clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
Nice follow through. We have room to run. Maybe 2% or so before the RSI gets to 70. I wouldn't be surprised if we test the breakout point sometime but things look good.
Click to expand...

This was for the C fund. The S and I funds still have some work to do to get to new highs. The C fund chart looks much better and just closed at a new high. So, I'm looking at another 2 percent or so before the RSI gets too high. Thats about 2050 area on S&P 500. Maybe we get that this month and a nice pull back early October before the year end rally? Sounds good to me!
 
clester said:
This was for the C fund. The S and I funds still have some work to do to get to new highs. The C fund chart looks much better and just closed at a new high. So, I'm looking at another 2 percent or so before the RSI gets too high. Thats about 2050 area on S&P 500. Maybe we get that this month and a nice pull back early October before the year end rally? Sounds good to me!
Click to expand...

So the pull back is before Oct1 :)

so we will get the rally next month IMO. Looking for a good 4th quarter!

The S fund is testing 50dma and I fund testing its 200dma and both seem to be in a downtrend. They don't look good and need to bounce here but not to the RSI buying point yet. Needs to get below 30 for a buy signal.

C fund still looks okay and as long as it stays above the 50dma I'll stay in.
 
clester said:
So the pull back is before Oct1 :)

so we will get the rally next month IMO. Looking for a good 4th quarter!

The S fund is testing 50dma and I fund testing its 200dma and both seem to be in a downtrend. They don't look good and need to bounce here but not to the RSI buying point yet. Needs to get below 30 for a buy signal.

C fund still looks okay and as long as it stays above the 50dma I'll stay in.
Click to expand...

If we get another good down day...Enough to get the RSI below 30 on S fund , I would move over there. Its right below its 200 dma which should produce a pop. At least short term.

The C fund is still in good shape though. Its above the 50 dma.

One week until October! Thats when we get a good bounce IMO as long as geo-political stuff behaves.
 
clester said:
If we get another good down day...Enough to get the RSI below 30 on S fund , I would move over there. Its right below its 200 dma which should produce a pop. At least short term.

The C fund is still in good shape though. Its above the 50 dma.

One week until October! Thats when we get a good bounce IMO as long as geo-political stuff behaves.
Click to expand...

Hope we get a good bounce in October. I've taken a pretty good hit for September.
 
clester said:
If we get another good down day...Enough to get the RSI below 30 on S fund , I would move over there. Its right below its 200 dma which should produce a pop. At least short term.

The C fund is still in good shape though. Its above the 50 dma.

One week until October! Thats when we get a good bounce IMO as long as geo-political stuff behaves.
Click to expand...

The S fund is still above 30 on RSI. If we get below it I'm a buyer. The S and I funds are both below the 200DMA which is a sell but a very low RSI will override that signal.

C fund slightly broke its 50 DMA and is holding above it at the moment. Going below is a red flag but not a clear sell signal. If I do have to sell it will only be a 50% sell since we're in a bull market.

The S fund is close to a buy and the C fund is holding the 50DMA so I see a market bounce soon but we still have 3 trading days left in the month and I still expect a bounce starting no later that next Wednesday.
 
clester said:
The S fund is still above 30 on RSI. If we get below it I'm a buyer. The S and I funds are both below the 200DMA which is a sell but a very low RSI will override that signal.

C fund slightly broke its 50 DMA and is holding above it at the moment. Going below is a red flag but not a clear sell signal. If I do have to sell it will only be a 50% sell since we're in a bull market.

The S fund is close to a buy and the C fund is holding the 50DMA so I see a market bounce soon but we still have 3 trading days left in the month and I still expect a bounce starting no later that next Wednesday.
Click to expand...
Also, we have had several big down days during this rally and they seem to correspond with a bottom. Let's hope today follows that pattern.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Bottoms are hard to determine. What makes you think today is the bottom?
Click to expand...

I don't know where the bottom is..but a RSI below 30 on S fund should be close. Will buyers come in? or will we see follow through? Who knows but I don't see a good reason for such a big down day except profit taking and shorts jumping on it while its down.
 
clester said:
I don't know where the bottom is..but a RSI below 30 on S fund should be close. Will buyers come in? or will we see follow through? Who knows but I don't see a good reason for such a big down day except profit taking and shorts jumping on it while its down.
Click to expand...

I've often found that the C and S Funds won't normally fall below RSI-30 before they bounce. While it does occasionally happen, anything below RSI-40 is a better buy signal for me. I consider anything in the 33-37 range to be very ripe for a bounce. On my own chart, I have 260 trading sessions worth of data (essentially 52W worth). The lowest I have the C Fund's RSI hitting at any point in time over the last 260 sessions is 31.6. For the S Fund, the lowest RSI I have is 33.2. I would say don't want for the RSI to drop below 30 unless you want to miss the bounce.
 
InsaneZane1 said:
I've often found that the C and S Funds won't normally fall below RSI-30 before they bounce. While it does occasionally happen, anything below RSI-40 is a better buy signal for me. I consider anything in the 33-37 range to be very ripe for a bounce. On my own chart, I have 260 trading sessions worth of data (essentially 52W worth). The lowest I have the C Fund's RSI hitting at any point in time over the last 260 sessions is 31.6. For the S Fund, the lowest RSI I have is 33.2. I would say don't want for the RSI to drop below 30 unless you want to miss the bounce.
Click to expand...
It seems to be true in bull markets. If you do get to 30ish its a pretty low risk trade at least short term.
 
Tomorrow is the end of the month and end of quarter. Any selling based on that should be over. C fund is holding at the 50 dma after a dip below which is good news. I expect a volatile day tomorrow but starting Wednesday (Oct 1) the 4th quarter rally should get going!
 
clester said:
Tomorrow is the end of the month and end of quarter. Any selling based on that should be over. C fund is holding at the 50 dma after a dip below which is good news. I expect a volatile day tomorrow but starting Wednesday (Oct 1) the 4th quarter rally should get going!
Click to expand...

Thinking of moving over to S fund or I fund because both have hit the RSI of 30 which is a buy. S fund can go down to 20 before a bounce though since its more volatile than C fund. I will wait for a bounce first although S fund already bounced intraday.
 
clester said:
Thinking of moving over to S fund or I fund because both have hit the RSI of 30 which is a buy. S fund can go down to 20 before a bounce though since its more volatile than C fund. I will wait for a bounce first although S fund already bounced intraday.
Click to expand...

So you are staying C?
 
clester said:
S fund RSI closed at 27 so its in a buy range and if we get a bounce tomorrow I'll move from C to S or maybe even I fund but USD will be a problem for it.
Click to expand...

I was thinking the same thing. I must be getting better at this. :laugh:
 
clester said:
Tomorrow is the end of the month and end of quarter. Any selling based on that should be over. C fund is holding at the 50 dma after a dip below which is good news. I expect a volatile day tomorrow but starting Wednesday (Oct 1) the 4th quarter rally should get going!
Click to expand...

Not much of a rally today.:confused:
 
clester said:
S fund RSI closed at 27 so its in a buy range and if we get a bounce tomorrow I'll move from C to S or maybe even I fund but USD will be a problem for it.
Click to expand...

It's slightly above 50sma and RSI is less than 30, so your system signals a buy if I remember correctly.
 
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