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I am back! Thank you for the comments. Someone on this board has to look big picture and not be the ragging bull. The underpinnings of the marketare very, very bad. You probably heard the term "Comps". Companies are getting slammed due to comps. The fourth quarter last year was the best quarter in 22 years. Comparisions will not be a pleasant site this fourth quarter compared to the last fourth quarters. Retailers said that they sales were down due to Charley. Hey before Charley started the retailers were complaining that they could not get shipments fast enough due to the high volume of customers. This storm the same thing is happening. You probably saw the lines and lines of people to get into storms. Then when they miss sales growth they blame it on the storm. Bottom line the excuses are covering up what is really going on. People have less money to shop. Oil prices are near record highs, property taxes have shot up, food prices are raising, etc. etc. As you have seen auto sales are way down and retail sales have dropped greatly. You can put a shiny happy face on this but Intel is speaking for every company out there. Raising inventories even thou lowering prices on their products. THIS IS BAD FOR STOCKS. This is a choppy market that can cut you up if you let it. Hold and hope is not a good investing plan.
Had to be hospitalized Thursday night :?for fluid on my lungs. I am very glad to be home again.
The rally on Thursday was based on a "rumour" that the job report was going to be gang busters. I believe the this was done to get people to tune into the big speach Thursday night. Everyone was happy andexcited when they saw theDOW up 127 on Thursday, right? Call me crazy but there was a leak that came from somewhere. As you know 144K job growth is less then the 150K people that come into the job market month on month. The last three months we have averaged 100K new jobs. That job report was better but if we do not grow jobs to the level of the new people joining the ranks we will have problems in the economy.
Friday my allocation is50% I fund and 50% S fund. This is not because I turned bullish. I felt this was a good chance to stick my pole into the muck and see what I can pull out. In my opionion I believe that we could get a relief rally based on Pres Bush getting a bounce in the polls. If the big guys come back and start selling on Tuesday I will have made a very bad move. I am going to stick it out and see if a rally will form. If not I will go back to my bunker of 100%. I wanted to catch the Thursday .01 in G fund and switched over based on the Intel report that came out 2 Sep and the lackluster job report. I believe the big guys are going to wait for the relief rally to top and bail until the election.
Sorry for those who missed the "rumour" rally on Thursday but the NASDAQ was down 1% for the week. That is the bottom line. As you know the NASDAQ leads the market. When the NASDAQ starts to sink, the DOW and S&P 500 follow.
Good luck!
MT
