charmed855's Account Talk

[charmed855]

Nice work. Looks like something out of www.ChannelingStocks.com. I have given some thought to a method like yours, but never quite developed it. Looks like you're hitting the highs with the C and S funds, but that I fund is a little unpredictable. Hopefully this will continue to work in the long term for you.

Thanks. It's one of the tools I use to justify my market paranoia.
I ignored it a few times recently and got my greedy butt kicked. :embarrest:

 

[charmed855]

The channels have been kind to me this week. I'm leaning towards S for tomorrow to avoid the possible FV mess should the I fund move back up to the -.7% range.

 

[charmed855]

I'm a little concerned with today's action breaking out of the lower channel, especially for S, but because it also broke out of the upper channel a few days ago, I'm seeing this as more of a needed correction than an indication of more bad juju.

<repeat to self> everything's going to be OK </repeat to self> :blink:

 

[charmed855]

I'm anticipating a +FV today so I am dropping the I-Fund for tomorrow. Of course, any moves made to avoid a -FV have never worked out for me so I'm just humoring myself.

30% C
70% S

 

[charmed855]

As others have pointed out, we're at the top of a nicely defined channel now, and while recoveries like this tend to blow the top off, I don't think I will take the risk of riding the next wave even with the possibility of a +FV on Monday.

6 day SMA including today's projected returns. I=green, S=red, C=blue

 

[charmed855]

It took a while, but it looks like we're beginning that move to the bottom of the channel. I've been in G with an itchy trigger finger so I'm hoping we get back into the buy/green zone before I forget what risk feels like.

6 day SMA - COB 20 June
C=Blue, S=Red, I=Green

 

[charmed855]

Rumor has it that we got a confirmed Hindenburg Omen yesterday, and possibly another today. I have not been able to find a reputable source.

The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen​

 

[charmed855]

It looks like we're near the top of the channel again. Now, I hope I can do a little better job of identifying the bottom this time around. :worried:

6 day SMA (daily returns) - COB 3 July (estimate)
C=Blue, S=Red, I=Green​

 

[Birchtree]

Don't forget the infamous throw over - one is coming. We are only 12 points from another new all-time high on the SPX. July will be rewarding - I got a good vibe from my Ferdinand seismograph on Monday.

 

[charmed855]

Trying not to get whipsawed, but this quicksand is mighty deep .

Got out of the I-fund in case we see some rebound this afternoon and a possible FV tomorrow.

 

[charmed855]

Trying not to get whipsawed, but this quicksand is mighty deep

Where are the razor blades, I can't take this anymore.

 

[charmed855]

Let's see ... I can stay in and take a 2.5% ride down to the next level of support or get out and lose on a 2.5% pop. Either way, I'm screwed.

Let me flip a coin .... heads, I'm cashing out.

 

[charmed855]

My system is pointing me towards the snake pit for tomorrow but I'm starting to take caution. Cramer is touting his DOW 14500+ prediction again so I'm guessing we can't be far from another channell top. In fact, I myself was thinking a couple days ago that I might just sock away everything in stocks and let it ride for the rest of the year. Nah - I'm going to keep playing my system but keep an eye out for this crest to disintegrate.

 

[Birchtree]

My Grammy always used to say that a properly allocated portfolio doesn't need to be rejiggered every time the weather changes. In bull markets, consolidation like we saw in Feb and Aug are referred to as digesting the previous gains. It's a way for the market to take a breather. The market will not stop here. We still have a couple of years of a healthy market in this bull move.

 

[charmed855]

My Grammy always used to say that a properly allocated portfolio doesn't need to be rejiggered every time the weather changes. In bull markets, consolidation like we saw in Feb and Aug are referred to as digesting the previous gains. It's a way for the market to take a breather. The market will not stop here. We still have a couple of years of a healthy market in this bull move.

Sounds like you had a pretty sharp Grammy. Mine only told me to take precautions and wear my jacket when the weather got cold.

 

[charmed855]

I've been out of stocks the last four days and managed to avoid some losses. I wish I could take credit for reading the tea leaves, but I've been following a system of my own design since the beginning of Sept. I'm not a pure system guy, so it's been a hard transition.

Anyway, I'm seeing an oppertunity in domestic stocks over the next couple days so I will be moving to S for Wednesday and likely C for Thurs.

 

[Steadygain]

Excellent timing for this week - Good Job.

 

[charmed855]

I went to C for tomorrow as indicated below. There's been some great technical analysis on the boards this week and some are taking a cautionary stance at the moment. I have a healthy respect for what may come, but this channel bottoming really hasn't tripped any major triggers for me. I'm looking for the markets to behave more like they did in the late spring and early summer - not as bullish as the last month or two - somewhat cyclical and less volatile. That said, I'm following my system into the I fund for Friday hoping we get some carry over from the earnings reports. I'll also be crossing my fingers that Turkey doesn't invade Iraq before the weekend. :worried:
c855

 

[charmed855]

For anyone that might be interested, I'm still tracking post FV activity. Since it's often hard to predict when an FV will occur, I'm still focusing on the second day after the FV (one day after the FVCorrection) - or the "post FV cycle" day (in other words, if we have an FV on Monday, I look at the Wednesday follow through).

In 2007, we have had 24 +/- FV's (+/-FV being a +FV followed by a -FVC). 20 out of 24 post FV cycle days have yielded positive I-fund returns (total return of 8.98% YTD). That's an 83% hit average and the closest thing that I have seen to a sure thing.

-/+ FV cycles are less predictable. The hit rate is only 14 out of 24 (56%). Returns are strongest for the S fund at 8.52% YTD (C and I yeilded 4.1% and 5.6% respectively).

I've been dappling in this strategy over the last couple months - here are the most recent post FV returns:

04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +3.79%

July/Aug yeilded around +3.6% which means this strategy seems to hold up during periods of volatility.

c855 (hoping for a +FV this afternoon).

 

[ayla]

Thanks charmed. Your results look very interesting. Was wondering why you bought into the I fund today? Wouldn't tomorrow be the day to buy the I fund assuming that the speculation of a +fv today materializes and if you were looking to take advantage of this pattern? (or maybe you're more of a buy and hold type of person, just curious, hope I'm not offending ...)