from now, the inflation rate will be back to a reasonable number, without having to jack up interest rates too high. Another Fed rate hike or two, and things should be back near normal growth and normal interest rates.

Major recession avoided- and just a blip in time, in my book.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices

The consumer price index increased 0.1% in August. Excluding food and energy, the inflation gauge increased 0.6%, both higher than expected.

Costs were driven by increases in food, shelter and medical care services, offsetting a sharp decline in gasoline prices.

Real average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.2% for the month. However, they remained down 2.8% from a year ago.

The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inf...ugust-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

 

[rangerray]

Prices for food and other goods will not come down until the trucking industry gets some relief at the pump. It's still over $5/gal for diesel in a lot of places. The big trucks can take as much as 300 gal. on a fill up. That cost is paid by everyone. We need to concentrate on the cost to operate a Kenworth T2000, not a Ford F-150.

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes

The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, so-called headline inflation was up 8.2%, off its peak around 9% in June but still hovering near the highest levels since the early 1980s.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

 

[Valkyrie]

Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

it would have been much higher except for the Biden administration trying to lower oil prices, otherwise the 2023 COLA increase would have been more than 10%. Instead it got below 9%.

 

[James48843]

The Social Security Administration announced on Thursday an 8.7 percent increase in benefit checks for seniors starting next year, a response to the fastest inflation America has seen in four decades. The change will affect about 70.3 million Social Security beneficiaries, including roughly 8 million Supplemental Security Income recipients. The adjustment is expected to increase monthly Social Security checks by about $150 per month on
Thursday's announcement represents the largest increase in Social Security payments in roughly four decades. The Social Security Administration increased the program's benefits by 5.9 percent at the beginning of this year in response to lower -- but still substantial -- inflation in 2021. The change is known as a cost of living adjustment, or COLA.

"The guaranteed benefits provided by Social Security, including the annual COLA, are more crucial than ever, as high inflation remains a problem for older Americans," said Jo Ann Jenkins, chief executive of the AARP, which represents seniors, in a statement. "The automatic adjustment is an essential part of Social Security that helps ensure the benefit does not erode over time due to rising prices."

Full article : https://archive.ph/K3HXb

* SS =. 8.7%
I THINK that 8.7% also applies to CSRS retirees, and FERS would be 1% lower at 7.7% raise in January, if I did that correctly. Is that right?

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases

The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, both lower than estimates.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, also lower than expectations.

Prices declined for medical care services, used vehicles and apparel. Shelter costs posted their highest monthly gain since 1990.

Markets soared on the report and Treasury yields tumbled.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/con...er-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html

 

[Bullitt]

I'm sure the numbers were just manipulated in some way to look good. Three things below that are more important and had zero effect on the recent inflation numbers.

- Looking like a split government ahead and that's less chance for any more stimulus.

- School loan bailouts are facing serious challenges and that's creating a nice deflationary hit.

- An end to the conflict in Ukraine is closer after this past week's action.

 

[TommyIV]

Re: Market News

Tomorrow (12/13) the Consumer Price Index will be made public at 8:30 AM ET. The forecast for the year-over-year change is 7.3%.

Tomorrow will also be the beginning of the December FOMC meeting. The committee is expected to raise rates by 0.5% on Wednesday but the CPI will be fresh on their minds.

Stocks are up today despite the potential for the CPI to spark volatility tomorrow.

U.S. stocks rise as investors await inflation data and the Fed's rate decision

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumers survey on inflation:


Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows

Consumers grew more optimistic about inflation in November amid expectations that both food and energy price increases would be less severe in the coming year, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.

The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/12/con...-the-next-year-new-york-fed-survey-shows.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago

The consumer price index, which measures a wide basket of goods and services, rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/cpi-inflation-november-2022-.html

 

[TommyIV]

Re: Market News

Tomorrow is the release of the latest Consumer Price Index. Investors have been satisfied seeing this index consistently decrease the last five months. Last month's year-over-year CPI was below expectations coming in at 7.1%. This month the y-o-y is forecasted to be 6.5%. The y-o-y has not been below 7% since December 2021.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY

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[tsptalk]

Re: Market News

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists

The consumer price index fell 0.1% in December, meeting expectations, for the biggest drop since April 2020.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3%, also in line with estimates.

On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 6.5% while core increased 5.7%.

The biggest reason for the easing in inflation came from a sharp drop in gasoline prices, which are now lower on a year-over-year basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/con...ber-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html