Carnac's Corner

[The_Technician]

She's looking strong so far.....maybe we will have that good day or two or three now...

 

[The_Technician]

Hmmmm....if this prediction accuracy of the new "Crystal Ball" keeps up, I think I'm going to have to keep a record ....:nuts:

 

[The_Technician]

She's looking strong so far.....maybe we will have that good day or two or three now...

Two days later and she's cooking up a storm....:notrust: ...not too sure about going further on.....Monday could be a bit blue......not too sure about Wed either....it could be real blue....but we could have another one of them days like today after all that by eom.......

The new crystal ball is still batting a 100.....:nuts:

 

[The_Technician]

I ....it seems that ya got 2 weeks for this to happen.....

We be coming up on that two weeks at or around the eom-fom........so keep your senses about ya...:blink: ...I'll post later on an outlook after this early mornings trading....

BTW....she's looking like a sick dog at the moment.....you never know when they will bite back at ya.....

 

[The_Technician]

New home sales were again great... .....only thing is, that means the Fed isn't going to back off on their next FOMC meeting here in two days....its not going to sit well with the market normally.....(seeing we are currently in an interest rate inversion and its not going to back off again....)

I starting to believe that due to these perspectives, the market isn't going to get to those target prices I was looking for two weeks or so ago....if it does, its frail in strength...:worried: (Unless something changes.... which I'm not willing to bet on....)

The market looks weak this morning, the adv/dec ratio is falling at this hour and it would bode well to protect you're assets in this high risk situation.....:notrust:

 

[Fivetears]

I'm reading there's a bit of a rift in the FED as well, concerning both the monetary policy and future interest rates. What does the great Carnac see regarding this?

 

[The_Technician]

I'm reading there's a bit of a rift in the FED as well, concerning both the monetary policy and future interest rates. What does the great Carnac see regarding this?

Hey there FT......I think that the Fed has no choice to raise rates....if not we tend to an inflationary trend....the latter side supports business right at the moment but it crashes in the future, the other side tempers present business but we live to see another day.....raising rates to temper inflation is an obvious move.

Logic tells one that to temper inflationary trends to averaged growth trends....smooth out the trend and you smooth out the economy for constant growth.

Personally, I really believe they should have raised rates harsher early on to pinch ole inflation in the derear....

 

[Fivetears]

Yes Sir, I've read some information concerning this a couple times over the course of this FYCL. I've even read somewhere in an article today about the rationale for pushing a .5% increase on the 28th, and following with some language about putting the brakes on any further raises for a while. Does the Great Carnac think the 1/2% now would do us all any good?

Personally, I really believe they should have raised rates harsher early on to pinch ole inflation in the derear....

 

[The_Technician]

Yes Sir, I've read some information concerning this a couple times over the course of this FYCL. I've even read somewhere in an article today about the rationale for pushing a .5% increase on the 28th, and following with some language about putting the brakes on any further raises for a while. Does the Great Carnac think the 1/2% now would do us all any good?

I firmly believe that applying harder rate increases at the onset of increases is the way to go.....anything firm right now would only get a drastic response from an already fragile situation.....so the smaller rates should be used......

 

[Fivetears]

We'll all keep our eyes on the eastern horizon. 1 if by land; 2 if by sea. The raises are coming.

 

[The_Technician]

We'll all keep our eyes on the eastern horizon. 1 if by land; 2 if by sea. The raises are coming.

Suppose todays action is 1 there FT......

Sorry, I been unable to get to the web of the last few days....today was a whopper but tomorrow can again be another whopper the other way.....so watch it.......I can on estimate the market action seeing I haven't updated my data to take a looksee......but maybe this Monday....

Good time to be safe.....or be sure why you're in......

 

[The_Technician]

I took another look at this prediction from last week, thinking about the upper end of the S&P if this comes about.....look for the range to top out just in the 1280's if we go that'away.....

Dollar looked weak yesterday...looking for it to weaking some more before eom.....good for I fund and the EFA could get to 66 or so.....

Wilshire should mimic the other two ....if nothing else becomes bad news for the 4500......could get to 580....

FOMC coming at the end of month..Wed the 28th ..so things are going to change....

I may havt'a go get the saddle on ole Trigger if I get hard headed bulls coming our way by that time.....they gotta learn to turn before the cliff....

I still hold true to the index values that I stated above..sorta thought today could happen and was expecting it earlier before the FOMC.....but the closer we get the closer we could drop.......we're close....

 

[mlk_man]

Nnuut, you started this arrogance. Thanks............

 

[nnuut]

What gew talkin' bout Lewis?

 

[mlk_man]

I think I will start this thread. It will be easier to keep track of it all.....in any case Welcome to "Carnac the Magnificient's" corner (thanks Norman-aka Nnuut). May we all prosper!!!

It's Willis, not Lewis.........:blink:

 

[nnuut]

Mike, I knew you would catch that! I know nothing, I did nothing, I started nothing, i'm only joking around , cause i'm NNUUTS. :ban:

 

[The_Technician]

quoted Wilshire 580 today.....topped at 570 or so..
EAFE 66 today .....topped at about 65.4
S&P 1280 today ....topped at 1276

as I said yesterday....its real close....next week a new quarter begins.....

 

[The_Technician]

I wanted to add an additional est to the S and I fund upper range....8 and 11% is possible, the 4% was the conservative estimate....it seems that ya got 2 weeks for this to happen.....

Your 2 weeks is almost up.....check your bags at the door.....we should break 1219 in the S&P if we break down here in the next week or so.....

Gotta go get that Trigger and round up them bulls that got out.....som of em have be getting a bit noisy and wakeing the neighbors a few sections away.....

Have a good holiday......

 

[Mike]

A few observations/questions:

Do we even need the Fed anymore? The economy is clearly global these days. By formulating policy to contain inflation here, the Fed could easily screw things up for the rest of the world, particularly the emerging markets, India, and China. Who do you think gets hurt the most if we slip into a recession due to overly aggressive / "over-shooting" Fed policy? Yes, we'll feel some pain, but it won't compare to the pain felt in those nations who rely heavily on the US to buy their products. Much has been said of China's amazing expansion, but very little has been said about the fact that they NEED to grow at that rate, just like India does. Both countries have huge populations entering the workforce, and in order to sustain that / provide sufficient jobs, their economies must grow at nearly a 10% annual rate just to keep up. If they fail to do that / go into recession, massive social upheaval is a real possibility.

So, which is worse: inflation running 5-6% and a bit above the Fed's desired target, or a recession that leads to unpredictable political upheavals around the world? I think inflation + big growth is the more benign outcome of the two.

As for the upcoming period for the market, I think retesting the lows is certainly possible, particularly if any / all of the following happen:
1) Iran turns down the US/European offer - gets referred to the security council for sanctions, now with Russian and Chinese support. Oil could be used as a weapon in this case.
2) North Korea continues its sabre rattling (they just launched a few missiles yesterday).
3) US payroll report on Friday misses expectations by a wide margin in either direction (too high = inflation fears / Fed continues increases, too low = recession is coming).

Given all this turmoil, I say gold continues its rally. A lot of upside exists for oil if Iran turns down the offer. We're also in hurricane season again.

 

[The_Technician]

A few observations/questions:

Do we even need the Fed anymore? The economy is clearly global these days. By formulating policy to contain inflation here, the Fed could easily screw things up for the rest of the world, particularly the emerging markets, India, and China. Who do you think gets hurt the most if we slip into a recession due to overly aggressive / "over-shooting" Fed policy? Yes, we'll feel some pain, but it won't compare to the pain felt in those nations who rely heavily on the US to buy their products. Much has been said of China's amazing expansion, but very little has been said about the fact that they NEED to grow at that rate, just like India does. Both countries have huge populations entering the workforce, and in order to sustain that / provide sufficient jobs, their economies must grow at nearly a 10% annual rate just to keep up. If they fail to do that / go into recession, massive social upheaval is a real possibility.

So, which is worse: inflation running 5-6% and a bit above the Fed's desired target, or a recession that leads to unpredictable political upheavals around the world? I think inflation + big growth is the more benign outcome of the two.

As for the upcoming period for the market, I think retesting the lows is certainly possible, particularly if any / all of the following happen:
1) Iran turns down the US/European offer - gets referred to the security council for sanctions, now with Russian and Chinese support. Oil could be used as a weapon in this case.
2) North Korea continues its sabre rattling (they just launched a few missiles yesterday).
3) US payroll report on Friday misses expectations by a wide margin in either direction (too high = inflation fears / Fed continues increases, too low = recession is coming).

Given all this turmoil, I say gold continues its rally. A lot of upside exists for oil if Iran turns down the offer. We're also in hurricane season again.

I think its important to look at the whole rather than the few....on the whole expansion is evident, rate of expansion is dependent on what the system can handle. Who is controlling this is the center point, who is affected the most is related on who is controlling the global economy.....here in the US, its you and your neighbor who is affected from a standard of living they are use to. China is upgrading theirs....and India and so forth....

So the rate of expansion will determine the stability of the system, and in all systems, that feedback has to be watched and modulated carefully to keep the system output steady....-control theory on systems.....its all predictable with mathmatics.....and that is where a leading role comes into play....the FED at the moment is that role player even if it has some flaws......