caymanbrac12's account talk

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Well said. You can always catch profit another day, but the lose takes two days of recovery. Keep the gains and sit tight.:)
 
Well I had a chance to look at the numbers and Bernanke - I wish he would just keep his mouth shut - here are some observations FWIW

The overall action in the market looks similar to what occurred from mid October through late December. The Dow sold off from mid October through late November which was followed by a 2 week oversold rally. Then the Dow went through another brief sell off which was followed by a brief oversold rally that preceded another significant downward move which didn't end until January 23rd .

Since the January 23rd low the Dow rallied strongly for 2 weeks which was then followed by a brief sharp sell off .This has been followed by a brief rally over the past 3 days . Thus the overall pattern since the January 23rd low looks rather similar to what occurred from late November through late December which preceded the substantial sell off from late December until the January 23rd low occurred . If this pattern repeats itself then we could see the January 23rd retested or exceeded in the coming weeks.

In the near term the Dow held support near the 12100 level and has rallied over the past 3 days. It's possible the Dow could still rise a little more before another substantial sell off develops however I expect it's going to encounter strong resistance at its declining 50 Day EMA and 2.0 Standard Deviation Band which is nearing the 12700 level.

As for the S&P 500 it held support near the 1320 level and has rallied back above its 20 Day EMA . Overall the S&P 500 is exhibiting a similar pattern as talked about above with the Dow. If the S&P 500 trends a little higher in the near term I expect it will not rise above the high made 9 trading days ago near 1395 which is also close to its 2.0 Standard Deviation Band and declining 50 Day EMA .

The Nasdaq has risen back to its 20 Day EMA and if it rises a little more I expect it will encounter strong resistance at its high made 9 trading days ago near 2420 which also coincides with its 2.0 Standard Deviation Band .

To sum things up it's possible the major averages could trend a little higher in the near term however once the most recent bounce ends we could see more selling pressure develop with an eventual retest of the January 23rd lows in the coming weeks. I'm still convinced that a retest is in the cards so I'm playing the short term rallies very close to the vest.

This is how I'm going to play it and hopefully flipping this coin will come out on my side for a change. :D Also what a pain in the ass playing within this TSP 3 card monte(IFT's) deal. They really did us a big favor. :sick:

Craig​
 
Is anyone still trading as usual even if you got the 2 trade a month letter? Just wondering if there is a grace period or if strict enforcement is the deal.

And just a side note how do they know if you even received these letters?Last time I checked they were not sent certified return receipt requested.

Craig
 
Well it is nice to see a beagle who has never won win the Westminster Dog Show. Uno, a 3 yr old beagle with a very appropriate name.

ON to some market observations. Ol' Ben is at it again so what are you going to do??? Let's look at bearish and bullish sentiment.

Since the mid 1990’s significant rallies have developed from oversold conditions when the % of Bearish Investment Advisors has exceeded the % of Bullish Investment Advisors by 5% or more. There have only been 4 occurrences since the mid 1990’s (Spring of 1997, Fall of 1998, Fall of 2001 and the Fall of 2002) when the Bearish Investment Advisors exceeded the Bullish Investment Advisors by more than 5% . In each instance significant extended rallies followed soon after with the S&P 500 gaining at least 20% in each case . Currently the difference between the % of Bearish and Bullish Investment Advisors is nearing zero so I will be watching this closely in the coming weeks to see if the Bearish Advisors will exceed the Bullish Advisors especially if the January 23 lows are eventually retested. Bob Keyla has some interesting ideas on this topic.​


Keep in mind back in the 1990’s the S&P 500 rallied strongly from 1995 through the middle part of 1998 and then went through a significant correction and lost over 20% in just 7 weeks. This was then followed by an oversold rally for 3 weeks before more selling pressure developed which eventually lead to the development of a bullish Double Bottom pattern as the initial low was retested and exceeded. This was then followed by a significant move higher from late 1998 through early 2000.
I know at this time things don’t look good for the market in the longer term however we can’t totally discount the possibility of a similar pattern developing in the weeks ahead especially if the % of Bearish Investment Advisors eventually exceed the % of Bullish Investment Advisors by 5% or more.

In the near both the Dow and S&P 500 held support this week at key short term support levels. The Dow held support early in the week near 12100 and then rallied for 3 days before pulling back on Thursday and Friday. Once again the key support level to watch next week will be around 12100. If the Dow can hold support above this level then it may still have a shot at rallying back to the 12600 to 12700 level which corresponds to its 38.2% Retracement Level and declining 50 Day EMA. Meanwhile if the Dow were to drop below the 12100 level then that would likely lead to an eventual retest of the Janury 23 low near 11600 which could be a real possiblity.​

The S&P 500 held support early in the week near 1320 and then rallied through Wednesday before pulling back Thursday into Friday. If the S&P 500 can hold support above the 1320 level then it still has a chance of rallying back to the 1385 to 1395 range which corresponds to its 38.2% Retracement Level and declining 50 Day EMA. Meanwhile if the S&P 500 were to take out the 1320 level then I would expect an eventual retest of the January 23 low near 1270.

As far as the Nasdaq it rallied back to just above its 20 Day EMA this week and then encountered resistance and pulled back from Thursday into Friday around 2320. In the near term one of two things will probably occur. The first scenario would be for the Nasdaq to rise solidly above its 20 Day EMA (around 2360) and rally back to around the 2440 to 2450 range which corresponds to its declining 50 Day EMA and 38..2% Retracement Level. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the Nasdaq to retest or drop below its January 23 low which was around 2220.

So what I'm looking at bottom line is any change in the weeks ahead if the % of Bearish Investment Advisors eventually exceeds the % of Bullish Investment Advisors. Keep in mind for this to happen the major averages would likely have to retest or drop below their January 23rd lows IMHO.
Nothing will be straight up or down and there might be some good opportunities long or short but this might be one scenerio of how this thing gets played out.


Craig​
 
I sound like broken record but this always sticks with me:

Remember it is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Don't let the fear of missing control you.

Cut your losses early and often. ;)[/quote]

Caymanbrac12,

This really hit home when I read it (even though I had read similar messages in the past). It's hard to have the mentality of a new retiree and keep in mind that I'm no longer contributing, just doing IFTs. I'm getting used to the idea, and need to think more now in terms of capital preservation. Appreciate your postings and these 3 messages are very important to me today.

CorMaGa34

I
 
CorMaGa34 said:
I sound like broken record but this always sticks with me:

Remember it is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Don't let the fear of missing control you.

Cut your losses early and often. ;)
Click to expand...

Caymanbrac12,

This really hit home when I read it (even though I had read similar messages in the past). It's hard to have the mentality of a new retiree and keep in mind that I'm no longer contributing, just doing IFTs. I'm getting used to the idea, and need to think more now in terms of capital preservation. Appreciate your postings and these 3 messages are very important to me today.

CorMaGa34

It's a 2 to 1 ratio, riding it down is a NO NO!!:cool:
 
Quote from Mojo:

"Yes lets not rain on the one day possible I parade lol.

Who here is talking long? I'm commited only to a 1 day play.

My only concern for the S&P right now is that it doesn't tank early tomorrow and drive down the FTSE close tomorrow if it happens to be up.

We've aready committed is it ok if we enjoy it for a day when it looks like we maaaaay have made a good 1 day play in a crappy market?

I'll worry about1395-1420 after tomorrow.

I don't think anyone on here thinks they have it figured out, I know I don't.

Take care


Quote:
Originally Posted by caymanbrac12
Let's not get too pumped up here and not trying to rain on anyone's parade but so far the market has been sh!% for the longs YTD. Like 12% said we will probably start with a small in the hole fv for tomorrow which hopefully the OSM's will overcome (with hopefully no -fv at end of the day) but the volatility of this market and the fact that we still have to overcome once and for all and hold the breakthrough on 1360 resistance for the s&p let's not get too excited because we are sitting right on that resistance. If we break through I would expect 1395 and then 1420 to be our next resting points - let's hope we make it but one thing I've learned is to keep the emotion out of your market decisions and what happens in between because just when you think you got even 1 day figured out it (the market) will kick your ass every time cause it sure looked that way at the start of the day. I'm 60% long CSI and I'm leaving a % in the I fund only for tomorrow and banking the rest and this is just a little step out of a big hole so not unhappy to be in the market today but it's just one day and it doesn't mean crap. I've been very conservative this year with the TSP but running some shorts and ultra shorts on the index in my trading account since the Dow was 13800 as a hedge so things aren't too bad. Also, just as long as we hold support at 12100 on the Dow and play the in and out game in this trading range and if you are real nimble and REAL LUCKY you can probably make a couple of bucks.

Let's remember where the dow was not too long ago - was it really around 14200?? We got a ways to go with a helluva alot of unknowns on the table that could make things real ugly. ;)

Good luck to all

Just some observations that involve more than just tomorrow.

Based on what I'm seeing it appears the major averages are setting up to make a substantial move in one direction before much longer. (Really stepping out on a limb there :D). The Dow is developing a descending Triangle patterns as its downward and upward sloping trend lines are converging. This type of pattern usually signals a substantial move is approaching. My guess is one of two things will happen within the next week or two. The first scenario would be for the Dow to break to the upside out of its descending Triangle pattern and rally back initially to its declining 50 Day EMA near 12675 and possibly as high as its 50% Retracement Level near 12900. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the Dow to break to the downside out of its descending Triangle pattern which would likely lead to a retest of its January 23d low just above 11600.​

The Nasdaq is also exhibiting a similar descending Triangle pattern. If the Nasdaq breaks to the upside out of its descending Triangle pattern then look for it to rally back to the 2440 to 2450 area which coincides with its declining 50 Day EMA and 38.2% Retracement Level - if it goes the other way look for a retest of the Jan 23rd lows around 2200.​

Same scenerio for the S&P if it breaks out of the triangle look for 1395 or possibly as high as its 50% Retracement Level near 1420. If it goes the other way 1270 is the target. 50/50 chance. Even if we run it up I'm still betting we get a retest of the Jan 23 lows - 11,600 but that just IMHO.​

Craig​

(Yea, I'm actually trying to dumb it out not just one day but to get a rough idea of what the hell is actually going on from time to time so I can actually let my rare winner run longer than one day. Sometimes right - sometimes wrong but even the blind squirrel finds the nut ever now and again so occasionally I do try to look past one day. Hope that helps ;))​
 
Paladin said:
Below is from a link provided by Birchtree. The author suggests that when a Triangle Pattern pushes all the way to the Apex, the resulting breakout loses much of its energy. Something to watch as we approach the imminent breakout... :blink:​




Above is the SPY. Since mid January the SPY has been drawing a Triangle Pattern. Notice that this Triangle pattern has almost pushed out into the Apex. When a Triangle Pattern pushes to the Apex the resulting breakout loses much of its energy. Therefore the huge volatility we have seen in January may be replaced with low volatility during February.
http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
Click to expand...

here is some food for thought:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/WhyWallStreetRescuesAreFailing.aspx
 
existing home sales on Monday could be a market mover at 10:00 est but we are now at the low end of this ping pong like triangle so we could get a little oversold bounce on Monday but home sales could be the killer - probably will play both sides of the coin. ;)
 
Isn't it funny how 1 hour before the market closes ol Charlie Gasparino comes on and says with all these caveats that there Might be a bailout for bond insurer Ambac Financial by a bunch of different banks next week.

Here the market is down most of the down in triple digits and if this ain't manipulation I don't no what is. If good ol' Charlie had come on and said the deal WAS DONE that's one things but just to chuck out some bullshit rumor that MAYBE a deal was perhaps maybe later etc. done but basically who knows is totally horseshit and for CNBC to allow it is pretty irresponsible. Report it after the bell if you want to sell that crap. Dylan Ratigan and that fat ass Maria B. looked like they were about to jump through hoops. Oh, excuse me they already do. I have never head one idea on that show the less and less I watch it that has ever made me a dime.

This is comparable to the time Maria Bartiromo was interview Chicago fed governor Mascow and "let slip" that at a dinner in conversation with Ben Bernanke that the market took it the wrong way what he said in a speech earlier. This was about a year ago. When she tells Mascow this she goes "gee look at the traders yelling on the floor" like she didn't have a clue and of course she pulls this horseshit 2 hours before the market closes - of course these correspondents which I say tongue in cheek "would never do anything to purposely affect the market - of course they have no idea the market would react to rumor and innuendo.":rolleyes:

I have never seen a bigger bunch of clowns in my life including that fool Jim Cramer. CNBC really are nothing but a bunch of cheerleading assclowns.

Just my humble opinion.:laugh: At least I say things in a calm and collected way. :D

If I had to depend on these idiots for financial input of anykind I would be sleeping on a grate in Washington, D.C. (hopefully on a heated grate):laugh:

Craig
 
Birchtree said:
Somehow I suspect Maria can really put out the great shakes.
Click to expand...
Now that is funny Birchtree. :D I have a feeling if Maria was in the mood one of those "shakes" if they made contact would knock you across the room. :laugh: No doubt if someone pissed her off she would put foot to ass real quick like.
 
I feel very lucky to have been in CSI 70% but this was about as pure luck as you get. Anyone who takes credit for picking there allocation for today because they had an idea that S&P was going to maintain.. it's so stupid I can't even say it. Gasparino came out with his little proclamation on friday at about 3:00 pm so the TSP changes were already set. And today S&p reaffirming AAA rating for Ambac with a caveat didn't hit till 2:15 AFTER everyone put in there changes if any ( I went to G because of PPI etc) We ain't even close to being out of the woods yet. This is what they call one wobbly W if you look at it on the charts.

In the near term during the past 10 trading days the Dow has traded basically between 12550 and 12100 which is a key short term support area. If the Dow continues to hold support above the 12100 level and attempts to rally look for initial resistance near 12600 which is at its 38.2% Retracement Level and declining 50 Day EMA . If the Dow could rise above the 12600 level then its next area of resistance would either be at its 50% Retracement Level around 12900 or at its 200 Day EMA at 13000.

The S&P 500 has been trading between 1370 and 1320 the past 10 trading days as the 1320 level has been a key support area and we closed right around the 1379 level. If the S&P 500 remains above the 1320 level and attempts to rally look for initial resistance near 1395 which is where its declining 50 Day EMA and 38.2% Retracement Level resisde at. If the S&P 500 were to break above the 1395 area then its next area off upside resistance would be at its 50% Retracement Level near 1420.

If the Nasdaq can get a bump from where it has been encountering resistance near its declining 20 Day EMA around 2350 then it could rally back to its declining 50 Day EMA around 2430 or its 38.2% Retracement Level near 2450.

craig
 
Paladin said:
I posted the above on Saturday, but of course I had no idea that S&P would announce on Monday that it was keeping Ambac's AAA rating. I just felt that this was one rumor that had a good chance of coming true because it was something that Ambac and the regulators & banks had been working on for awhile. :cool:
Click to expand...

I'm also talking about Charlie Gasparino's "rumor" that maybe, perhap, etc that a number of banks were coming to the rescue. If I made my investment decisions on rumor I might as well let it ride at vegas and before Charlie came out with his 3:00 pm friday report could you please post a link prior to Charlie's comments on Friday that Ambac and the regulators and banks have been working on this for a while.

Thanks

Also if you have any info that S&P moody's was going to report on the reiteration of the AAA prior to their report could you please post that like as well.

Craig
 
appreciate the perspective Paladin.

From my perspective this is what I anticipate:

The market is becoming rather overbought and with the Dow and S&P 500 nearing their 2.0 Standard Error Bands which are 12800 and 1400 respectively I believe we need to be on the look out for a potential sell off before much longer. Thus I would still stay in cash and not take a new position even though the market has moved higher the past three trading days.

Goldman Sachs believes that the next shoe to drop could be in commercial real estate, where up to $183 billion in loan losses could be sustained. With only about half the estimated losses reported in the financials (nearly $200 billion so far), lending standards are likely to become even tighter as bank balance sheets come under even greater stress.

Here are the significant risks to the economy and markets:
​
  • Credit markets. Conditions are still deteriorating and evidence is mounting that the problems are spreading to the broader economy. The markets still need clarity as to the depth and breadth of potential losses.
  • House prices. We see a very dim light at the end of the tunnel. Until house price declines at least stabilize, it will be difficult to assess the risk in the credit markets.
  • Job growth. Falling U.S. house prices dampen consumer spending. This raises the risk of a self-feeding downward spiral in corporate earnings and job growth.
  • Inflation. Although past increases in inflation (due in large part to high oil prices and weakness in the U.S. dollar) are expected to moderate, a jump in inflation expectations could prevent the Fed from continuing aggressive rate cuts
  • choppiness will abound in my opinion
 
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a little more technical digging:





The major averages are now trying to break out to the upside out of their descending Triangle patterns that we have seen and has been talked about last week. The question is will these breakouts follow through or not the rest of the week?
The Dow has risen above its 38.2% Retracment Level and 50 Day EMA and if it follows through to the upside there is a possibility it will stall out either at its 50% Retracement Level just above 12900 or at its 200 Day EMA near 13000. Meanwhile if the Dow stalls out over the next few days and then reverses to the downside look for support to come in around the 12100 area. ​




The Nasdaq is having a hard time breaking out of its descending Triangle pattern and ran into resistance on Tuesday at its 23.6% Retracement Level near 2360 . If the Nasdaq can break above its 23.6% Retracement Level then it may rally up to its declining 50 Day EMA near 2420. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq fails to break above the 2360 level in the next couple of days and then reverses to the downside that will likely lead to an eventual retest of the January 23rd low near 2200. ​

As for the S&P 500 it also attempting to break out of its descending Triangle pattern to the upside but it encountered resistance on Tuesday just below 1390 which coincides with its 38.2% Retracement Level and declining 50 Day EMA . If the S&P 500 can break above the 1390 level then I expect it will rise up to its 50% Retracement Level near 1420. Meanwhile if the S&P 500 fails to break above the 1390 level in the next couple of days and then reverses to the downside look for support around the 1320 level. ​

Although it's certainly possible the major averages could move higher over the next few days one thing that bears watching for those that follow Linear Regression and Standard Error Bands is the S&P 500's +2.0 Standard Error Band is around 1400 . The last two times the S&P 500 has risen above its +2.0 Standard Error Band this was followed by a sell off. ​


Also notice the Dow is nearing its +2.0 Standard Error Band as well and also sold off the last two times it reached its +2.0 Standard Error Band . Thus don't be surprised if the Dow and S&P 500 reach their +2.0 Standard Error Bands within the next few days that a sell off occurs shortly thereafter in the 800 to 1200 range for the DOW as an example and about an 80 point sell off in the S&P.​

Personally I think we may have a shorting opportunity in the offing no matter how much Rah Rah Birchtree rolls out. :D​
 
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