Carnac's Corner

[Mike]

Except for the fact that the Fed's decisions are counterbalanced by decisions of other monetary policy makers around the world.

Our interest rate is much higher than Europe's, and theirs is much higher than Japan's. The point I am making is that as the dominant economy / leading consumer, we are in the unique position to potentially cause catastrophic harm to a large number of countries through stupid policy decisions.

Let's say the Fed manages to contain inflation in the next few months in the US - but the cost of that containment is a global recession where millions end up unemployed and in many countries, they end up succumbing to disease/famine because their economic slowdown led to massive job loss. Does the decision to aggressively contain inflation beneath an arbitrarily determined ceiling seem like such a good one in that scenario?

I'm not saying we should embrace a policy of growth at any cost here - but for the Fed to act like it's such a big and horrible problem to have annual inflation rates at 3-4% is borderline ridiculous / insane. That's a far cry from hyperinflation - or even the nasty inflation of the late 70s/early 80s.

 

[The_Technician]

Except for the fact that the Fed's decisions are counterbalanced by decisions of other monetary policy makers around the world.

Our interest rate is much higher than Europe's, and theirs is much higher than Japan's. The point I am making is that as the dominant economy / leading consumer, we are in the unique position to potentially cause catastrophic harm to a large number of countries through stupid policy decisions.

Let's say the Fed manages to contain inflation in the next few months in the US - but the cost of that containment is a global recession where millions end up unemployed and in many countries, they end up succumbing to disease/famine because their economic slowdown led to massive job loss. Does the decision to aggressively contain inflation beneath an arbitrarily determined ceiling seem like such a good one in that scenario?

I'm not saying we should embrace a policy of growth at any cost here - but for the Fed to act like it's such a big and horrible problem to have annual inflation rates at 3-4% is borderline ridiculous / insane. That's a far cry from hyperinflation - or even the nasty inflation of the late 70s/early 80s.

I think the populace in the third world have enjoyed a rather increase in quality of life albeit minor over the last few years...I really don't believe they will suffer much for an expansion correction here in the US....throttling the global will not shut down their economys...but moderate them...of course we could suffer just as bad here at home if we don't..........I think your concerns for the third world is great, but there is a lot of concern of those who control things around here and its their choice on how they live....it is survival of the fittest on the economic scale.....maybe the third world will start to figure out how great economics is accomplished and will support it with the individual freedoms it requires to succeed.....

There are other angles on interest rates at play here.....there is no stopping the train on this point....

 

[The_Technician]

I still hold true to the index values that I stated above..sorta thought today could happen and was expecting it earlier before the FOMC.....but the closer we get the closer we could drop.......we're close....

Looks like if today will hold up....I'm gonna have to give the new Crystal Ball another 100% accuracy rating.....end of two weeks, almost hit the numbers on the three indexes....U gotta love it...:cheesy:

If ya minded the Crystal Ball since early May, you would have been up 5.6, 9.2, 6.8 % in the CSI funds since then.....without losing in the down strokes.....missed the last of the quarter though....couldn't be around for that good'un....missed out on the 3% or so climb there.......I'm going to have to keep around for those days......its costing me returns....but this time I couldn't help it....

I would be looking for 1200 or less on the S&P coming up..:blink: ...guess the other indexes will be down also.....I will have to look see what the ball sezzzz.....I will post those later on....

The Crystal Ball rules.....

Carnac the Magnificient

 

[Wheels]

If ya minded the Crystal Ball since early May, you would have been up 5.6, 9.2, 6.8 % in the CSI funds since then.....

And yet your returns before you stopped posting your moves were a little below 0%.

Dave
<><

 

[The_Technician]

And yet your returns before you stopped posting your moves were a little below 0%.

Dave
<><

Yeap....well I had to get the Crystal Ball tuned up......it took a while....as they say,"patience is a virtue....."...I was very patient

 

[The_Technician]

Crystal Ball sezzzz.....be looking for 1200 or below on the S&P, 510 to 520 on the Wilshire, and mid 50's on the EAFE........more than likely within the end of the month....

Batter up!!!

 

[Fivetears]

Boy, I sure hope the Magnificent Carnac's mid 50 prediction for the EAFE doesn't pan out immediately. I see at least a good two week run.

 

[The_Technician]

Boy, I sure hope the Magnificent Carnac's mid 50 prediction for the EAFE doesn't pan out immediately. I see at least a good two week run.

Wish I could say it would go up......but I can't....not with hardly any confidence.....but no one really knows.... riiight....things could change, but as of today.......well, wish ya alot of luck.....

I'm just hoping I can keep this Crystal Ball predicting thing going on and on and on....been kinda nice ya know...

 

[Fivetears]

Thanks

Wish I could say it would go up......but I can't....not with hardly any confidence.....but no one really knows.... riiight....things could change, but as of today.......well, wish ya alot of luck.....

 

[The_Technician]

Thanks

I will give you less than 15% chance just off the cuff odds....

 

[Fivetears]

Well Carnac... I guess I got spooked out of a run through the I pit. Guess we'll see what this day brings. There's still some beer in the cooler.

 

[The_Technician]

Well Carnac... I guess I got spooked out of a run through the I pit. Guess we'll see what this day brings. There's still some beer in the cooler.

Its a bounce back day....I don't see any real recovery going on here....the fund is at a such high value its got little room to go up....yesterday was not exactly the "ideal" time to get in...

 

[Fivetears]

Good call, Carnac.
Your 15% odds favoring a small profit proved to be good enough for me to get paid. On the other hand, that was a stupid move on my part. :embarrest: Give me that next market drop, and you'll need a team of wild horses to keep me out of the pit.

Its a bounce back day....I don't see any real recovery going on here....the fund is at a such high value its got little room to go up....yesterday was not exactly the "ideal" time to get in...

 

[The_Technician]

I would be prepared for the market to take itself down some from these extended highs....we should be correcting towards values I have mentioned recently in the past week or so...so be protective...

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

I see some board members are having difficulty keeping up with the posts of recommendations of the Crystal Ball so I thought that a review of those moves would be appropriate. "Held" on the table means I held my cash and thus no losses or gains. "Fund Action" is the loss or gains of the individual funds between recommendations....

View attachment 1006

You will notice that the end of the month of June gains was not predicted. This was due to the fact that I was unavailable at the time (I posted that fact) and could not make any judgement of the markets direction at the time. Unfortunately it resulted in a failure to gain the 3% or so at the eom....

Carnac

 

[Fivetears]

Your forum is a welcome break from grappling with all of the graphs, charts and piles of news articles. Carnac the Magnificent... you have nothing to prove. This is the only place I know to turn, when my piles of scratch and note paper take flight.
Just grab two ice cold beers... and look for CARNAC THE MAGNIFICIENT!

 

[TiCKed]

I'm going to reluctantly question your own scorecard.

Recommend everyone go back and read what he REALLY wrote on 6/15 and tell me if you REALLY read that as a "Get Out" prediction. I see two separate strong buy recommendations, followed by a very weak waffling about the following day.

Now look at 6/19, (a supposed "Get In" prediction). Only one post with a prediction that day, which said, "Think today could be an entry point....tomorrow more likely....Its finicky to say the least...."

Would you act based on that "recommendation"?

Finally, look at 6/23: One post only, reading in it's entirety: "Two days later and she's cooking up a storm.... ...not too sure about going further on.....Monday could be a bit blue......not too sure about Wed either....it could be real blue....but we could have another one of them days like today after all that by eom......."

Is that a prediction? Does it sound like "Get out" to you? Seems he covered all the bases to me. (Reality "Today - 6/23" was flat, and both Monday (6/26) and Wednesday (6/28) were UP days).


Techy: The only reason I'm bringing this up is your supposed concern for the readers of this board when it comes to Birch's posts. You claim he is leading them astray, and doing real damage.

Your posts are every bit as dangerous, and probably more so since you are actively trying to recruit followers!

I'm getting fed up with this place.....

 

[SkyPilot]

TiCked, you make excellent points.

This could be solved by "Carnac" using a clear "Buy" or "Sell" recommendation, assuming that one wanted to be clearly understood, and held accountable. But then again, if that were the case, one could post TSP allocations, huh?

 

[Wheels]

TiCked, you make excellent points.

This could be solved by "Carnac" using a clear "Buy" or "Sell" recommendation, assuming that one wanted to be clearly understood, and held accountable. But then again, if that were the case, one could post TSP allocations, huh?

He tried that Sky. It didn't work. He had lousy returns and there was no way to say that he said something else after the fact.

Dave
<><

 

[mlk_man]

Easy guys. Apparentlly he has clout...........