clester's Account Talk

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It seems the strength of the dollar is a primary factor in I fund performance. Dollar weakens, I fund strengthens. Sooooo.... what is the driver of the falling dollar?
 
Whipsaw said:
It seems the strength of the dollar is a primary factor in I fund performance. Dollar weakens, I fund strengthens. Sooooo.... what is the driver of the falling dollar?
Click to expand...

Yeah good question. I think Europe is getting stronger. They starting QE after us and are getting ready to wind it down I think. That's part of it.


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I should be 100% stocks according to my system. We are in a bull market and price is above the 50 dma and we are at new highs . But, now that I'm out I find it hard to jump back in. My sixth sense says be careful. September is a tough month usually.


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clester said:
I should be 100% stocks according to my system. We are in a bull market and price is above the 50 dma and we are at new highs . But, now that I'm out I find it hard to jump back in. My sixth sense says be careful. September is a tough month usually.


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Click to expand...

Clester it is always easier to figure out when to get out aand pull the trigger to do it than to figure out when to get back in! You're not alone. That is my most difficult decision as an investor!
 
Scout333 said:
Clester it is always easier to figure out when to get out aand pull the trigger to do it than to figure out when to get back in! You're not alone. That is my most difficult decision as an investor!
Click to expand...

It makes it real tough when you only have two moves a month.
 
Looking at the charts, C fund has set up a negative divergence via RSI to price. Lower RSI highs while making higher highs in price. Its been that way for a while but should cause a downtrend soon. Unless the RSI breaks above its trend. I still feel cautious here and plan on waiting until around mid October before loading up again. Mainly based on seasonality which I don't usually follow that closely. Too many traders have been expecting the pull back. When that happens the market does the opposite.
 
clester said:
Looking at the charts, C fund has set up a negative divergence via RSI to price. Lower RSI highs while making higher highs in price. Its been that way for a while but should cause a downtrend soon. Unless the RSI breaks above its trend. I still feel cautious here and plan on waiting until around mid October before loading up again. Mainly based on seasonality which I don't usually follow that closely. Too many traders have been expecting the pull back. When that happens the market does the opposite.
Click to expand...

So divergence didn’t pan out but now S fund is way overbought and C fund is nearly overbought via rsi. Good time to sell at least part of your position. Unfortunately, I’ve been out for awhile.


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Been gone a while. Finally have something to work with. Nice pull back. RSI is in a buy but my system requires a bottoming pattern. A lower low with a higher rsi. So, waiting and watching. A buy signal is coming soon.
 
clester said:
Been gone a while. Finally have something to work with. Nice pull back. RSI is in a buy but my system requires a bottoming pattern. A lower low with a higher rsi. So, waiting and watching. A buy signal is coming soon.
Click to expand...

Welcome back, was wondering, its been over a year :eek:
 
October has a lot of V shaped turnarounds over the years. Thats intriguing, but I'd like to see a divergence on price and RSI first. One more dip to new low on price would do it. But, in bull markets you don't always get that.
 
clester said:
October has a lot of V shaped turnarounds over the years. Thats intriguing, but I'd like to see a divergence on price and RSI first. One more dip to new low on price would do it. But, in bull markets you don't always get that.
Click to expand...

I think we’re almost there. We got the conditions for my system except for a bounce to start. We are below the 200 dma so I should be in 50% or more. I may start that tomorrow.
 
in case anyone was interested, I was in the S fund for about a week and got out. The tracker didn't get changed. sorry. I an 100% G right now. Looking to buy some S fund I think. We are in a bull market (%0 dm above 200 dma) and my system would have me 50% in at the minimum.
 
clester said:
in case anyone was interested, I was in the S fund for about a week and got out. The tracker didn't get changed. sorry. I an 100% G right now. Looking to buy some S fund I think. We are in a bull market (%0 dm above 200 dma) and my system would have me 50% in at the minimum.
Click to expand...

we are in a nice downtrend. Think I'll wait for that to end.
 
clester said:
we are in a nice downtrend. Think I'll wait for that to end.
Click to expand...
2581 closing price for spx has been hit twice this year. February and April. Wonder if that needs a test again. Anyway, I’m looking at the downtrend on this correction to be broken on the upside to give me a buy spot. These things usually go farther than you would think or expect.
 
clester said:
October has a lot of V shaped turnarounds over the years. Thats intriguing, but I'd like to see a divergence on price and RSI first. One more dip to new low on price would do it. But, in bull markets you don't always get that.
Click to expand...
Divergence is setting up nicely.
 
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