C-fund

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The outsized influence of the tech sector in 2000 greatly distorted the capitalization weighted indices. There are 10 sectors in the S&P 500 Index: technology, financials, healthcare, utilities, industrials, energy, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and materials and telecom. If we excluded the tech sector, the S&P 500 would be 16% above its level reached in 2000. Seven of the 10 other sectors (excluding tech, telecom and consumer discretionary) are significantly higher than their 2000 levels. Even within the S&P 500, more than two-thirds of stocks are above the price they reached in 2000, but the big cap tech stocks had so much weight then that their collapse forced the whole index lower now. Will history repeat to some degree? Tech may be the next surprise.
 
Birchtree said:
The outsized influence of the tech sector in 2000 greatly distorted the capitalization weighted indices. There are 10 sectors in the S&P 500 Index: technology, financials, healthcare, utilities, industrials, energy, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and materials and telecom. If we excluded the tech sector, the S&P 500 would be 16% above its level reached in 2000. Seven of the 10 other sectors (excluding tech, telecom and consumer discretionary) are significantly higher than their 2000 levels. Even within the S&P 500, more than two-thirds of stocks are above the price they reached in 2000, but the big cap tech stocks had so much weight then that their collapse forced the whole index lower now. Will history repeat to some degree? Tech may be the next surprise.
Click to expand...

I was just reading insider trading showing the purchases and sales of insiders at selected companies. There's some BIG selling going on with these CEO's taking profits, and backing out of the market.
 
On CNBC today it was stated that historically the S&P 500 gains 23% in the year after a midterm election. Let's see; 1390 x .23 = 319 which provides a value of 1709. That's my target. Does that mean I have to get out next year or can I revise my target higher. We'll wait and see.
 
if the cfund closes where it is now it will close on the support line that can be traced all the way back to late July. if the chart pattern holds, today will prove a good buying op. Other days that sit on this support level are 8/14, 9/8, 9/22 and 11/3. If this doesn't hold, lookout below. S fund will also sit at support level... anyone gonna buy?
 
Im holding out on this one. The trend should show which direction its moving shortly though... I agree though, itll either be breakout or breakdown.
 
On the downside, I'll call this:

Light resistance at 1360

Harder resistance at 1308

Floor underneath at 1270.

All three are possible in the next week.
 
If C fund closes up ~.50% at approx $15.65 it will be at the very top of the resistance line that extends back to 10/26 and 11/22 (those two dates being perfect times to sell). If the VIX gets close to 10, this short upward wave won't have much more push. Following the trends and charts until they break down... good luck to all, happy holidays!!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart3:symbol=^vix;range=3m;indicator=sma(820)+bollinger+psar+wpr(15);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined
 
We are currently at 1414.56 and only 12 points away from a new all-time high in the DJIA. That should easily be worth 10 points in the SPX. It's just like walking a howitzer - sometimes big guns do the best. If technology were to start attracting some attention the SPX could be at new all-time highs before June 30 '07. But that's a big if.
 
I almost bought some C yesterday. Might do it today. I had 100% C for the first 15 years of my career. Hope yur right about the growth.
 
Mailmanusa,

Admire your courage to divulge that strategy in this environment. The sign on the door says TSPtalk and not TSPtimingtalk. Are you sorry for that strategy or were you rewarded where DCA time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market?

Dennis - permabull#1
 
Birch, I need to correct myself and say that my first 10 years was all C. The compound return for that time frame is about 9%. Yes it was rewarding to earn that. I am also having fun trading and am doing very well for the first 6 weeks of tracking anyway. Timewise, my trading record is too short thusfar to compare to a 10 yr spread. I believe that protecting losses is as important as posting gains. The DCA game supports the trading game. With the idea that the market will always go up with time supports traders idea. I think it makes traders less skittish about moving around. I find trading exciting and so far it has been significantly rewarding. I am glad you support DCA.
 
Mutual funds inflow tend to be seasonally strong during the first quarter. To me it's liquidity that will be the main driver of new highs in 2007. The bad boy C fund will finally receive some accolades - just watch. I wish I owned more shares.
 
The SP500 has been bouncing around in a channel between 1408 and 1425 It closed at 1430.73 breaking through that channel. I'm a little gun shy for the action Tuesday.
 
Back on thread #52 I mentioned that if technology were to start attracting some attention the SPX could be at new all-time highs before June 30, '07. Well, this week it was all Nasdaq. The Composite Index rose 2.8% to 2502.82, while the SPX finished the week up 1.5% at 1430.73. It looks like tech will lead for awhile and pull SPX along with it. Suits me fine.
 
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