Consolidating Gains

Aside from some selling pressure that came after the existing home sales report was released, trading today was pretty listless.

The C and S funds managed to close modestly higher, while the I fund benefited from a 0.5% drop in the dollar index to close moderately higher.

Fourth quarter GDP was upwardly revised to a 5.9% annualized growth rate, but the personal consumption component of that data seemed to mute any buying interest as it increased at a lower than anticipated 1.7%.

As I mentioned earlier, the biggest market mover today was the much lower than expected reading for January existing home sales, which dropped 7.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.05 million units. A revised and final February Consumer Sentiment Survey was little changed at 73.6, which had no impact on market activity.

So we ended the week modestly lower than we began in volatile trading action. I would say that the action overall was bullish in that we appear to be consolidating gains from the previous week.

Monday we have two new IFTs so no doubt many of us are looking forward to being back in business again instead of watching from the sidelines.

Here's today's charts:

NAMO.jpg

NAMO remains on a sell here, while NYMO tagged its 6 day EMA triggering a buy.

NAHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL flipped back to a buy today.

TRIN.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ are both flashing buys.

BPCOMPQ.jpg

BPCOMPQ continued its slow ascent and remains on a buy.

So we have 6 of 7 sentinels flashing buys, which keeps the system on a buy. We appeared to be consolidating gains this past week, which means we could continue to see choppy action until we finally breakout (more than likely to the upside given the systems buy status). That's my take anyway, but of course the market will have the last say.
 
CoolHand,

From a guy ranked 204 on the AutoTraker - so, obviously take that into consideration...

I wouldn't be 100% in or 100% out of equities in this market. I think there is consolidation going on, but I also think it will move on information we do not currently have. Lots will happen in March...

We could boom or collapse.

I think we are likely to boom (if you call 5% growth a boom) to the top of the trading range.

But, the downside is truly ugly.
 
Boghie;bt1169 said:
CoolHand,

From a guy ranked 204 on the AutoTraker - so, obviously take that into consideration...

I wouldn't be 100% in or 100% out of equities in this market. I think there is consolidation going on, but I also think it will move on information we do not currently have. Lots will happen in March...

We could boom or collapse.

I think we are likely to boom (if you call 5% growth a boom) to the top of the trading range.

But, the downside is truly ugly.


Hi Boghie,

You are describing risk. There are many variables and I cannot even begin to scratch the surface, but considering how much upside we'd seen since the March lows, I'm not sure how much more upside we could get over 2010. Certainly not another 50% and the truly explosive gains are more than likely gone for now.

Hypothetically, if I make just 4 more moves this year, and each move nets me 3% on average, that would be another 12% on top of what I have right now. Also, assuming I only stick around for 5 trading days on each of those moves that would mean I'd spend another 9 months in the G fund, which would net me another 2.5%. That would give me about 17.5% in gains for the year while significantly lowering my risk in the process. Sounds good in theory, doesn't it? :cheesy:

I am all about risk aversion right now and I think I have a system that gives me a pretty good shot at grabbing gains quickly and then scurrying back into my G fund hole to cower in fear. :laugh:
 
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