caymanbrac12's account talk

[poolman]

This is impressive. I'm into car's myself. I have a 2001 WS6 TransAm with some goodies. Wife has an Acura TLS. Both Nice.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_ANak8V7bo0

 

[caymanbrac12]

I have seen some modified WS6 TransAms with that ramair and the other goodies and I've seen guys with little modifications but sticky tires running 9's and 10's quarters and the look from the front with the ramair is very nice. My dream car back in the early 90's was the acura nsx and it still in my opinion is one of the best looking cars on the road. I believe is was designed off a f-16 fighter jet cockpit among other things with superlight weight metal. Acura puts out a great product.

I went with the supra twin turbo because they were so easy to modify to get the turbo boost up. Some of those cars are putting out 1000hp. Look at a dynotest and the boost literally along with horse power and torque goes straight up. Toyota made a great car there with a very strong bottom end. Mine was a 94 white with the wing of course and BBS rims .

 

[poolman]

I have seen some modified WS6 TransAms with that ramair and the other goodies and I've seen guys with little modifications but sticky tires running 9's and 10's quarters and the look from the front with the ramair is very nice. My dream car back in the early 90's was the acura nsx and it still in my opinion is one of the best looking cars on the road. I believe is was designed off a f-16 fighter jet cockpit among other things with superlight weight metal. Acura puts out a great product.

I went with the supra twin turbo because they were so easy to modify to get the turbo boost up. Some of those cars are putting out 1000hp. Look at a dynotest and the boost literally along with horse power and torque goes straight up. Toyota made a great car there with a very strong bottom end. Mine was a 94 white with the wing of course and BBS rims .

I must say though, I don't drive my ws6 very much, instead my conversion van. Everytime I get into the ws6 I feel the need for speed and it's a good thing I'm in tune with myself because it's a ticket waiting to happen. LOL... True though..

I think the Wife was going to get the acura nsx but heard that if you have a flat tire you must buy a whole new wheel including tire. That's what she told me.

 

[kar_crazy]

I have seen some modified WS6 TransAms with that ramair and the other goodies and I've seen guys with little modifications but sticky tires running 9's and 10's quarters and the look from the front with the ramair is very nice. My dream car back in the early 90's was the acura nsx and it still in my opinion is one of the best looking cars on the road. I believe is was designed off a f-16 fighter jet cockpit among other things with superlight weight metal. Acura puts out a great product.

I went with the supra twin turbo because they were so easy to modify to get the turbo boost up. Some of those cars are putting out 1000hp. Look at a dynotest and the boost literally along with horse power and torque goes straight up. Toyota made a great car there with a very strong bottom end. Mine was a 94 white with the wing of course and BBS rims .

my camaro runs in 9s with nos and i still drive it to work just to keep rif raf down a co worker drives a z06 and liked pouring salt so i drove ole blue up here and told him pull out his title n let the car speak for itself of course he backed down when we walked out to parking lot, and says he was funning me we call him big joe stands about 6'13 but he does have a cool ride

 

[caymanbrac12]

Going back through all of the years when the S&P 500 finished the month of January with a negative return, 70% of the time (12 out of 17 occurrences) the month of February ended up with a negative return as well.
Meanwhile this has been followed a 1150 point rally in the Dow over the past 8 trading days. The most likely scenario to play out in the coming weeks is for the Dow to stall out either at its declining 50 Day EMA near 12900 or its declining 200 Day EMA near 13100 which would then be followed by an eventual retest of the January 23rd low near 11630.

The Nasdaq made a bottom near 2200 and has rallied nearly 10% or just over 200 points in 8 trading days. Just like the Dow I expect the Nasdaq will eventually retest its January 23rd low at some point in the weeks ahead. However in the near term if it continues higher look for it to encounter resistance either at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 2450 or at its declining 50 Day EMA just below 2520.

As for the S&P 500 it has also rallied 10% or 125 points since the January 23d low and has risen above its declining 20 Day EMA . If the S&P 500 continues higher in the near term look for resistance to occur either at its declining 50 Day EMA near 1420 or at its declining 200 Day EMA just above 1450. Just like the Dow and Nasdaq I expect in the coming weeks the S&P 500 will eventually retest its January 23rd low near 1270 once this oversold rally ends.​

Thus I have a suspicion that once the oversold rally ends the January23rd lows will end up being retested at some point in the future IMHO.

There might be some short signals in the near future so I will be keeping a close look at some key factors.

 

[Reactive1]

I agree. It's simply too simple to think that we would experience such a profound downturn, as if there was no underlying reason for it, just to return to the range of the previous highs. That would be free money if the market worked with that kind of simplicity.

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps we were simply under the pressure applied by a stretched 4-year cycle nesting. If that happened to be the case we now have enough thrust to claim escape velocity. I could actually appreciate a small snap back this week to feed my hungry dividends that are coming due to reinvest. Snort.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Well guys did a little shorting today and thinking it could go either way so I might play it just a little safer. Only 15% csi today so no big hit on theTSP - stopped out of a lot of my long positions made a little on index shorting but I got a gut feeling this may not be over. We may be up tomorrow even big (I'm in 40%) and some small short positions so hedging a little bit but I don't thing the bottom has been seen yet as stated in my post above. Some of these stocks are going to get real cheap and I will be DCA and I wouldn't be suprised to see a 20%-30% jump real quick in the DOW but until consumer sentiment comes around and the New York Times quits printing everyday that we just about in a depression and the chicken little "sky is falling routine" we could have a little time on our hands.

craig

 

[caymanbrac12]

Who doesn't like trying to figure out market bottoms using different info from IBD etc with some help from the bullish bearish indicators. Just some observations:

The bounce from the January 23rd lows seems to be over as selling pressure redeveloped on Monday and has continued through Wednesday. (Just when you think you are out of the woods) The Dow stalled out below its 50 Day EMA near 12800 and has fallen over 700 points in 3 days. It's possible we could see the Dow briefly bounce back to its 20 Day EMA in the near term which is around the 12500 level however in the longer term it certainly looks like it could possibly retest the January 23rd low near 11630 at some point.

The Nasdaq stalled out right at its 20 Day EMA (around 2400) and has fallen nearly 120 points in 3 days and is only 80 points away from retesting its January 23rd low.

As for the S&P 500 it briefly rose above its 20 Day EMA and has now fallen around 70 points in 3 days. If the S&P 500 undergoes a brief bounce in the near term it could possible encounter resistance at its 20 Day EMA near 1370. Meanwhile in the longer term it appears likely the S&P 500 will retest its January 23rd low near 1270.

the 3 Week Average of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment has done a good job in the past of signaling nearing bottoms when it has risen above the 35% level - read IBD. The latest 3 Week Average Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment has risen to 32% which is still below the key 35% level so based on this it appears the major averages may have to drop below their January 23rd lows before a significant bottom occurs. Bob Kleyla has used this technical measure to some fair success along with all the other crap we look at.

As a side note to explain further also this info is available in the IBD going back to the mid 1990's when the 3 week average of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment has risen at or above the 35% level this has signaled a nearing bottom followed by a substantial rally (20% or more) in the S&P 500. (So far not a bad indicator) Currently the 3 week average of Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment standing at 32% (still below the 35% level) is one reason why probably the January 23rd lows may have to be retested or even broken before a significant bottom occurs. I'm kinda playing it this way but who knows the market sometimes has a mind of its own.

 

[Birchtree]

Thankyou for that wonderful synopsis - you're coming on great.

 

[caymanbrac12]

here is a picture of my white BMW M5 with some other friends who are into cars - an 04 viper and 01 550 ferrari ( the black one) - just for the car guys and girls - just can't get it out of my blood.

 

[southbeachrat]

Oh!! that BMR is sweet. I get to drive my lady's 325CI on occasion and always aspired to the M5...Someday.......

Your friends have great taste also.

I have elected to put my spare change into antique aircraft instead. Nothing like the wind in your face in an old biplane on a spring day!

 

[presskh]

here is a picture of my white BMW M5 with some other friends who are into cars - an 04 viper and 01 550 ferrari ( the black one) - just for the car guys and girls - just can't get it out of my blood.

I'm green with envy - I have a 1994 530i (E34) I bought in 1997. Maybe when I retire and quit having to save for college expenses, I can have a late "mid-life" crisis and get a newer one.

 

[caymanbrac12]

If the major averages were above their 200 Day MA's I would certainly be looking to go Long on Friday. However since they are below their 200 Day MA's and in a longer term downtrend trend usually at least for me can lead to a higher failure rate. It's possible we may see some upside follow through on Friday however as we have seen any piece of bad news can lead to quick downside reversals. At this point I prefer to play it safe and not take a chance to the long side on Friday. Things are just too iffy.

 

[caymanbrac12]

This is what mom drives - it has the smg transmission bmw m3 06 - a pretty good lease deal.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Well another boring Saturday after taking care of the dogs and just trying to figure out heads or tails of this market. Sarah Shahi who plays a detective on the TV series "Life" helped out for a while today so that was nice seeing a pretty face. She has 4 chows of her own and is a fanatic about them. I had no idea she was a dallas cowboy cheerleader, calendar and all that crap. She is real cute Iranian background but that girl can kick your ass. She is working with some of the ultimate fighting group and she came in with a taped up nose. Definitely not someone to mess with even though she's maybe 5'3". It's real nice working with people from different backgrounds who don't cop an attitude with a little fame but actually care about certain causes. But back to business of the market.

We still seem to be trending down but after being up substantially the prior week the major averages gave up quite a bit this week. In the near term in my opinion the key support level to watch in the Dow is around 12100 . If the Dow breaks solidly below the 12100 area this will likely lead to a retest of the January 23rd low near 11630 . Meanwhile if the Dow can hold support near 12100 and attempts to rally I would look for initial resistance at its 20 Day EMA near 12465.

The S&P 500 seems to have a key support level in the near term around 1320. I'm guessing if the S&P 500 were to break solidly below the 1320 level then this would likely lead to a retest of the January 23rd low near 1270. Meanwhile if the S&P 500 can hold support near the 1320 area and attempts to rally look I would look for initial resistance at its 20 Day EMA near 1365.​

As far as the Nasdaq who knows. It crapped out at its 20 Day EMA last Friday and got within 60 points of its January 23rd low this week. I'm guressing if the Nasdaq attempts to move higher in the near term once again look for upside resistance to occur at its 20 Day EMA which is currently nearing the 2370 area. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq reverses back to the downside then the key support level to watch will be the January 23rd low at 2200.​

One thing I thought was interesting wasw the 2200 level in the Nasdaq is a key longer term support level that coincides with its 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the late 2002 low to the late 2007 high. Thus it will be important for the Nasdaq to hold support near the 2200 level in the weeks ahead. If the Nasdaq were to break solidly below the 2200 level then its next potential area of longer term support would be at its 50% Retracement Level near 1985 - not a pretty picture .​

My guess is all three major averages will eventually retest their January 23rd lows and how they act once they get there will tell us a lot about whether this current Bear Market (that's right bear market) will be of short duration or turn into a longer term event like we saw from 2000 through 2002. Only time will tell.​

Don't mean to sound so negative just seeing it for what I believe it is.​

craig​

 

[Reactive1]

I agree with you. In a less technical sense, I find it to just be common sense that there is little hope that a 15%+ drop like we saw is not going to simply allow a retrace to the previous highs with no questions asked. If equities were truly now just simply "on sale" the big boys and institutional investors would have moved the market much higher by now after such a drastic drop. I think a re-test is inevitable. For the sake of those long in the market I truly do hope I'm wrong. From a more selfish point of view, I hope I'm right.

 

[Birchtree]

Businesses, at least those outside of the banking and housing sectors, might take some of the sting out of a possible recession. Their finances are in far better shape now than they were in 2001, and credit so far is still widely available, I think. As they repaired their balance sheets in the wake of the 2001 recession, companies were also slower to hire than in past economic expansions. That may mean they won't be able to cut jobs as deeply. Exports which have been growing rapidly and account for more than twice as large a share of GDP as home construction does, will continue to post strong growth, at least greater than the 3.9% Q4 rate, easing the pain of the housing decline. The valuation of the market appears relatively inexpensive. The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 today, when looking ahead to 2008 earnings, is just 13.8. That could mean the index doesn't have much further to fall. If it trips so won't I.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Businesses, at least those outside of the banking and housing sectors, might take some of the sting out of a possible recession. Their finances are in far better shape now than they were in 2001, and credit so far is still widely available, I think. As they repaired their balance sheets in the wake of the 2001 recession, companies were also slower to hire than in past economic expansions. That may mean they won't be able to cut jobs as deeply. Exports which have been growing rapidly and account for more than twice as large a share of GDP as home construction does, will continue to post strong growth, at least greater than the 3.9% Q4 rate, easing the pain of the housing decline. The valuation of the market appears relatively inexpensive. The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 today, when looking ahead to 2008 earnings, is just 13.8. That could mean the index doesn't have much further to fall. If it trips so won't I.

Birchtree I see what you are saying but technicals aside consumer psychology can keep alot of money on the sidelines and cause people to act completely irrational and sell at any price to get out nor can it's importance be overstated so I'm trying to keep an eye on quite a few indicators and contraindicators but to reiterate this could break either way but myself personally I would rather miss a few opportunities than try to catch the proverbial falling knife. We will know here in short order what we are dealing with but even though I'm a little more on the cautious side for the moment doesn't mean I will be running with the herd (or sheep if you prefer ).

Also I can't recall the article in the WSJ but someone said that P/E are significantly higher than people think because earnings are falling faster than the prices but at this point it's all symantics as stated above. We will know soon enough. I sound like broken record but this always sticks with me:

Remember it is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Don't let the fear of missing control you.

Cut your losses early and often.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Just to clarify my position - it is more of a trader - so if I was just starting out or had 30 years to work I would be buying like crazy at these prices - it all depends on your time horizon but unfortunately some of us don't have the luxury of time and are more concerned with capital preservation with some appreciation so it can be a little trickier when retirement is in the picture. If I were 21yrs old starting out I would be CSI 30 30 40 and let it ride for a hell of a long time barring some catastrophic event.