caymanbrac12's account talk

[Birchtree]

Right now I'm just holding my cheeks and I am using both hands. 1437 solidifies the bottom. If we end up rocketing I'm strapped in to enjoy the g forces. It's time to buy more PVH.

 

[camper65]

Right now I'm just holding my cheeks and I am using both hands. 1437 solidifies the bottom. If we end up rocketing I'm strapped in to enjoy the g forces. It's time to buy more PVH.

(Birchtree, a positive force in the universe!!!!) (THANK YOU!!!!!)

 

[caymanbrac12]

(Birchtree, a positive force in the universe!!!!) (THANK YOU!!!!!)

hey camper65 why don't you add some fundamental or technical analysis to the party so you can give us an idea of how to make some real money. :nuts: It's easy to pat someone on the back but let's see what you thiink about the market not Birchtree. I can always go to his account talk anytime.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Good luck to everyone - let's all make some money. Got a nice vacation planned (leaving tomorrow to go to Tuscany - I hear they have some pretty good wine in Italy :nuts and will pretty much be staying out of this for a couple of weeks and try (very hard) not to think about the market and what I should or shouldn't do.

best

Craig

 

[caymanbrac12]

Having a great time in Italy but can't help myself playing with the market. Unfortunately I'm a junkie.

We came back yesterday after breaking support of 1320 and although the major averages staged a significant late day rally on Tuesday which erased substantial losses earlier in the day I think the market is going to eventually head lower again after any short term oversold bounce ends.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 have now developed bearish looking Double Top patterns during the past month. The Dow briefly dropped below its key short term support level near 12060 on Tuesday but then reversed in the afternoon. If the Dow does undergo a brief oversold bounce the next few days ( which it is) I would expect resistance to occur at its 20 Day EMA near 12400. Meanwhile once the short term oversold bounce ends I expect this will be followed by an eventual retest of the January 23rd low just above 1160​

It seems the S&P 500 has also developed a bearish looking Double Top pattern during the the past month as well. On Tuesday it briefly dropped below its key short term support level near 1320 but then reversed to the upside in the afternoon. If a short term oversold bounce occurs in the S&P 500 I would look for resistance to occur at its 20 Day EMA near 1355. Once the short term oversold bounce ends I expect this will eventually be followed by a retest of the January 23rd low near 1270.​

As far as the Nasdaq it got within 18 points of its January 23rd low on Tuesday before reversing to the upside in the afternoon. If the Nasdaq undergoes an oversold bounce over the next few days I expect it will encounter resistance either at its 20 Day EMA around 2320 or along its downward sloping trend line near 2340. Just like the Dow and S&P 500 once the oversold bounce ends I expect the Nasdaq is eventually going to drop back to or below its January 23rd low which was near 2200.​

Also for those that follow Linear Regression notice the Nasdaq has been encountering resistance along its downward trending Linear Regression Line during the past month which currently is nearing the 2340 level. Also notice that the Nasdaq found support on January 23rd at the -2.0 Standard Deviation Level near 2200. Currently the -2.0 Standard Deviation level is nearing 2100 and if the Nasdaq eventually takes out the January 23rd low I expect it may drop back to this level. ​

To sum things ( we have heard this how may times now) up we could see a brief oversold bounce occur over the next few days however once it ends this may be followed by another significant move lower with an eventual retest of the January 23rd lows within a few weeks. ​

There seems everyday to be bad news but hopefully we get this bottom out of the way and get a nice 25% run on everything. :nuts:​

craig​

I'm sipping a glass of Barolo - a very nice red so please pardon me my incoherency. ​

 

[Asylum]

Having a great time in Italy...

I'm sipping a glass of Barolo . ​

No pix for those of us chained to our desks?

 

[caymanbrac12]

This young lady who was nice enough to accompany me - we are only using a camcorder :nuts: and she asked me to keep things private so we are just enjoying the countryside and the terrific food and wine and if anyone gets a chance this is a very beautiful country too visit especially if you have good company to share it with.


Best to all

 

[caymanbrac12]

For the near future maybe here is one scenerio:

My guess is that we could see an oversold bounce develop once the Dow and S&P 500 drop back to their January 23rd lows which were 11630 (Dow) and 1270 (S&P 500). Thus I woud be looking at at approximate entry prices at the following levels in the major ETFs. 115.82 (Dow), 40.62 (QQQQ) and 126.10 (SPY).

The major averages are becoming rather oversold and the Nasdaq has already dropped back to its January 23rd low. However so far neither the Dow or S&P 500 have retested their January 23rd lows as of yet but that could change next week. We will see. :blink:

Also, Meanwhile fear has increased somewhat among investors as the recent 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio has now reached the 1.20 level. In the past when the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio has risen to or above the 1.20 level some significant oversold rallies (generally 10% or more) have developed within a few weeks in the S&P 500 . The last time the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio reached the 1.2 level was in the 3rd week of January 08 which was followed by a sharp 10% oversold bounce in the S&P 500 .

 

[caymanbrac12]

Well got the old letter as of the end of march no more electronic ift's only the TSP-50 forms. If this doesn't get squared away out it all comes and into many, many more and better selections. They can kiss my ass. These clowns are nothing more than an annoyance so I will see if I can make a computer ift transfer after the EOM and if not pulling everything out and have the a million more choice. The only advantage so far that I have seen is the ability to do a daily ift and the low cost.

The overall choices are pathetic and they treat government workers of which I am not one like a bunch of fuxking idiots who know nothing about investing. Here Bush is wanting people to take a bigger hand in the retirement but let's see how many restrictions we can put on.

There really are some real assholes working at the TSP who don't have anyones best interest at heart. They assume that government workers are too stupid to grasp the concept of managing their own accounts and such difficult concepts as true diversification and account rebalancing and have to have their hands held or in this case tied behind their backs They should be embarrassed that they call diversification G, F, C, S, I. The choices they give gov't workers are pathetic and nothing but a friggin joke. Anyone who invests seriously knows this and all this L funds Bullshit is a differerent percentile mix of the same 5 crappy funds. Jesus Christ I have a friend who works for the State of Va. and even he has like 17 choices for diversification.

Well it was fun for a while but those fuxking TSP idiots killed it.


Craig

 

[350zCommTech]

Did they say when you would be able to make transfers again or no more forever?

 

[caymanbrac12]

Did they say when you would be able to make transfers again or no more forever?

"According to our records, you exceeded the three IFT limit in February. Therefore, effective noon eastern time on March 31, 2008, you will be prohibited from making IFTs electronically, but you may request IFTs by mail until the "structural policy restrictions are implemented" ( whatever that means). The requirement that you submit you requests by mail applies regardless of where you want to move your funds, including transfers into the G fund."

 

[Show-me]

Fill one out every day and make a 1% change each day going back and forth from the G and F funds. LOL Sorry, I'm easily entertained by things like that.

 

[350zCommTech]

"According to our records, you exceeded the three IFT limit in February. Therefore, effective noon eastern time on March 31, 2008, you will be prohibited from making IFTs electronically, but you may request IFTs by mail until the "structural policy restrictions are implemented" ( whatever that means). The requirement that you submit you requests by mail applies regardless of where you want to move your funds, including transfers into the G fund."

Thanks,

I'll probably get mine tomorrow or Monday.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Thanks,

I'll probably get mine tomorrow or Monday.

It was sent certified mail so don't sign for it.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

It was sent certified mail so don't sign for it.

would that have worked?..my wife signed for mine.

 

[caymanbrac12]

would that have worked?..my wife signed for mine.

http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/611820

 

[Hardcorps]

I followed the rules in February.Not this month though, i have 5 ift's already.Suppose i'll get mine next month.I'll be trading away until April 30th.I work for the Post Office, you should see the look on some of their faces when you bring up anything about the TSP.Most have lost tens of thousands of dollars since October.They can't figure out why i am making money.News flash for them buy and holders do poorly in a bear market.The TSP Board wants us all to be just like them sitting in the C,S,I, or L Funds just getting burned.Thanks but no thanks.That's exactly why privatizing Social Security will never fly.Most Americans are clueless financially.Yes you can refuse any piece of mail you want,but, do not tell your mailman the recipient does not live there when they do.I will then deliver no more mail for that person.Your mailman will not care if you refuse it, happens all the time.

 

[caymanbrac12]

I expect I will be getting one soon too..

Question..

Since I'm totally CSRS and joined TSP voluntarily for a little nest egg savings and am under no obligation to it, like funds matching from my employer..

How much of a penalty is there if I want to close my TSP account and take my money elsewhere?..I have a little over a 100K built up so far.

I would talk to your accountant. Any monies you accumulate tax deferred if you are under 59 1/2 I believe you pay a 10% penalty plus ordinary income tax if you just take it out on the monies you have earned but have not payed taxes on. If you put money in the CSRS with after tax dollars you only pay taxes on what it has earned not the cost basis or original dollars but I would get my accountant to figure it out - they have programs to do it real quick.

Another option is if you have a qualified 401k somewhere else or traditional ira or really any type of qualified plan you can roll everything over to that plan without penalty as long as the monies don't touch your hands. (The IRS doesn't trust you )You can have Vanguard or Schwab or whomever as the the custodian if you are not happy with you current custodian. But again always check with you accountant.

Craig

 

[nnuut]

I expect I will be getting one soon too..

Question..

Since I'm totally CSRS and joined TSP voluntarily for a little nest egg savings and am under no obligation to it, like funds matching from my employer..

How much of a penalty is there if I want to close my TSP account and take my money elsewhere?..I have a little over a 100K built up so far.

CSRS, NON Air trafic Controller or other special catigory such as Police etc.

If you are 59 1/2 years old you can take a one time In Service Withdrawal [any part or all] if you do this, after you retire you are not elgable for a 1 time withdrawal, but can take monthly withdrawals until you reach 70 years old, then you have to take out a mandatory amount monthly.

If you can retire before 59 1/2, disability, early retirement or (I think) emergency, 1st Home purchase and Edcuation and are NOT 59 1/2 years old you must pay a 10% penalty and 20% of the top for federal tax.

 

[nnuut]

And thank you partner..I guess I'm screwed to stay in until 59.5

I am too, I took one a year ago, so now I have to wait until I retire, then I can withdraw it all, but am not allowed to do another one time partial withdrawal. Might not have made that part perfectly clear in my response.

NO WAY OUT
Is that unfair?
I want my money! NOW!​