charmed855's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Silly girl - why would anyone on this board be offended with the designation of a buy and holder. We don't denigrate our friends. Besides, friends do let friends buy and hold.

 

[charmed855]

Thanks charmed. Your results look very interesting. Was wondering why you bought into the I fund today? Wouldn't tomorrow be the day to buy the I fund assuming that the speculation of a +fv today materializes and if you were looking to take advantage of this pattern? (or maybe you're more of a buy and hold type of person, just curious, hope I'm not offending ...)

Good questions and no offense taken. My last remark was kind of flippant. :embarrest: Obviously, going into the I-fund tomorrow I don't want a +FV today. I guess I got a little ahead of myself thinking of the +/-FV opportunities that might exist.
I picked the I fund for tomorrow based off signals I got from my primary "system". I've never had much luck predicting/chasing FV's, which is why I prefer to track the post FV opportunities.

c855

 

[charmed855]

Since we got a -FV on the I-fund Friday, I'm going to make a play on post FV performance trends Tuesday and stay in the S fund (YTD hit rate of 14 of 24 with returns of 8.52%). My other analysis is pointing in the same direction, so this is kind of like icing on the cake in terms of confirmation.

04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, ??????
---------------
Total: +3.79%

 

[ayla]

Since we got a -FV on the I-fund Friday, I'm going to make a play on post FV performance trends Tuesday and stay in the S fund (YTD hit rate of 14 of 24 with returns of 8.52%). My other analysis is pointing in the same direction, so this is kind of like icing on the cake in terms of confirmation.

I have a very different system set up (just very recently) based largely on CBOE option put calls and it is telling me that Tuesday is a good day for the S-fund also. Maybe with both systems pointing in that direction, it will be a good day. Crossing my fingers. I need some relief after yesterday (Friday).

 

[charmed855]

We got a +FV today, so I'm going with the averages and switching to the I fund for Wednesday. My main system is telling me to move to G so I'm hoping the move pays off. This play has been very effective this year (specifics below).

In 2007, we have had 24 +/- FV's (+/-FV being a +FV followed by a -FVC). 20 out of 24 post FV cycle days have yielded positive I-fund returns (total return of 8.98% YTD). That's an 83% hit average and the closest thing that I have seen to a sure thing.

04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, ??????? (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +3.79%

 

[charmed855]

Gotta love this intra-day volatility! :cheesy:

Another +/-FV today means I'll be spending another day in the I-fund this Thursday (see post FV analysis in this thread for rationale). My pattern analysis is also leading me towards the I-fund.

Recent post-FV returns:
04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +4.71%

 

[charmed855]

Sticking it out in I for another day. We've had three +FV's in a row which is unprecedented this year. It's as if this market wants to break out but keeps gapping/spiking down on morning news.


Recent post-FV returns:
04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +4.40%

 

[Steadygain]

I hope you're right Charmed - the I Fund has been my favorite.

 

[Birchtree]

Mark Hulbert monitors the insider corporate buying and they were buying heavily during the 366 point drop - there's a lot of cash around.

 

[Uptrend]

Hi Charmed Enjoy following your thread. Where do you get your FV information?

 

[charmed855]

Hi Charmed Enjoy following your thread. Where do you get your FV information?

If you're referring to the info below, these are actually the results (daily returns) of a theory I am tracking which basically says, go I-fund two days after a +FV and go S-fund two days after a -FV cycle. For instance, yesterdays +FV would send me to the I fund for Friday. There have been 25 +FV's this year, and 80% have resulted in positive returns (7.67% YTD) on the two day cycle. -FV's have better S-fund returns (26 occurances, 60% success yielding 9.45% YTD). It's something I dapple with and have been using more frequently over the past two months. A better strategy is being able to predict the +FV the day before it happens, but I haven't had much luck with that.

Recent post-FV returns:
04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +4.40%

 

[Steadygain]

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - European stock index futures rose on Thursday,recovering from the market's previous day's losses, on strong company earningsand as speculation of an imminent cut in the Federal Reserve discount ratehelped U.S. equities claw back from steep losses.

WAY TO GO CHARMED!!!! I WAS REALLY HOPING YOU WOULD COME OUT WINNING.

 

[charmed855]

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - European stock index futures rose on Thursday,recovering from the market's previous day's losses, on strong company earningsand as speculation of an imminent cut in the Federal Reserve discount ratehelped U.S. equities claw back from steep losses.

WAY TO GO CHARMED!!!! I WAS REALLY HOPING YOU WOULD COME OUT WINNING.

Thanks. After the -FVC the I fund should pay a few pennies. Tomorrow will be the real test and I admit to being a little nervous about the morning outlook. :worried: Hopefully the OSM rallies enough to cushion any jitters in the USM open.

 

[SCHAGAN]

Tomorrow will be the real test and I admit to being a little nervous about the morning outlook. :worried: Hopefully the OSM rallies enough to cushion any jitters in the USM open.

I'm hoping the outstanding numbers Microsoft posted will help too.

 

[charmed855]

We had a flurry of FV's this week and it looks like 3 out of 4 post FV days have been profitable. With that, It's back to my primary pattern analysis for Monday which is pointing me towards the C fund.

Recent post-FV returns:
04 Sep, +1.41% (-/+FV, S fund)
06 Sep, +0.50% (+/-FV, I Fund)
19 Sep, +0.95% (+/-FV, I Fund)
20 Sep, +0.08% (+/-FV, I Fund)
24 Sep, -0.64% (-/+FV, S fund)
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, ??????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------
Total: +4.52%[/quote]

 

[Steadygain]

I agree, plus it feels patriotic - I'm 100% C Fund as well. Thanks for your posts (and in this situation - for being a good influence).

 

[charmed855]

I'll be moving to the I fund for Tuesday. This move is based on the post FV performance that I've been blabbering about.


30 day post-FV return tally:
03 Oct, -0.43% (+/-FV, I Fund)
05 Oct, +1.53% (-/+FV, S fund)
11 Oct, +0.16% (+/-FV, I Fund)
12 Oct, +0.62% (-/+FV, S fund)
15 Oct, -0.39% (+/-FV, I Fund)
23 Oct, +0.92% (-/+FV, S Fund)
24 Oct, -0.31% (+/-FV, I Fund)
25 Oct, +0.12% (+/-FV, I Fund)
26 Oct, +2.09% (+/-FV, I Fund)
30 Oct, ???????? (+/-FV, I Fund)
---------------------------------
Total Post FV: +4.30%
Total I-Fund: +2.82%
Total S-Fund: +1.79%
Total C-Fund: +0.71%

 

[charmed855]

I wanted to post my take on what might be going wrong with the Ebbchart trading system but I also do not want my comments to be taken out of context so I will preface this post by saying that I have no ill will towards Ebb, this site or the system. I honestly respect all very much and have learned a great deal from all. My comments should be veiwed as constructive analysis, and I would discourage any Ebb bashing in response.

With that said, I remember first viewing this site back in January when Ebb was at the point of having worked a lot of kinks out of his system. The key to his system was quite simple. Two stop signs and you go to safety, one or zero stop signs and you go with the I fund. He also began to track the performance of each of these patterns:

This system of his was based on pattern analysis using historical data going back several years. He also back-tested this system several years with good results.

He then began to measure the performance of each pattern using a small sample size of data (Year-To-Date). As certain patterns began to appear stronger than others, he began to modify the system. I believe this is where things may have gone wrong. The system was designed using large amounts of historical data, but it has been altered drastically using a fairly small sample size of data (YTD). He added the S-fund as an option. He began make calls contrarian to his own system based off just a few months of data. The key to the system now looks like this:

I suspect as we move forward one of two things will happen.

1. The sample lot of his data in the pattern charts will eventually increase (one day at a time) which may result in the system becoming more accurate.
2. He will keep moving further and further from the original system that worked so well. If you had played his system according to the original pattern rules, you would be up 2% this month instead of down nearly 1%.

In theory, there is nothing wrong with using a small number of data points to "adjust" a system over time. The problem I see with the Ebbchart system is that the data set being used to adjust the pattern charts is year-to-date (not fixed) therefore it is constantly changing in length. Perhaps a constant one year or 6 month data set would be more appropriate.

There is a chance that the Ebbchart trading system is in a temporary rut and will eventually correct itself. I'd be interested to see how Ebb maintains system continuity as we move forward and into a new year.

Again, no disrespect to Ebb or anyone else. I like to tinker with systems and processes myself and also often find it challenging to maintain their consistency and integrity.

 

[RPM]

I wanted to post my take on what might be going wrong with the Ebbchart trading system but I also do not want my comments to be taken out of context so I will preface this post by saying that I have no ill will towards Ebb, this site or the system. I honestly respect all very much and have learned a great deal from all. My comments should be veiwed as constructive analysis, and I would discourage any Ebb bashing in response.

Again, no disrespect to Ebb or anyone else. I like to tinker with systems and processes myself and also often find it challenging to maintain their consistency and integrity.

I joined the board in March, and followed Ebb for awhile back then. My observation is that when his system is hot, it's really hot, but then, after that period of being right almost every day, it cools off for a couple of months before the cycle begins again. It's true with 12% and his market timing as well. So I don't think any system is foolproof, and I know Ebb only claims that his system is right around 60% of the time. Which is more than enough to get you the >20%/yr. Be patient, it will turn hot again soon!!

 

[Frixxxx]

.... So I don't think any system is foolproof, and I know Ebb only claims that his system is right around 60% of the time. Which is more than enough to get you the >20%/yr. Be patient, it will turn hot again soon!!

Patience is a virtue on this one.....I watched Ebb early on and was not happy with what I saw in February....I unfortunately, waited until September (after 8+% August) to join the masses. I recognized some of the same things that charmed has mentioned from reverse-engineering some of the calls. I have not followed Ebb 100%, but I do know that it is an invaluable tool when making my educated guess. I stand behind ebb for the years' performance and hope that it comes back after the fed announcements and good news. That is, if we have good news. I smell the stench of fear in the markets and may sideline after Uncle Bernanke slides the mark.