Carnac's Corner

[turbo23dog]

Carnac,

Look at my post count... you know i'm a noob so I'm gonna ask a noob question: can you clarify that last post a bit? Especially the part about the SP going south toward 700 which sounds pretty ugly. My context is that I'm ~8 years from retirement and 100% in L2020.

 

[The_Technician]

Carnac,

Look at my post count... you know i'm a noob so I'm gonna ask a noob question: can you clarify that last post a bit? Especially the part about the SP going south toward 700 which sounds pretty ugly. My context is that I'm ~8 years from retirement and 100% in L2020.

It's a feeling based on market dynamics....and past market performance plus the exceptional "Corporate Profit Bubble Bust" we are experiencing....there are consequences to all this ......and its our economy......it's atypical of a dying entity (US)....if you knew the country was going down the tubes, you would take all you could get when you left.

U know, I was wondering what could possibly happen before the end of the current administration...I think we are seeing it.....let the citizens invest in and go broke. It could be, the dollar is now worthless....buying Yuans may be a good idea after all.

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Crystal Balls are indicating this thing today is a momentary run up for now.....I think surprises are coming out way and they could be good for some return next month.

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Looking at the S&P for the last 50-60 years, I find it rather interesting that out economy which has declined has shown up on the charts…..we have no longer an expanding market value due to an imploding economy….but the exe’s get golden parachutes from the money they took in extreme profits from us the consumers.
I bet if Obama ever gets to vote on the economy he’ll vote……”PRESENT”……and that is what we just don’t need….because a hands off approach will be devastating….and besides, it’s a sign of being dumbfounded.
But what do I know, except I have said that the markets and economy were going down the tubes for several years now……and some said otherwise….that made them appear smarter at that time …. Until now.

I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P hits 700 this next year.....it would follow the flow of things wouldn't it.

Carnac

Sometimes intuition doesn't always lead to great things. Truly, I wish it would turn around, but "I don't think so" as some preppy young girl would say.

Crystal Balls say its a Spin down from here.

Carnac

 

[James48843]

Morning talking heads on TV said "Markets are in a panic".

I hate when they use the word "panic".


Then...This morning, Jim Cramer was on tv- said "If you have a time-line of less than 5 years, sell everything. "

Cramer says he thinks another 20% down before it levels out.

Thanks Cramer- very reassuring.

 

[Silverbird]

It's the talking heads who are in a panic, not the markets. Markets are being smart and rational - Cash is king at the moment; people aren't pulling out, they just aren't playing. Cramer sounds like Paulson talking about the bailout. His statements are just about as useful in creating self-fulfilling prophecies, and just about as timely. :notrust:

 

[Mike]

If they're spooked to that extent, the contrarian in me tends to think we're closing in on a buying opportunity (think the opposite of when the talking heads are saying things like "Dow 13,000!").

Whatever happens, I'm glad I'm 30 years from retirement.

 

[fabijo]

If they're spooked to that extent, the contrarian in me tends to think we're closing in on a buying opportunity (think the opposite of when the talking heads are saying things like "Dow 13,000!").

Whatever happens, I'm glad I'm 30 years from retirement.

Amen.

Buy, buy, buy!

 

[The_Technician]

Amen.

Buy, buy, buy!

U know u have to look at the econoomy like a steam engine...it only has so much heat at any one time..lately, ours really hasn't had what it had 20 years ago.....and then you take a quick fix like this buyout bill...its like stirring the coals in the boiler, but not adding any new heat.

Strange but true.

Carnac

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Morning talking heads on TV said "Markets are in a panic".

I hate when they use the word "panic".


Then...This morning, Jim Cramer was on tv- said "If you have a time-line of less than 5 years, sell everything. "

Cramer says he thinks another 20% down before it levels out.

Thanks Cramer- very reassuring.

he was saying sell 20% 2 weeks ago.

 

[The_Technician]

he was saying sell 20% 2 weeks ago.

There is a time to back off and it is now.....I think the mood for profit has changed substantially in the last week.....we're on the end of year slide.....

As I have said before, if Washington doesn't protect our economy we're in for a big Depression. This thing is highly unstable and is going to ying yang all over the place.

As far as the Crystal Balls are concerned they're are ahead for a fair cut, but I haven't really moved much in the past year.....and I mostly sat it out in the F fund for about 4 months while all that money was being made on 2 day swings.......I didn't have the time to worrry about it.

I will say this though, the CB's ain't suggesting to jump in for more than a day......and that could be risky itself.....so the best thing is to go get Trigger and ride over to Birchies to watch him cry it out.

See ya'll in the Monkey Bar.
Carnac

 

[Frixxxx]

There is a time to back off and it is now.....I think the mood for profit has changed substantially in the last week.....we're on the end of year slide.....

....so the best thing is to go get Trigger and ride over to Birchies to watch him cry it out.

See ya'll in the Monkey Bar.
Carnac

BA-Dump Bump...tissssh

 

[Birchtree]

The Technician,

You were bearish in 2006, 2007, and finally 2008 - glad you finally got it right. Yes I've paid my price for being long but all my assets are still intact which means no realized losses as of yet. I'm holding tight and actually doing some select buying searching for the bottom and as long as I'm close I'm happy. When was the last time you saw a $11.00 C fund price - this is an excellent opportunity for a new federal employee and the longer we stay at these levels the accumulators will benefit. Hope Trigger is well.

 

[The_Technician]

The Technician,

You were bearish in 2006, 2007, and finally 2008 - glad you finally got it right. Yes I've paid my price for being long but all my assets are still intact which means no realized losses as of yet. I'm holding tight and actually doing some select buying searching for the bottom and as long as I'm close I'm happy. When was the last time you saw a $11.00 C fund price - this is an excellent opportunity for a new federal employee and the longer we stay at these levels the accumulators will benefit. Hope Trigger is well.

I would say I saw what was coming 2 years ahead, because that is what happened.

Did you see the news....

Now the White Houuse is going to invest in banks (is this pure socialism or what)…..to provide liquidation to give loans to support the problem. Maybe the beneficiary of all this thought is, if we can get them to spend it, we continue making a large corporate profit, then take those US$’s and trade the currency for something more stable, because its prime time to get a lot of those US$’s!
U see it’s not the liquidity, it’s the stupidity of the loans in the first place (in the US taxpayers perspective), they are to citizens who can’t afford it in the first place…..it will be a debt paid forever by their descendents.
The key to all this is to limit the govt on how much it can obligate and tax its citizens….it’s just gone rampant. Let’s see, if I fill out my tax form at eoy and I owe/or already paided more than 15% based on the figures and methods provided, I owe no more than 15%! So there, I don’t care what kind of tax proposals you have, I don’ t pay more than 15% in income/sales tax, in any tax!
Something tells me it won’t get passed.

Carnac

 

[Silverbird]

Where's the regulation to go with this money? No one would trust these foos with an investment with no strings attached.

Oh, except regulations will destroy the economy, and regulations are evil? And it's up to the Government to keep the economy running?

If you believe this, I have some tranches to sell you.

 

[The_Technician]

Where's the regulation to go with this money? No one would trust these foos with an investment with no strings attached.

Oh, except regulations will destroy the economy, and regulations are evil? And it's up to the Government to keep the economy running?

If you believe this, I have some tranches to sell you.

U know in bad times you have to do with less....well

Keep yer shorts clean, you may need them!

 

[The_Technician]

Sometimes intuition doesn't always lead to great things. Truly, I wish it would turn around, but "I don't think so" as some preppy young girl would say.

Crystal Balls say its a Spin down from here.

Carnac

Some Spin down....like a WWII fighter outta luck!

Where's the crash site!

Will there be a survivor? Maybe we will get through this.

Carnac

 

[nnuut]

Hey Tech!!
CRASH down to SPX 800, I think that is the next support, from 2002 -2003, but during this thing chart analysis isn't working it's all in the news!!
We will just have to wait and SEEEEEeeeee!

 

[The_Technician]

Hey Tech!!
CRASH down to SPX 800, I think that is the next support, from 2002 -2003, but during this thing chart analysis isn't working it's all in the news!!
We will just have to wait and SEEEEEeeeee!View attachment 4853

Funny thing about today....we break 5-1/2 year lows, but where is the cost of energy compared to then......???? 2 to 3 times as much, depends on what day you call it! Guess if you're looking for the smoking gun.......you found it.

I suppose the end of the month thingy is out of probability by now.....

But Hey....time to go get Trigger up for another ride.....seems all the bulls been corralled for a time now...

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Crystal Balls are indicating this thing today is a momentary run up for now.....I think surprises are coming out way and they could be good for some return next month.

Carnac

Reflections of a post late last month....this month is NNutts!!! Right Norman!

Hey, nothing like getting great rewards for a few days of work.....you just got to know when to "fold'em"!

I betcha Birchy you are breathing a sigh of relief! But don't get too use to it.....in about and around end of year you will see another recantment coming your way...

Capitulation-a process of correction that may be rather drastic at times.


Carnac