C-fund

[mayday]

No sell sign yet.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?spx

 

[Frixxxx]

Since small caps usually lead the way. Isn't time for the CFund to start moving upward?

I think this is the biggest indicator that something is not 100% in this bull run.....

I know I shouldn't say that.

Even though I like the returns this year already, I think small caps is the smart money right now.....

 

[merlin]

Since small caps usually lead the way. Isn't time for the CFund to start moving upward?

 

[Boghie]

James,

President Obama picked the low in the market, recommended we dumb money get back in, and carefully monitored the 67% boom through the leavers of Federal power.

The DOW is now at 10,428
Your 2010 projection is 9,210
You spent 100 days in the G Fund

So, you are projecting that 'The One' will guide the market down 12%. That implies the S&P will be 981. Thus, the C Fund will end the year around $11.63. Maybe it will be the best for us.

I, for one, am far more positive - and have been more positive - regarding our Fearless Leaders guiding hand. I am predicting that President Obama will shepherd us to an S&P 500 of 1148 by the end of the calendar year. That implies a C Fund price quote of $13.61.

I stand ready to hazzah the leader of the realm :laugh:

 

[Show-me]

I will add that 10 of the last 15 midterm years followed the "month" of January.

Also, 2009 has the honor of being the worse S&P 500 January on record.

 

[Show-me]

Stock Traders Alminac sez the first five day rule is almost a contrary indicator in a midterm election year. In 15 midterm years only 7 followed the indicator correctly.

The last 36 up first five days were followed by full year gains 31 times.

 

[James48843]

This is where we start the year-2010.

With the S&P 500 at 1115.10.

Good luck.

View attachment 7827
​

 

[JTH]

but, still fun.

All valid points and I whole heartily agree with you. I can't look too far into the future but based on Japan and the Dollar I can easily see the I-fund under-performing in the 1st quarter.

The last quarter showed the Yen taking a nose dive and the dollar gaining considerable ground.
View attachment 7824

Also, while the S&P 500 has retraced 50% off the March bottom, when you compare it with the Nikkei Index you can see Japan's market is indeed much weaker. Since Japan is the I-fund's most heavily weighted market, and the Dollar is gaining strength, I believe the I-Fund will suffer more than the C&S, until this picture changes.
View attachment 7825

 

[Boghie]

Boghie,

Can you provide your logic for the prediction on the Fund I? Thanks.

These are conjectures - so you (The I of Sauron) and the Nazgul Nine) shouldn't take anything out of it if you differ:

• The I Fund is Japan and Europe - not BRIC
• Bernanke will raise interest rates
• The dollar will strengthen
• The EU is wobbly
• Japan -

And, the biggest factor:

You will beat me like a red headed step sister with my 3 diversified allocation strategy if the I Fund outperforms again

Nice hunting this year!!!

Hope you didn't mind the whole Tolkien thang this year. For the entire year you and nine other folks kept moving like a guided whole. At some point one of the Nine was disappeared - but, still fun.

 

[grandma]

Originally Posted by James48843
I have yet to hear anyone make note of the "Obama rally". But facts are that the market HAS done well so far.
Let us "hope" for more positive things to happen for the market in 2010.
I like that kind of "hope".

Does this include giving him credit that there was no increase in my everyday Cost Of Living these past 12 months - the year 2009?
Just that alone is an amazement, especially since I've received notice that some bills are increasing d/t they `won't be able to make it' on the amounts received from me this very same past year!! I used to
think :embarrest: that any COLA given was to enable those companies to increase their fees, etc. But I have been brought up short in that belief - cuz insurances, etc, all went up without giving me the COLA! Fascinating!!!

 

[wwwtractor]

Boghie,

Can you provide your logic for the prediction on the Fund I? Thanks.

 

[Boghie]

Personally,

As stated in the 2010 prediction thread, I figure an amazing 3% growth in the C Fund for 2010.

There will be swings as the FED increases interest rates and tries to sell off its holdings and the dollar gains strength. Then, toward the end of the year folks in after tax accounts will sell out their profitable holdings to lock in 15% capital gains and dividends rates.

Thus, the C Fund - in my mind on the second day of the year - will churn to a very low return. I think the S Fund will do likewise. The I Fund will probably do worse.

That ain't looking to hopeful, but a slow adjusting trading method will probably double the return. Just a guess.

 

[Boghie]

James,

We will see.

I mean the former occupant of the White House gave us a 91% market gain for a big chunk of his Presidency!!!

I got my $13/pay period. It was nice, but not overwhelming. Paid for half my beer purchases on dart night. However, I don't think it spurred the stock market by 67%. That is the only break I got. Do I get it this year as well? My dad - a small business owner - got nada from any of those tax changes. He didn't spend last year rolling in gold. For me, 2011 will result in a $110 loss in income per pay period (two weeks). As I adjust to that fact I will affect the economy and the market. As a matter of fact I am listening to a financial planning show on the radio as I type. They are emphasizing tax management to adjust to President Obama's changes.

I, for one, expected a rebound to a new neutral. Nothing in the 57% decline made sense. However, the new neutral seems to be at 72% of the former high. Note the two month plateau. From here, my guess is anemic GDP growth, minimal equity growth (with moderate swings), continued growth in unemployment, and a mysterious decline in profit as corporations and investors adjust to changes in dividend and capital gains tax treatments. That does not bode well for 2010.

Anyway, didn't you spend an awful lot of time in the G Fund for someone exuding such confidence? I mean, you were largely in the G Fund for a hundred calendar days, 27% of the year. Earlier, say 2007, you spent far more time in the market. What gives.

If GDP grows robustly (at least 3.5%, hopefully in the more normal 5% - 8% range for a recovery), the market grows by 10%, and unemployment falls to 6% in 2010 than I am with you.

Have some confidence.
There is hope and change.

 

[James48843]

I won't credit him for the rally, but I will give him credit for something even better - calling the bottom. Almost to the day of the bottom in March Obama said it is probably a good time to be buying stocks.

Good point. He said that on March 3rd:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...obama_says_buy_stocks_now_good_deals_the.html

 

[tsptalk]

Facts are facts:
When our President was sworn into office on January 20, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 805.22, and was headed down. The price of a share of C fund in the TSP was $9.31.

I won't credit him for the rally, but I will give him credit for something even better - calling the bottom. Almost to the day of the bottom in March Obama said it is probably a good time to be buying stocks.

 

[Birchtree]

The bull market is looking forward as it always does - especially to November 2010 when we'll get change we can count on. That's the real reality.

 

[Show-me]

All these tax cuts come to a bunch of baloney and spending that is artificial and unnecessary. Spurred the market into collecting more money via the taxpayer.

We will revisit this because these acts normally take years to have a effect.

Obama had nothing to do with the "dead cat bounce" from a stock market that declined to 666 on the S&P. Give credit where credit is due..........Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke.

Let's see if he can sustain it with 10% plus unemployment. That will be the trick.

 

[James48843]

That's a start.

Facts are facts:
When our President was sworn into office on January 20, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 805.22, and was headed down. The price of a share of C fund in the TSP was $9.31.

Today, less than a year later, the S&P 500 is at 1115.10. The price of a share of the C fund today is $13.21.

You think it was something OTHER than the restored confidence in markets, in part, by the actions of our President? Sure, whatever. You are welcome to think whatever you want as to why. The important thing is---it IS recovering now.

I look forward to continued recovery of the stock market as we move forward.

At least that's what Birch keeps saying- bull market ahead.

Right Birch?

 

[James48843]

Laws, Executive Orders, Memorandums, Policy:

Dec 15, 2009 Memorandum Naming Thomson Correctional Center incarceration unit for Guantanamo detainees.
Dec 9, 2009 Memorandum creating the Medicare Federally Qualified Health Center Advanced Primary Care Practice demonstration, to conduct experiments and demonstrations on changes in payments and services that may improve the quality and efficiency of services to beneficiaries
Dec 9, 2009 Labor - Management Forums between managers, employees, and union reps will discuss workplace challenges and develop solutions jointly.
Nov 23, 2009 Executive Order Reducing Improper Payments and Eliminating Waste in Federal Programs
Nov 17, 2009 Executive Order Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force to support investigation and prosecution of cases of bank, mortgage, loan, and lending fraud; securities and commodities fraud; retirement plan fraud; mail and wire fraud; tax crimes; money laundering; False Claims Act violations; unfair competition; discrimination; and other financial crimes and violations.
Nov 9, 2009 Executive Order Veteran's Employment Initiative creates Council on Veteran's Employment.
Nov 6, 2009 Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 which additional emergency unemployment compensation; extends the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit through April 30, 2010, increases from two to five preceding years the period for which businesses can offset net operation losses in 2008 and 2009 against income;
Oct 31, 2009 Ryan White Act
Oct 30, 2009 Visitors Records Released
Oct 28, 2009 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010
Matthew Shepherd - James Byrd Jr Hate Crimes Act
Oct 22, 2009 Veterans Health Care Budget Reform and Transparency Act
Oct 5, 2009 Executive Order Setting Sustainability Goals For Federal Agencies
Sep 17, 2009 Medical Tort Reform Demonstration Grants
Aug 6, 2009 Creation of 3 new scenic trails, Pacific Northwest National Scenic Trail, the New England National Scenic Trail and the Arizona National Scenic Trail
Aug 6, 2009 $2.4 Billion In Advanced Battery Development
Aug 3, 2009 Post 9/11 GI Bill
July 27, 2009 Cash For Clunkers cars.gov
July 6, 2009 Arms Reduction, Bilateral Presidential Commission Russia
Jun 12, 2009 Kids Tobacco Legislation
May 21, 2009 Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform
May 20, 2009 Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights May 19, 2009 Helping Families Save Their Homes Act
May 18, 2009 Mortgage Fraud and Recovery Act and Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
May 12, 2009 Chesapeake Bay Protection and Restoration Exec Order
Apr 21, 2009 Kennedy Serve America Act
Mar 30, 2009 Omnibus Public Lands Wilderness Act
Mar 11, 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act
Mar 11, 2009 Executive Order Creating the White House Council on Women and Girls
Mar 9, 2009 Removing Barriers to Responsible Scientific Research Involving Human Stem Cells
Feb 17, 2009 Recovery & Reinvestment Act
Feb 6, 2009 Executive Order: Use of Project Labor Agreements for Federal Construction Projects
Feb 5, 2009 Amendments to Executive Order 13199 and Establishment of the President's Advisory Council for Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships
Feb 4, 2009 Presidential Memorandum -- State Children's Health Insurance Program
Jan 30, 2009 Executive Order -- Economy in Government Contracting
Jan 30, 2009 Executive Order -- Notificiation of Employee Rights Under Federal Labor Laws
Jan 29, 2009 Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act
Jan 27, 2009 Unexpected Urgent Refugee and Migration Needs Related to Gaza
Jan 26, 2009 The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Jan 26, 2009 California Request for Waiver Under the Clean Air Act
Jan 23, 2009 Mexico City Policy and Assistance for Voluntary Population Planning
Jan 22, 2009 Review of Detention Policy Options
Jan 22, 2009 Review of the Detention of Ali Saleh Kahlah
Jan 22, 2009 Closure Of Guantanamo Detention Facilities
Jan 22, 2009 Ensuring Lawful Interrogations
Jan 21, 2009 Ethics Commitments By Executive Branch Personnel
Jan 21, 2009 Presidential Records
Jan 21, 2009 Freedom of Information Act
Jan 21, 2009 Pay Freeze
Jan 21, 2009 Transparency and Open Government

 

[James48843]

Can you be more specific as to what he did? Or, are we grasping for straws? If your going to give him the credit be specific

Ok, fine.

http://www.obama-mamas.com/obama-recovery-act.htm
For Individuals - Tax Cuts

• Making Work Pay Credit Expanded Earned Income Credit To Offset Payroll Taxes - 6.2 percent of earned income of the taxpayer, $400 ($800 in the case of a joint return) Phased out at $95,000 of individual taxpayer, $190,000 of joint return ETA JUNE
• Child tax credit, Income threshold reduced to $3,000, provides credit of 15% on all earnings, up to $1,000
• American Opportunity Education Credits w/ $2,500 credit for first four years of higher education expenses (increase income limitations), with credit partially-refundable (30% refundable); adds course materials to tuitions and fees, increases credit to taxpayers with $80,000 income or households with $160,000
  Opportunity.gov Education Assistance Programs
• Sales Tax Deduction on new car purchases, phased out on $125,000 income per earner.
• Raises Exemption on AMT to 70,950 for joint filers and $46,700 for singles, expands applicable credits.
• Remove repayment requirement on $8,000 first-time home buyer credit for homes purchased after 2008 and before termination of credit (June 30, 2009)
• Extends tax credits through 2010 to make energy-efficiency improvements to homes, equal to 30 percent (capped at $1,500) of the amount they paid for energy-efficient furnaces, hot water boilers and other energy savings improvements.
• 30 percent uncapped tax credit for solar water heating property, small wind energy property and geothermal heat pumps
• Tax credit for newly unemployed to cover up to 65% of COBRA. Tenured Workers over 55 can maintain COBRA until they are eligible for Medicare.

For Business - Tax Cuts

• Bonus depreciation for capital expenditures and debt cancellation
• 5-year carryback of net operating losses for companies earning less than $15 million
• Extension of increased small business expensing, $250,000 deduction direct from tax liability
• Defer taxes five years on debt cancellation
• Expand work opportunity tax credit for disconnected youth and unemployed, recently-discharged veterans
• Prospectively repeal Treasury Section 382 built-in loss ruling, that helped the Wells Fargo acquisition of Wachovia.

New Small Business Size Eligibilities
For State and Local Governments - Tax Cuts

• Allow financial institutions to purchase State and local bonds and other changes
• Coordination provisions with new grant program for low-income housing being designed by the Financial Services Committee
• Repeal AMT limits on new private activity bonds
• Taxable bond option for governmental bonds
• Clean renewable energy bonds
• One year deferral of withholding tax on government contractors
• Provide tax exempt bonds and tax credit bonds to "recovery zones." These tax exempt bonds and tax credit bonds can be used for a wide array of purposes to stimulate economic development, including job training and education. A "recovery zone" would be an area within a State, city or county that has exhibited high unemployment, foreclosures or poverty. These bonds would be allocated automatically to States and large municipal governments based on the number of unemployed individuals within that area.

For Energy Incentives
Tax Cuts - $20 Billion

• Provides $20 billion in tax incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Three-year extension of the production tax credit (PTC) for electricity derived from wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, landfill gas, waste-to-energy, and marine facilities
• Grants of up to 30 percent of the cost of building certain new renewable energy facility
• Expands tax credits through 2010 for purchases such as new furnaces, energy-efficient windows and doors, roofs, cooling equipment and insulation.
• Provides a tax credit for individuals to purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles, alternative-fuel vehicles, diesel vehicles with advanced lean-burn technologies, and fuel-cell vehicles of up to $7,500
• New manufacturing investment tax credit for investment in advanced energy facilities and other innovative next-generation green technologies.