Charting: Complacency

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Good evening

As we head into the end of the month, much of the price action remains the same, fear & volatility has subsided, and from my perception has been replaced with complacency.

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AGG, 30-min

• Confirmation of the short-term price reversal was displayed with a spike in volume at wave 8
  
• The February descending parallel price channel has been broken, we now have a higher low at wave 8 and a higher high at wave 9
• A close above 50%'s 111.29 places buyers in control, a close above the 111.58 gap should seal the deal, it would be nice if stocks provided confirmation
  
• Wave 9 resides just under a 50% retracement of the quadrant's high/low, this is a classic place to look for a sharp rejection, stall out, thrust up, or consolidate before pressing higher

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AGG, Daily

• You may remember this chart, thus far prices have managed to hold on to that trendline for dear life.
  
• It looked like a classic setup for a bear flag which could take us down to 109.25 which is the bottom of triangle A, but Tuesday's price action appears to have busted the pattern.
• Off the flag, I'll theorize sellers were getting out of their positions from the top, while buyers were anticipating Janet Yelen's testimony and/or hedging against a drop in equities.
  

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SPX, 30-min

• Thus far I don't see strong signs of a pullback, our best opportunity was at wave 9, with it we saw both a spike in volume and a breach of the upper most trendline. I also saw a similar circumstance on the Wilshire 4500, but in both cases, it didn't happen, buy order quickly scooped up the discount with prices quickly advancing higher.
  

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SPX, Daily

• The Fibonacci Parallel Price channel has proven valuable, we now have 3 confirmed closes above and are resting atop the channel.
  
• Often times speculating... price will reach the target, just not in the way I thought it would. If you take the distance of the 1-2-3-4 wave and double it, this roughly takes us to 2150, but how we get there is the question. For myself, I'd like to see a healthy pullback to 2030-2060, before advancing to the next higher leg.

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I could post more, but adding more wouldn't add much value, so I'll cut it short. For the PnF charts, barring an extreme gap down at the open, AGG will trigger a Double Top Breakout, which will be a reversal giving us a bullish price objective.

Take care…Jason