clester's Account Talk

[clester]

This will be 8 days in a row of very quiet trading. Was Europe trading in our markets and now they're on vacation? Anyway, it's odd.

 

[clester]

This will be 8 days in a row of very quiet trading. Was Europe trading in our markets and now they're on vacation? Anyway, it's odd.

Bond market not quiet though. Emotionally, it hard to give up on a losing trade. That's why it's so important to have a stop or a price where you will exit and stick too it. It doesn't always work out but it does most of the time. I have lost way more money waiting on a bounce before I get out.

 

[clester]

I think we are destined to test the yearly highs. I am now watching the RSI's especially in the s&p. If we get to 70 or more then I will probably look to get out. $emw is a long way from there and so has a lot of room to run. Agg is in a downtrend with no end in sight. If its RSI gets below 30 then it may bottom.

 

[clester]

Interesting observation: the ten year $tnx has a big gap up to about 2.05%. That may get filled before we head back down. It's testing it's 200dma now.

 

[clester]

Interesting observation: the ten year $tnx has a big gap up to about 2.05%. That may get filled before we head back down. It's testing it's 200dma now.

Actually, it needs to go to about 2.15% to fill the gap

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think we are destined to test the yearly highs. I am now watching the RSI's especially in the s&p. If we get to 70 or more then I will probably look to get out. $emw is a long way from there and so has a lot of room to run. Agg is in a downtrend with no end in sight. If its RSI gets below 30 then it may bottom.

If today looks like it will be another up day, I'm bailing and going short.

 

[clester]

If today looks like it will be another up day, I'm bailing and going short.

Back to boring huh? I just don't see any downward catalyst yet. Possibly, when s&p reaches 1422. Just from a technical standpoint. Really, Europe is probably quiet til September which means we will be too. That means we drift up IMO.

Agg is bouncing today and it may test its 50 dma. I'm thinking September will see more buying here.

 

[clester]

Technically, the S fund is looking great. It broke out of a inverted head and shoulders and the $emw should be headed to 720 to 730.

 

[clester]

Technically, the S fund is looking great. It broke out of a inverted head and shoulders and the $emw should be headed to 720 to 730.

So far things are playing out like my crystal ball said it would. RSI's are slowly getting up to the 70 mark. Perhaps we have another week or two before a big pullback happens. That coincides with a new month and a holiday weekend.

 

[clester]

Sell stop is 690 on $emw

 

[polarbear]

Come, o pullback, come!

 

[clester]

Come, o pullback, come!

Here's your pullback. Funny how as soon as news comes out of Europe we sell off.

looks like the $emw will test the breakout level of 690 which isn't a surprise. It should bounce off that level and continue up if things are going to play out according to the TA textbook.

Otherwise, it may breakdown. So I'm watching that level closely.

 

[jkenjohnson]

My instincts told me to get out Friday. Now I wish I would have. I had a decent gain for August.

 

[clester]

My instincts told me to get out Friday. Now I wish I would have. I had a decent gain for August.

Instincts ( or gut feelings) are good if you have a good background in the area (which you do). Folks just need to be careful it's not an emotional reaction. That's where TA comes in handy. It can verify your instincts.

My gut (or crystal ball, if you will) says we still have some upside. But, if the technicals turn against me I will change direction. I have learned not to get stuck in a losing trade. Some people refuse to take a loss and ride it down much farther waiting for a bounce.

 

[Birchtree]

I believe that Spain is close to a genuflect to the ECB - then we'll see what Super Mario has got in his bag.

 

[clester]

Here's your pullback. Funny how as soon as news comes out of Europe we sell off.

looks like the $emw will test the breakout level of 690 which isn't a surprise. It should bounce off that level and continue up if things are going to play out according to the TA textbook.

Otherwise, it may breakdown. So I'm watching that level closely.

Great test of the 690 level on $emw. That's the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern or cup and handle breakout pivot. We should be able to continue up now. RSI is in good shape as well as other indicators I use.

 

[clester]

Great test of the 690 level on $emw. That's the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern or cup and handle breakout pivot. We should be able to continue up now. RSI is in good shape as well as other indicators I use.

A word of caution. The $ndx has RSI of 73 and s&p is at 68. These are getting near there upside limits. However, Nasdaq has stayed over 70 for a while. S&p...not so much but it's not an immediate sell for me just means start getting cautious.

But, we are not there yet. If Nasdaq gets to RSI of 80 then that is a sell. $emw is any at 63. So, perhaps the S fund has some more upside.

 

[Sensei]

A word of caution. The $ndx has RSI of 73 and s&p is at 68. These are getting near there upside limits. However, Nasdaq has stayed over 70 for a while. S&p...not so much but it's not an immediate sell for me just means start getting cautious.

But, we are not there yet. If Nasdaq gets to RSI of 80 then that is a sell. $emw is any at 63. So, perhaps the S fund has some more upside.

Cool. I had to look up what the RSI is. The more you know.
For others who are afraid to ask:
Relative Strength Index (RSI) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

I have enough on my plate following the S&P and VIX. Keep us up to date. Nice to know certain people follow certain things. Best.

 

[clester]

Cool. I had to look up what the RSI is. The more you know.
For others who are afraid to ask:
Relative Strength Index (RSI) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

I have enough on my plate following the S&P and VIX. Keep us up to date. Nice to know certain people follow certain things. Best.

Thanks for the link. I like RSI because it doesn't oscillate quickly. It seems to work well on indicies too. Nasdaq is harder because it's more volatile.

Btw, s&p is now over 70 so we need to watch other things to verify the signal. If it gets to 80 I would sell.

 

[clester]

Thanks for the link. I like RSI because it doesn't oscillate quickly. It seems to work well on indicies too. Nasdaq is harder because it's more volatile.

Btw, s&p is now over 70 so we need to watch other things to verify the signal. If it gets to 80 I would sell.

Pretty predictable action today. Profit taking at new high and at double top area. IMO this will be short lived and we will start back up. RSI is back under 70.

Even though the chart looks like a reversal candle I don't think this is the top. But we are probably getting near a pullback. Maybe next week. But not yet IMO.