charmed855's Account Talk

[charmed855]

My system is telling me to stay in the snake pit another day. I expect some intra-day volatility this week so I will avoid jumping in and out of the I-fund and risking possible -FV or -FVC action. The alternative is to stick with the I-fund for the next week, but I want to remain nimble and keep my options open. GL - c855

 

[charmed855]

Moving to the I-fund Friday for a post +/-FV play.
I somehow managed to average 5% returns during each of the last two months - hoping to keep the ball rolling into November. :nuts: Good luck all!


30 day post-FV return tally:
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, +2.09% (+/-FV, I Fund)
30 Oct, -0.35% (+/-FV, I Fund)
02 Nov, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------------------------
Total Post FV: +3.95%
Total I-Fund: +4.48%
Total S-Fund: +2.90%
Total C-Fund: +1.65%

 

[whitemingo]

Charmed,

With the markets being down this morning and the greater possibility today of a +FV would it be more prudent to be in the S Fund for Friday? But then again maybe I do not fully understand the FV. I understand why it is used but maybe not the way it works for the following day. I value your input and use it daily.

 

[Mr recognizer]

I think you are right. His contrarian plays never made sense to me. You develop an EbbChart based on thousands of historical patterns, and then you go against your own predictions based on a few pieces of recent data? Does not make sense.

forget EBB...he is toast...go with EK the neural man...also remember he had us in I yesterday and G today and friday...what agreat system...K-CHING TO THE EK MAN.

 

[Geaux4it]

Mr. 'R'
'Lighten up Francis.'

Geaux

 

[Birchtree]

I should've mentioned it earlier, but the "Cooler" does have a brother - and since their plight is genetic he has the same effect on folks. We can call him "Cooler-2" - shall I give him a ring?

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Ah give him a break, I find it comical and you gotta love the enthusiasim....I wonder if he and EK have the same IP address.


J/K of course, Support the one you like most, is what I say, nuttin wrong wth dat

Exactly what I have been pondering?

 

[Mr recognizer]

K Ching Ek You Da Man Around Here!

 

[Mr recognizer]

EK...MR. NEURAL himself is blowing EBB away...WOW hes made some great calls....its also free so hop aboard as hes a money making machine...and its free....ty very much mr neural...you are very nice to give us your service for FREE...looking forward to all your calls....you are simply AMAZING? k-ching sez the neural man.....

When you're HOT you're HOT, when you're NOT you're NOT!:embarrest:

 

[charmed855]

Charmed,

With the markets being down this morning and the greater possibility today of a +FV would it be more prudent to be in the S Fund for Friday? But then again maybe I do not fully understand the FV. I understand why it is used but maybe not the way it works for the following day. I value your input and use it daily.

Mingo, to be honest, it is days like today that got me looking into post FV performance versus trying to predict FV's before they happen.
In retrospect, I guess yesterday's +FV was a bit of a "no-brainer," however, todays -FV was a surprise. Post FV days are historically strong, so I am merely going with the trends. Monday will be a post -FV play so I'll be staying in stocks over the weekend.

 

[charmed855]

forget EBB...he is toast...go with EK the neural man...also remember he had us in I yesterday and G today and friday...what agreat system...K-CHING TO THE EK MAN.

You are quite the one beat drum. Move along now.

 

[charmed855]

I should've mentioned it earlier, but the "Cooler" does have a brother - and since their plight is genetic he has the same effect on folks. We can call him "Cooler-2" - shall I give him a ring?

Yes, please do. Set cooler-2 loose on cooler-1 and maybe they will both disappear in a puff of smoke. :cheesy:

 

[merlin]

Patience is a virtue on this one.....I watched Ebb early on and was not happy with what I saw in February....I unfortunately, waited until September (after 8+% August) to join the masses. I recognized some of the same things that charmed has mentioned from reverse-engineering some of the calls. I have not followed Ebb 100%, but I do know that it is an invaluable tool when making my educated guess. I stand behind ebb for the years' performance and hope that it comes back after the fed announcements and good news. That is, if we have good news. I smell the stench of fear in the markets and may sideline after Uncle Bernanke slides the mark.

I agree 100%.

 

[charmed855]

Well, today was a post +FV day (based on Wednesday action) and I was positioned in the I-Fund. I moved back over to the S-fund for Monday as a post FV play on yesterdays -FV. In doing so I'll manage to avoid the -FVC (about -1%) that will be applied to the I-fund on Monday. I'll be back in the I-Fund for Tuesday based on todays +FV and the high probability for positive returns that usually follow.

It feels good to finish the week on a positive note. Here's to the weekend and a new week of possitive returns for all!

30 day post-FV return tally:
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, +2.09% (+/-FV, I Fund)
30 Oct, -0.35% (+/-FV, I Fund)
02 Nov, +0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund) estimate
05 Nov, ??????? (-/+FV, S-Fund)
06 Nov, ??????? (+/- FV, I Fund)
---------------------------------
Total Post FV: +4.26%
Total I-Fund: +1.22%
Total S-Fund: -2.04%
Total C-Fund: -2.23%

 

[RPM]

Well, today was a post +FV day (based on Wednesday action) and I was positioned in the I-Fund. I moved back over to the S-fund for Monday as a post FV play on yesterdays -FV. In doing so I'll manage to avoid the -FVC (about -1%) that will be applied to the I-fund on Monday. I'll be back in the I-Fund for Tuesday based on todays +FV and the high probability for positive returns that usually follow.

Kudos to you on these analysis! My head is spinned when I read the above!:cheesy:

 

[RPM]

Total Post FV: +4.26%
Total I-Fund: +1.22%
Total S-Fund: -2.04%
Total C-Fund: -2.23%

So I gathered that post +/- FV, (on the 3rd day) go to I, and post -/+FV, on the 3rd day, go to S. So what is the total above for each of the fund? Thanks for the analysis!

 

[ayla]

charmed --

My conclusion is that the reason your strategy based on the strong I fund after a post +/-FV "sequence" works so well is because "they" (meaning TSP board or whoever makes these decisions) seem to be consistently overshooting on the + FV days thus giving you a good buy on the -FVC days to get a decent profit on the followup to the +/-FV. Do you think I might be close to the truth here?

Maybe if they get on to your strategy (conspiracy theorist here, I'm thinking they are paying attention here..), maybe they will start doing a better job on the +FV days not to overshoot so much.

In any case, either by your profits now or by "their" correcting the way they calculate +FV's, you're doing a great job of analysis here. Thanks.

Moving to the I-fund Friday for a post +/-FV play.
I somehow managed to average 5% returns during each of the last two months - hoping to keep the ball rolling into November. :nuts: Good luck all!


30 day post-FV return tally:
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, +2.09% (+/-FV, I Fund)
30 Oct, -0.35% (+/-FV, I Fund)
02 Nov, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------------------------
Total Post FV: +3.95%
Total I-Fund: +4.48%
Total S-Fund: +2.90%
Total C-Fund: +1.65%

 

[charmed855]

So I gathered that post +/- FV, (on the 3rd day) go to I, and post -/+FV, on the 3rd day, go to S. So what is the total above for each of the fund? Thanks for the analysis!

RPM, you got it. The other returns are just the total for each fund during the same 30 day period. I posted the historical (YTD) returns about a week ago and they're really promising. I started the rolling 30 day tally just to see how it does going forward.

 

[charmed855]

I'll be back in the I-Fund for Tuesday based on todays +FV and the high probability for positive returns that usually follow.

I just checked today's daily returns and realized we didn't get a +FV today afterall.
Given that, I'll be headed to the G-fund instead on Tuesday (my trending system is showing weakness in C, S, I and F). Good luck.


30 day post-FV return tally:
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.99% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, +2.09% (+/-FV, I Fund)
30 Oct, -0.35% (+/-FV, I Fund)
02 Nov, +0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Nov, ??????? (-/+FV, S-Fund)
---------------------------------
Total Post FV: +3.52%
Total I-Fund: +1.30%
Total S-Fund: -1.94%
Total C-Fund: -2.17%

 

[charmed855]

charmed --

My conclusion is that the reason your strategy based on the strong I fund after a post +/-FV "sequence" works so well is because "they" (meaning TSP board or whoever makes these decisions) seem to be consistently overshooting on the + FV days thus giving you a good buy on the -FVC days to get a decent profit on the followup to the +/-FV. Do you think I might be close to the truth here?

Maybe if they get on to your strategy (conspiracy theorist here, I'm thinking they are paying attention here..), maybe they will start doing a better job on the +FV days not to overshoot so much.

In any case, either by your profits now or by "their" correcting the way they calculate +FV's, you're doing a great job of analysis here. Thanks.

ayla - I've considered your theory as well and found that most FV corrections generally adjust the I-fund to within 0.10% of the Barclay's index. That could account for some of the increase in the average post FV return, but I'm not convinced that such a small difference can account for the 10-15% increased probability of a positive return. I think much of it has to do with the short term effect of intra-day volatility on market psychology. I can certainly understand how that would be the case for a +/-FV. Post -/+FV's are a little more difficult to wrap my head around.