07/15/13
Stocks were mixed on Friday with the Dow picking up a few points, the S&P and small caps adding modest gains, and the I-fund taking a 0.7% loss.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 made a new closing high last week and is flirting with the intraday high made in late May. The angle of incline of the current rally is very similar to the one during the April / May rally. That rally lasted over 4-weeks while the current rally is 3-weeks old.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Longer-term chart tells the same story...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has now been up for a remarkable 13 consecutive days. There is an open gap that will likely be filled in the not so distant future, but for now, we're seeing new highs after Thursday's breakout. The Nasdaq 100 is a market leader full of big cap tech stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is still below recent highs, and the only negative here, besides being overbought, is the flat top that it needs to get past. Flat tops tend to precede pullbacks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are all stretched to the overbought side, and while overbought markets can stay overbought for long periods of time, the last readings this high did precede the 5% pullback in May / June.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is the 10th trading day in July and you can see the early July positive bias is behind us now. This 60+ year trend of a negative mid-July is likely due to a "sell the news" reaction to earnings season. This year earnings expectations aren't very high so we may not get any big disappointments, but the recent rally certainly sets up a possible sell the news reaction anyway.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The 7-10 Year Treasury ETF has now filled the open gap left open after the recent jobs report. With the 20-day EMA just overhead, this will be an interesting test for bonds. The odds would favor lower bond prices here, and a lower F-fund, but a move above this resistance would obviously change that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Stocks are due for a rest and there are signs that we are heading into a little tougher stretch here, but the bulls, momentum, and the Fed are all on the market's side right now and it may take some kind of negative catalyst to stop this freight train.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Administrative Note: We have started a new premium service. Don't worry, it's free for a while. Some of you may know our forum member Coolhand, who has been posting and writing blogs in the forum for us for nearly 9 years. He has started a weekly report in the premium service area, which is and available to everyone who has created a premium service login. You will have to login to view the reports.
At some point in the future, and we are targeting January 2014 as the start date, "Coolhand's Market Analysis" will become a full service, daily subscription based premium service. If you don't have a login to the premium area yet, here is how to create one: Create Account. If you need help, please read FAQ #1... How do I sign up? or watch this quick instructional video. If you have an account, just login - www.tsptalk.com/members.
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
