CASTAWAY'S account talk

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Castaway

Castaway

New member
Hi all. Decided to come back to TSP Talk after several years of absence. Finally retired, so I need something to do to keep me occupied :)

I was sitting in the I fund between Feb 08 until 5 FEB 2010 and in a matter of days, watched all my gains vanish before my eyes. Too much risk in the strengthening dollar against foreign currencies. I believe the dollar has awaken and will continue to strengthen over the coming months.

I jumped out of the I fund and in to the C (20%) and S (80%) in hopes of capitalizing on the slow economic recovery and hailing the close of January's economic indicators, or the "Blues News."

Look forward to some interesting market movements in the coming year and hopefully some nice gains.

GLTA! ;)
 
Thanks Poolman, no I am keeping the same name.

I have been analyzing the dollar trend since jumping out of the I Fund and now feel better about doing so. With continued Bear market action, the Dow closing under 10000 (1st time in 3 months), and increasing concerns over global market uncertainty, it appears that the EUR/USD will continue to lag.



For the Funds, I knew there would be further decline, but I did not expect such a disproportionate loss between the I/S/C Funds (the I Fund losses were only half of those felt by the S & I Funds). :blink: I only wish I had waited one additional day before effecting my transfer! Ok Castaway, move on now.

The Street just published a good commentary analysis on recent movements that is worth the read, especially if your a die-hard I Funder.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EURUSD-Will-Dollar-Gains-tsmf-4289245856.html?x=0&.v=1

As for returning to the I Fund: Too much risk to risk. In light of the new EFT rules, slingshot trading on currency movements is impossible and may adversely impact one's catching greater movements on other market fronts.


CASTAWAY
 
Welcome back CASTAWAY, Best of luck!!
Retirement is good so far for me, every day is Saturday!
Norman:D
 
Just wondering...I see you live in Germany and wondered if that was a retirement decision or something else. (No need to answer if I'm too nosey). The way the economy is going makes me wonder if there are better countries to live in when retired.
 
Blue

I here Costa Rica is a very attreactive retirement area. A couple could live like a king and queen for about $ 45,000/ yr. beautiful weather and good infrastructure. I'm lookin !!! 4 yrs and counting !!!
 
Bluehenge said:
Just wondering...I see you live in Germany and wondered if that was a retirement decision or something else. (No need to answer if I'm too nosey). The way the economy is going makes me wonder if there are better countries to live in when retired.
Click to expand...



Well, it is no mystery that with the horrible USD/EUR exchange rate, living in Europe is not easy, or as fun, as it was in the 1980's.


I live split-base, having married a German national with Euro family ties and our owning a small business back in the states (with my family ties). Its actually a major burden. :worried:


A friend of mine just retired and built his dream beach house in Thailand for around $60K. He says that he can live comfortably for $25K per year. I am not so akin to moving to Asia, however Cost Rica might be of interest.
 
I would think with the recent fall in the Euro, your American paycheck would stretch further?
 
JTH said:
I would think with the recent fall in the Euro, your American paycheck would stretch further?
Click to expand...

JTH, Your correct to a degree. As you know, the dollar has been so devalued, a noticeable recovery may be a distant dream. Similarly, the inflationary climb of the Euro post-conversion tarnished the dollars true worth.

I use to laugh when Uncle Sam would lower the COLA for military members because of the "dollars strength." Over time, the dollar's strength never really held firm and only continued to fall at a disproportionate rate.

Most Germans I have spoke with don't think the dollar will ever reach a 1:1 exchange rate or better again in the near future, and that it will only continue to fall. We know that the US gov't wants to maintain a suppressed dollar for growth in exports, etc., yet when nearly everything in the US is imported, what difference does it make?! There is probably no one more that would love to see a stronger dollar again that me.
 
Nice forward momentum going in to the week, although such strength concerns me.

An IFT to G Fund for Wed may help avoid a possible profit taking pull-back, but considering that I missed the cut-off time I am ready to ride out any storm Mother Market throws my way! :suspicious:

I am still not convinced to increase my risk in the I Fund. It rocketed on a weakening dollar in 2008, and can fall equally as fast on USD strength.

Strength of the Euro to dollar? I went out earlier today with my wife for aDonner (like a Gyro) and drink and the price was 14 EURO. There was atime, not too long ago, you could get a Donner and Beer for 5 DM, then4 Euro, now it costs 7 EURO. :(

I am hearing of many Germans beginning to convert their Euros to dollars foranticipated summer/fall vacations. Now if that isn't a hint to what Europeansentiment is on the dollars direction, what is?


"It all happened before, it will all happen again."
 
I am not familiar with the value of the EURO. What is 14 EURO equal to in US dollars?

Castaway said:
Nice forward momentum going in to the week, although such strength concerns me.

An IFT to G Fund for Wed may help avoid a possible profit taking pull-back, but considering that I missed the cut-off time I am ready to ride out any storm Mother Market throws my way! :suspicious:

I am still not convinced to increase my risk in the I Fund. It rocketed on a weakening dollar in 2008, and can fall equally as fast on USD strength.

Strength of the Euro to dollar? I went out earlier today with my wife for aDonner (like a Gyro) and drink and the price was 14 EURO. There was atime, not too long ago, you could get a Donner and Beer for 5 DM, then4 Euro, now it costs 7 EURO. :(

I am hearing of many Germans beginning to convert their Euros to dollars foranticipated summer/fall vacations. Now if that isn't a hint to what Europeansentiment is on the dollars direction, what is?


"It all happened before, it will all happen again."
Click to expand...
 
Oh, don't you love a market that runs wild!

I am very befuddled with the I Funds gains lately; Qual cosa non va! For now, I will let the allocation ride in the C and S Funds.

Even though earnings reports have been mixed, the rise in manufacturing index is a welcome sign of economic recovery. Lets just hope the Dollar keeps climbing and interest rates don't. :blink:
 
After considering the markets movement over the last 7 days, I decided now is the time to use my last IFT and move to the G Fund in the wake of more earnings and reports.

It appears to me, the markets are entering over-bought territory. I anticipate some consolidation in the coming weeks and expect March to be particular rough, however this market is most definitely dancing to the beat of a different drummer.


"It is far better a man gain wisdom than gold, and good judgment than silver!" Proverbs 16:16 :cool:
 
I hate to use an IFT just to go to the G fund.

Its nice to still be IN at the beginning of the month, if at all possible.
 
FAB1 said:
I hate to use an IFT just to go to the G fund.

Its nice to still be IN at the beginning of the month, if at all possible.
Click to expand...

I fully agree, however I don't foresee a short-term reentry until at least mid- March and since I no longer attempt to sling-shot a gain, its cool.

I am in a risk mitigation mode... any risk.
 
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