clester's Account Talk

[OBXTrader]

I jumped in from L2020 to the L2050 on the 12th and timed it just right to catch updraft. Although I agree with you, booking some profits and returning COB today to L2020 keeps skin in the game and protects me should I want to stay invested into September (two new IFTs). Pure risk management for a conservative investor. Also booked some ETF profits this AM so I have buying power in my IRA.

Just noticed lots of folks headed to the sidelines because of being overbought etc. In my system, I only use the RSI for overbought indications. We are a long way from there so I don't see any problems yet. As long as we stay above the 50 dma on C and S we are good. If I fund can't get above it's 50 dma then it could be a problem but nothing to indicate that yet.

 

[clester]

I jumped in from L2020 to the judgeon the 12th and timed it just right to catch updraft. Although I agree with you, booking some profits and returning COB today to L2020 keeps skin in the game and protects me should I want to stay invested into September (two new IFTs). Pure risk management for a conservative investor. Also booked some ETF profits this AM so I have buying power in my IRA.

Very valid approach. I certainly won't argue. I am also a conservative trader.

One of my tenets is to never put more than 50% bonds during a bull market because its very hard to judge downturns.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Strong buy now on C and S funds since they are over their 50 dma. I fund still having strong rebound and needs to get above its 50dma to keep a strong buy. F fund still a sell.

Always seems that this time of year there's a lull in the market. We've had that lull earlier this month and I'll say for this year so let the good times roll. The bull market can't help rising. People want to buy stocks after this recent August retreat. And with the SPX right there, very near 2000 again, consider it a done deal. After that it's like a runner getting their second wind. SPX 2100 and beyond by the end of the year.

 

[clester]

Always seems that this time of year there's a lull in the market. We've had that lull earlier this month and I'll say for this year so let the good times roll. The bull market can't help rising. People want to buy stocks after this recent August retreat. And with the SPX right there, very near 2000 again, consider it a done deal. After that it's like a runner getting their second wind. SPX 2100 and beyond by the end of the year.

for my system to get a sell for overbought or rsi over 70 we could get another 2% or so.

 

[jkenjohnson]

No changes to the system except that the I fund isn't the strongest. I would rather be in S fund but won't waste a trade for that.

I have never made any money in the I fund and very little in the F fund. I avoid them, mostly because I don't know how to trade them. My 2 cents worth.

 

[jkenjohnson]

for my system to get a sell for overbought or rsi over 70 we could get another 2% or so.

Do you use the 50 sma or 50 ema?

 

[clester]

Do you use the 50 sma or 50 ema?

Sma

 

[jkenjohnson]

Sma

Thanks Craig. I never knew which one you were using.

 

[clester]

Thanks Craig. I never knew which one you were using.

Sure.

The C fund will probably be the first to hit the RSI sell value of 70. When it does I'll sell 50%. I always keep at least 50% invested in a bull market.

I think the 2000 level is a magnet pulling prices up. It will probably bust thr9ugh before pulling back.

 

[nasa1974]

Nice avatar.

 

[clester]

Nice avatar.

Thanks. I thought it was appropriate since I'm taking "nuclear and atomic physics" class this fall.

 

[clester]

On our current trajectory, I'm guessing about a 15 to 20 point move up in S&P will get us too the RSI threshold for me to sell 50%. Although I'm in the I fund, I use the S&P as a major guide in overall market movement. The S fund won't get to new highs and the I fund won't break it's 50 dma in this scenario.

In this scenario and since we are so close to September, I may sell 100% and look for a good buying spot. This would break my system rules so I would need to buy back in soon. At least 50%.

 

[clester]

On our current trajectory, I'm guessing about a 15 to 20 point move up in S&P will get us too the RSI threshold for me to sell 50%. Although I'm in the I fund, I use the S&P as a major guide in overall market movement. The S fund won't get to new highs and the I fund won't break it's 50 dma in this scenario.

In this scenario and since we are so close to September, I may sell 100% and look for a good buying spot. This would break my system rules so I would need to buy back in soon. At least 50%.

interesting to listen to the chatter around fed. Consensus seems to be that we will sell off after the speech. That we are in need of pull back Lots of tspers are already out too.

My experience is that if something is expected it usually doesn't happen. Lets see how it plays out.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I'm thinking she'll use recent lagging in the retail industry and low real estate inventories as an excuse to keep the rates down.

 

[Birchtree]

I think she'll draw more crash groupies.

 

[clester]

The I fund is getting hurt by the dollar and the ftse being closed. I'm wishing I dad picked the S or C fund.

I'm thinking we will rally through Wednesday or thursday before profitctaking kicks in. I plan on getting all the way out this week which is against my system. I should stay in 50%. I have a couple days to decide.

 

[clester]

The I fund is getting hurt by the dollar and the ftse being closed. I'm wishing I dad picked the S or C fund.

I'm thinking we will rally through Wednesday or thursday before profitctaking kicks in. I plan on getting all the way out this week which is against my system. I should stay in 50%. I have a couple days to decide.

btw, we will hit 2020 or more before RSI gets too high on S&P

 

[clester]

btw, we will hit 2020 or more before RSI gets too high on S&P

RSI is at about 67 and my sell point is 70. I'm guessing we'll hit it this week. Maybe another 10 points or so should do it. I'm still thinking about selling 100% since we have new trades next week and I'm at a sell point. Its a bull market though so I'll need to put at least 50% back to work very soon next month is we don't have a pullback. A retest of the 50 DMA would be a good spot to buy back in 50%.

Not selling today but looks like it will be soon.

 

[InsaneZane1]

Hmm, your sig and your AT data show you as being 100I. The I Fund isn't necessarily going to drop when the C and/or S Funds do. The I Fund's RSI is actually in very good shape (low to mid 50s). My own opinion is that the I might pop upward again soon, especially with it now in a squeeze between 100DMA and 10DMA. However, it does make a lot of sense to make a "safe play" move before the month ends. I wouldn't want to burn IFT#1 for September on a move to the G Fund either.

Just a thought, but have you considered keeping a smaller amount of your money in the I Fund? Doing so would keep at least some of it still in play in the event the I Fund continues to climb, but would make any drops far less painful to your account balance.

 

[clester]

Hmm, your sig and your AT data show you as being 100I. The I Fund isn't necessarily going to drop when the C and/or S Funds do. The I Fund's RSI is actually in very good shape (low to mid 50s). My own opinion is that the I might pop upward again soon, especially with it now in a squeeze between 100DMA and 10DMA. However, it does make a lot of sense to make a "safe play" move before the month ends. I wouldn't want to burn IFT#1 for September on a move to the G Fund either.

Just a thought, but have you considered keeping a smaller amount of your money in the I Fund? Doing so would keep at least some of it still in play in the event the I Fund continues to climb, but would make any drops far less painful to your account balance.

Thanks for the comment. My thinking is that when us markets go down so do others. I fund is nearing resistance at its 50dma. Its RSI is in good shape and if it breaks above its 50dma its a strong buy and I would get back in. My system dictates that I stay in at leas 50% during bull markets so I'd be going against it. Any move out 100% would need to be shirt term.