caymanbrac12's account talk

[caymanbrac12]

just opening account. Let hope uncle Ben talks us up. I got to keep money coming in the take care of the dogs I take in.

Greg

 

[Birchtree]

Which one of the favorite dogs gets to ride in the Aston?

 

[caymanbrac12]

Which one of the favorite dogs gets to ride in the Aston?

All the dogs get a thrill ride after what they went thru. We still show chows at some of the local dog shows but I own property on Key Biscayne so I will slide by and give you a test drive and if you give me some good stock tips you can take it out and see what it can do. It has over 500 hp and 20" rims to keep it grounded so you would probably have some fun if that's your thing. It is one hell of a coupe. :nuts:

Greg

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for the offer but I don't think the vertebrae in my neck would hold up. No stock tips today - everything I own is heading lower.

 

[12%ayear]

just opening account. Let hope uncle Ben talks us up. I got to keep money coming in the take care of the dogs I take in.

Greg

Good Job with the dogs, your dad would be proud of you. Keep up the great work.

 

[caymanbrac12]

thanks 12. It should be interesting to see how some on this board play the fomc meeting at the end of the month if we don't have an emergency meeting which I believe is highly unlikely imho. I wouldn't be suprised if his obsession with inflation makes him put out only a 25% cut.

Just as a side note it seemed to me that Bernanke was sweating bullets yesterday and would have rather been anywhere but there and all he did was repeat history like he has seemed to do lately with Princenton University ivory tower mentality. It was like he was seeing things thru a glass "hoping" for things to get better. :blink: I have never seen a fed chairman exude so little confidence - just again imho.

He's got to have Jimmy Carter stagflation in the back of his mind and if the Dems win and raise taxes it could get real ugly.

 

[fedgolfer]

thanks 12. It should be interesting to see how some on this board play the fomc meeting at the end of the month if we don't have an emergency meeting which I believe is highly unlikely imho. I wouldn't be suprised if his obsession with inflation makes him put out only a 25% cut.

Just as a side note it seemed to me that Bernanke was sweating bullets yesterday and would have rather been anywhere but there and all he did was repeat history like he has seemed to do lately with Princenton University ivory tower mentality. It was like he was seeing things thru a glass "hoping" for things to get better. :blink: I have never seen a fed chairman exude so little confidence - just again imho.

Yeah, I was thinking the whole time he wants to say, "the markets are sh*t and I have to basically perjure myself to prevent the panic sell of the new millenium. I can't cut because I know it won't do any good in the short term -- only provide a bounce so those ding-dong TSP'ers holding the bag can get out." -- of which I am one, unfortunately!!!

 

[Warrenlm]

12%, are you bailing today?

 

[caymanbrac12]

I'm always watching the new hi's and low's for nyse etc. and it definitely makes me nervous to see the ratio. We are getting very few highs and a hell of alot more lows.

For me no jumping up and down with excitement but treading very carefully like in a mineshaft on some very weak floor boards. Just IMHO but at this point in time gaining in the market yesterday was complete luck since it all happened so quickly if you were in because I know I was crying the blues in the morning. Extreme volatility and the problem is what is under those rocks that we don't know about - so if I had been fully invested since jan01 one day up is only one day up or even 2 0r 3 days. To me doing alot of analysis last night (after my last visit with my pups - that's for you 12%) We have alot of crap still on the table to put it bluntly to deal with. For me CP is still the thing for me until I see different and if I miss a couple of good days big deal.

Greg

 

[Birchtree]

I remember the 1982 bull start up of August that year - the recession of that time didn't end until around December. And that was an excellent run because no one believed it was happening. Bob Farell kept all his brokers out most of the way up - the same may happen this time. I don't believe we are in or heading for any kind of recession - even so the bull will run long before the recession ends. Don't fight the Fed.

 

[caymanbrac12]

I remember the 1982 bull start up of August that year - the recession of that time didn't end until around December. And that was an excellent run because no one believed it was happening. Bob Farell kept all his brokers out most of the way up - the same may happen this time. I don't believe we are in or heading for any kind of recession - even so the bull will run long before the recession ends. Don't fight the Fed.

Birch not to make a big deal out it cause the money goes to a good cause - not just me -but I made a hell of alot of money ultrashort and shorting from 13900 down with a few hits along the way. I find I have to hold my nose when shorting because United States companies are getting hurt and good people with families to support get hurt. I would much rather make it on the up side so believe me I agree with you about the fed and I hope we get back to 14's the right way. Best of luck to all.

Greg

 

[caymanbrac12]

looking at some of numbers/charts to me it looks like after the market followed through on Thursday we could see a brief pullback develop (futures look good for tomorrow so far but tomorrow is a long way off and it may not develop until next week) in the near term leading up to the Federal Reserve Meeting next Tuesday. The first area of upside resistance for the S&P 500 is at 1361 and we are at 1352 so it may stall out near this level in the near term. If the S&P 500 can rise above 1361 then it will encounter even stronger upside resistance around 1390.

Keep in mind we are in what I believe to be a bear market (THERE I SAID IT ) and although we may have put in a short term bottom we may still see more downside action in the longer term (next several months) IMHO>​

Basically though If we don't fall off before the meeting we could get a good 5 to 10 oversold bounce (including and starting with what we have done so far). I'm looking at resistance for the Dow around 12600 it's 38.2% retracement level and upside resistance of 2470 for the nasdaq after the oversold bounce. After that I reiterate a downward trend probably in the cards IMHO over the next several months.​

Take it for what it's worth. One guys opinion.​

 

[caymanbrac12]

FOOD FOR THOGHT ON TRADING FROM THE KIRK REPORT


Remember it is easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Cut your losses early and often.

Pick your spots. Avoid overtrading.

Don't try to predict the markets. Look at the current situation the markets are in and base your decision on that situation.

I have learned the importance of waiting for the fat pitch to deploy lots of capital (and using stop losses) rather then trying to grind out lots of trades by swinging at "non fat" pitches.

The market is all about timing and managing your mistakes.

Learning how not to fight the tape is a harder lesson to learn than it seems.

Cut and run when the trade goes the wrong way.

Everything the media tells you has already been discounted by the market.

Double up on the way up - not down.

Watch the volume, trend, and entry point.

30% gut - 30% research - 40% perspiration

Trading less is better.

Use more than one confirmation indicator.

Sell at 25% increases and buy at 10% decreases in the NASDAQ

Don't let the fear of missing control you.

Take your losses quickly and your winners slowly.

No matter how much or little you make - share your profits with the needy.

 

[Tomncath]

looking at some of numbers/charts to me it looks like after the market followed through on Thursday we could see a brief pullback develop (futures look good for tomorrow so far but tomorrow is a long way off and it may not develop until next week) in the near term leading up to the Federal Reserve Meeting next Tuesday. The first area of upside resistance for the S&P 500 is at 1361 and we are at 1352 so it may stall out near this level in the near term. If the S&P 500 can rise above 1361 then it will encounter even stronger upside resistance around 1390.

Keep in mind we are in what I believe to be a bear market (THERE I SAID IT ) and although we may have put in a short term bottom we may still see more downside action in the longer term (next several months) IMHO>​

Basically though If we don't fall off before the meeting we could get a good 5 to 10 oversold bounce (including and starting with what we have done so far). I'm looking at resistance for the Dow around 12600 it's
38.2% retracement level and upside resistance of 2470 for the nasdaq after the oversold bounce. After that I reiterate a downward trend probably in the cards IMHO over the next several months.​

Take it for what it's worth. One guys opinion.​

ASIA's up and about to close. Europe's up across the board mid-morning.... It's tough to sit on the sidelines right now but I'm with you, the fundamental's really have not changed a bit!

 

[caymanbrac12]

Well I got the old dreaded letter over too many IFT's. I'm going to have withdrawals for God knows how long if I can't make my daily IFT. This really does suck. I will probably try a few things but it looks like the ol money is going to have to start rolling out to other options.

Greg

 

[caymanbrac12]

Hey when am I going to get a gold star. Doesn't anyone like me?


Greg

 

[caymanbrac12]

Paladin you are a scholar and a gentleman. I don't care what the others say. LOL

By the way very good concise info to help make decisions that we will no longer be making quite so often.


Greg

 

[kar_crazy]

so do you race or follow races, i love drag racing nothing like it to me

 

[caymanbrac12]

I had a few cars that Jason Heffner has worked on and he is going to see if he can pump up my current 07 zo6 maybe with a stronger bottom end or complete head and cam package,headers and with some goodies tossed in. We will see. Although that super vette for 100k sure looks unbeatable because of the warranty etc. but they always come out with something else so its just a money hole in my pocket but it sure is fun. LOL

 

[kar_crazy]

07 Z06 yes a sweet ride, I like the old muscle cars the faster they go they more you spend and break but i love the need for speed, post a picture of your vett if you can and G L trading