Confidence II

[Guest]

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Once again revised down and worse then expected.

For those that are long this market...good luck!

MT

Manufacturing, confidence fall short
[font=Arial,Helvetica]Chicago PMI and consumer confidence index drop more than expected. Albertson’s profit plunges, but Zale guides in line. Oil drops again.[/font]

Disappointing data on Midwest manufacturing and consumer confidence trimmed some early market optimism. Stocks struggled to cling to slight gains this morning on light volume.

The Chicago purchasing manager’s index (PMI) dropped to 57.3 in August from 64.7 in July. Economists were looking for a decline to 60.8. Any measure above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing. New orders were principally responsible for the fall, sliding to 58 from 68.7.






In addition, a measure of consumer confidence dropped in August as the labor market continued to cause jitters. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 98.2 from a downward revised 105.7 in July. Both the present situation and expectations components of the index fell significantly. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a smaller decline to 102.

The percentage of those surveyed who felt jobs were plentiful dropped to 18.1% for August from 19.7% in July. And 16.5% of those surveyed in August felt there would be more jobs available in six months, compared to 19.5% who thought that the month before.

“The level of consumer optimism has fallen off and caution has returned,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center, said in a press release. “Until the job market and pace of hiring picks up, this cautious attitude will prevail.”

 

[tsptalk]

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The market is very smart. Aside from the short term knee jerk reactions, it reacts before the news. The August reports are old, rearview mirror news. The market is looking forward. Examples Ihave mentioned many times before are thatthe bull marketstarted upin March of 2003, many months before any report saying the economy was improving. Also, the market dropped nearly 10% during the two weeks leading up to 9/11.The market knows all. It is going up now for a reason we don't know about.

Rearview mirror analysis usually will have you shaking your head. Kind of like I was doing in July. July's downturnsurprised me but apparently the market knew August would see some weakness in confidence and jobs.

 

[Spaf]

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MT

I saw the charts you posted. I understand. If I wanted to buy and hold, there are few time slots since the bubble that as of now I would of made any money. RE your SOXX chart in "What is your allocation"

Your chart tells me the same data that I use with the S&P. My reality is this: I would like to maximize my TSP account before I retire. I know what Thrift is. I know what Savings is. But no one ever told me what the Plan was (?).

So I've got some $. Do I put it in the G fund and just sit back? Maybe yes, maybe no. What happens if I found a web site where I could get better information. As Tom says in 2003 less than 3% of the $118B of the TSP was in S which was up 43%. In my office, my co workers do not have a clue about their TSP (over my objection). For what ever, I want to take better care of my money. That is why, I monitor this web site, It's good and I learn a lot from you guys. I make mistakes with my TSP allocations, but I can easly correct mistakes. I actively control my TSP. If I screw up, it won't be that I didn't try.

My allocation is 0-10-30-40-20 for Sept 2. Reason: I agree with Tom, I agree with the moving averages of 15 days (Yeh it's short) and it's the only game I have to play, other then the G fund. Some people have their yahts and millions, I'm sorry I'm not one of them,my first rule is to manage my finances, and not letting it be up to the "tooth ferry" to some how make my retirement a bed of blissful roses.

PS: Consider, how many coworkers and other folks will not have this opportunity when they reach retirement.

This is a good site.

 

[Guest]

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MT two links for ya, cheer up will ya? Geezzzzz

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040824/markets_investors_1.html

Whose "conference board" is this and who are they polling? Factory workers who don't invest anyway?

 

[Guest]

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Spaf,

It is all risk reward. If you are betting the job report will be gang busters Friday will be a great day to have your allocation. If you feel the job report will be another dud then you are going to take a hit with your current allocation.

I am betting the job report will be bad based on the weekly jobless claims and the number of companies announcing lay offs. I am going into F and I fund starting today. Thursday I will be out of the I fund and be 90% g fund and 10% F fund.

Well throw the Ifundidea out the window now. I see theinternational markets have rallied well today . I do not want to buy into that at this point The I fund will also get hurt if the U.S. job report comes in low again. I try not to buy high and sell low. That would happen I feel if I moved over at the COB.

Starting today I will be 20% F fund until the end of the week.

Another missed move.

MT

 

[puertorico]

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Market-timer

I not want to contrarian you talk.ok

I think I -fund is interesting right now and things even

if the friday job report are low ,I fund would still paying

good becouse dollar gonna still down and euro will be up.

Low job report will keep dollar down....

I hope so ! good luck

 

[Guest]

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Puerto,

If you remember the last bad job report the international funds fall just has hard as our markets. That is why I am 100% G fund. I feel the risk reward is not worth putting any capital at risk. Call me wimpy but when the trend is up I am ulta aggressive. I just do not want to take a hit.

I hope you are right with your outlook. UAL just announced 6000 job cuts. That adds to the long list this month of cuts this month. I do not want to be in the front of this train (unless I had a strong feeling the report would be good):

The Employment Report

• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month
• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.

The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.
The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.
Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follows these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data also include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings.
The average workweek (also known as hours worked) is important for two reasons. First, it is a critical determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Second, it is considered a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek early in the business cycle may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may indicate that employers are having difficulty finding qualified applicants for open positions. Average earnings are closely followed as an indicator of potential inflation. Like the price of any good or service, the price of labor reacts to an overly accommodative monetary policy. If the price of labor is rising sharply, it may be an indication that too much money is chasing too few goods, or in this case employees.

 

[Guest]

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Since the markey is always one step ahead, you think this report is already factored in?

 

[puertorico]

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I 'm not an expert just go to the trend.

In the last job report the trend was way down so the

market keep his trend.This friday report, the trend is in

the way up so markte will keep his trend.

still thingking even with dow jones look red, I fund will

still paying...

Nowu make me think about it...:shock:...but may I get greedy...

Mr TimerMarket Thank for all information u bring here [outstanding]

 

[Guest]

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puertorico wrote:

Mr TimerMarket Thank for all information u bring here [outstanding]

You mean the "fear" he brings? :l

 

[puertorico]

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May be a wake-up call...

Is good to have different point of view...:^

 

[Guest]

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Last month the experts predicated 250K-300K in job growth the report came in at a robust 32K. DOW down 169, NASDAQ 44.

The experts are now saying 150K for this Friday.

The weekly unemployment reports have been bad (remember the market sold off last Thursday because of the bad report?). I have posted on another area of this site a list of companies that reported job cuts for August.

I hope you guys are correct and everyone is 100% stock funds and I am sitting in G like an idiot but I just do not see why we will hit 150K job growth this Friday. This is not a casino and I am not a gambler. I only take a stab when I know I will not get my fingers and toes hacked off.

MT

 

[Guest]

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Mr Rico,

Thank you!

Everyone was bullish in Jan 00 and I was bearish. When everyone is bullish that makes me :shock:.

But I appreciate you saying you are interested in hearing my point of view. I went 100% G fund on 27 January and have been hearing it all year from my office mates. Now I am getting hits on this board that I am :end:.

I enjoy your opinion also. I hope that I am wrong. But the bullishness and who cares about the job report (stand in front of a train with a smile) has me wanted to take cover.

MT

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

The market has not factored in a bad job report. I hope I am wrong.

If we get another 32K this Friday :end:.

Good luck to you all!

MT

 

[puertorico]

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TM

I'M even in this market-fight so my corner talkme to go for a ko.

Iknock the market or I get ko...just kidding:^.

What ever happen u are playing safe...

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

The weekly unemployment reports have been bad (remember the market sold off last Thursday because of the bad report?). I have posted on another area of this site a list of companies that reported job cuts for August.

MT

Sold off? The C fund was neutral and the S fund lost 2 cents? Ouch, LOL

 

[Guest]

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So MT, you ever post positive reports in the market? How come Intel is up today? Hmmmmmmmmm



NM, report comes out tomorrow................

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

The 6 July was the reflection of the job report on the TSP accounts:

C fund (.09)

S fund (.17)

I fund (.14)

MT

 

[Guest]

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I'm missing sumpin'.................

 

[puertorico]

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In the all job report for this year ,not matter what job report was,

high or low,the market have been following his trend.So in this year

the market never changed his trend.That what I'M SEEING THIS YEAR.

Even I post one time :

wAo ,how the market do ?,And not have reaction on the big job report.

The market do nothing ,just keep his trend down in a big job report.

I been seing that before .

Tm - That why I go more wich the trend and not wich the job report...

unstil today have been working for me,I dont know tomorrow will...