Caution 1084
Last night the markets revealed 3 days worth of price action in one day. You'd think I'd be happy with those profits, but happiness doesn't make you money if you don't get a good exit and I regret not pulling back to the G-Fund. Truth is I would have, but I had a last minute tasker and needed to deal with it.
Believe it or not, when I drew this ascending triangle over the weekend, I calculated an 1199 price target, but I didn't post that information because I felt it was too much price for the time-frame. So my price target was right, but my expectations were wrong. It wouldn't have mattered anyways as I didn't have a limit order in, and TSP is too slow for a 15 minute chart. Tomorrow I'll be looking for a test of the bottom trend-line, perhaps at 1084.
On the hourly July channel, we blew straight through 1084 and tagged the next Fib level just short of 1101. The biggest concern I have here is the rejection we got at the green trend-line. This line is the previous channel we had before the gap down, and as I said last week, I expected a crawl under rejection here. This chart leads me to believe we could test 1084 before the 1129 Fib.
On the daily May channel, I'd like to see the Fib 1091 hold. If it doesn't hold, then I see a test of 1084, 1069, 1060, and 1010.
To summarize, while there is still bullish potential out there, I feel we've gone too far too fast, and I'm very ready to go on the defensive. What goes up fast, tends to go down faster and further, so please be prepared and know where your stops are.
Take care and trade safe...Jason
