I was watching the news earlier this evening and of course the newscaster covered the continued sell-off of the markets today. He said the market has now sold off enough to wipe out the gains over the last 11 years.
I've only been in TSP for 6.5 years and both the C and S fund share price this evening are well below the price where I began buying, which was right at $10 a share. The I fund has about $1.50 to go yet to the break even point of where I began buying into it.
Amazing.
There seems to be very few pro's out there who expected this kind of carnage. At least not as quickly as it's unfolded. Stratfor stated last month that our recovery would probably begin after the 4th quarter this year. That remains to be seen, but I can't say I'm confident of that happening. I won't say it won't happen either.
With the kind of selling we've had the last 6 weeks or so and knowing we only have another 6 weeks to the end of the quarter, that may very well be the case. I mean 6 more weeks of this and we should be close to zero. I guess from that perspective we really could begin to recover.
Of course I'm trying to inject a little humor here as I don't really expect the markets to play out that way, but it may feel like it when all is said and done.
Sy Harding sent out a hotline update this afternoon and said that after the October lows were taken out yesterday, panic selling would probably ensue. So far he seems to be correct in that assumption. He also expects it to be quick and result in a final capitulation of the last buy and holder. And today's sell-off was on relatively high volume too, so it may qualify. He further states that the market was already extremely oversold before today, which would lead one to expect a spike back up just as fast and perhaps launch the bear market rally some of us have been looking for. That's the expectation anyway.
Even the trader I follow, Mark Young, who's been very successful most of the time said by all rights we should have rallied yesterday given the indicators he follows.
I have decided to throw in the towel, but not by getting out of the market. I'm staying put at this point, until we get a substantial rally to sell in to. I've done the best I could given our trading restrictions and have at least stayed ahead of the S&P by about 20% for the year. That's a successful year in my book. Especially given that I am fighting a once-in-a-lifetime event with both hands tied behind my back. I have to give myself a little credit for the limited success I've had under these conditions.
So don't be too hard on yourself if you're in same boat I'm in. The rules don't favor us and the market can be unforgiving. If you've done pretty well so far this year, congratulations. You've potentially got a great buying opportunity unfolding. Of course the question still remains. When does one get back in?
The battle never ends.
I've only been in TSP for 6.5 years and both the C and S fund share price this evening are well below the price where I began buying, which was right at $10 a share. The I fund has about $1.50 to go yet to the break even point of where I began buying into it.
Amazing.
There seems to be very few pro's out there who expected this kind of carnage. At least not as quickly as it's unfolded. Stratfor stated last month that our recovery would probably begin after the 4th quarter this year. That remains to be seen, but I can't say I'm confident of that happening. I won't say it won't happen either.
With the kind of selling we've had the last 6 weeks or so and knowing we only have another 6 weeks to the end of the quarter, that may very well be the case. I mean 6 more weeks of this and we should be close to zero. I guess from that perspective we really could begin to recover.
Of course I'm trying to inject a little humor here as I don't really expect the markets to play out that way, but it may feel like it when all is said and done.
Sy Harding sent out a hotline update this afternoon and said that after the October lows were taken out yesterday, panic selling would probably ensue. So far he seems to be correct in that assumption. He also expects it to be quick and result in a final capitulation of the last buy and holder. And today's sell-off was on relatively high volume too, so it may qualify. He further states that the market was already extremely oversold before today, which would lead one to expect a spike back up just as fast and perhaps launch the bear market rally some of us have been looking for. That's the expectation anyway.
Even the trader I follow, Mark Young, who's been very successful most of the time said by all rights we should have rallied yesterday given the indicators he follows.
I have decided to throw in the towel, but not by getting out of the market. I'm staying put at this point, until we get a substantial rally to sell in to. I've done the best I could given our trading restrictions and have at least stayed ahead of the S&P by about 20% for the year. That's a successful year in my book. Especially given that I am fighting a once-in-a-lifetime event with both hands tied behind my back. I have to give myself a little credit for the limited success I've had under these conditions.
So don't be too hard on yourself if you're in same boat I'm in. The rules don't favor us and the market can be unforgiving. If you've done pretty well so far this year, congratulations. You've potentially got a great buying opportunity unfolding. Of course the question still remains. When does one get back in?
The battle never ends.
