C-fund

[Boghie]

Boghie,

Can you provide your logic for the prediction on the Fund I? Thanks.

These are conjectures - so you (The I of Sauron) and the Nazgul Nine) shouldn't take anything out of it if you differ:

• The I Fund is Japan and Europe - not BRIC
• Bernanke will raise interest rates
• The dollar will strengthen
• The EU is wobbly
• Japan -

And, the biggest factor:

You will beat me like a red headed step sister with my 3 diversified allocation strategy if the I Fund outperforms again

Nice hunting this year!!!

Hope you didn't mind the whole Tolkien thang this year. For the entire year you and nine other folks kept moving like a guided whole. At some point one of the Nine was disappeared - but, still fun.

 

[JTH]

but, still fun.

All valid points and I whole heartily agree with you. I can't look too far into the future but based on Japan and the Dollar I can easily see the I-fund under-performing in the 1st quarter.

The last quarter showed the Yen taking a nose dive and the dollar gaining considerable ground.
View attachment 7824

Also, while the S&P 500 has retraced 50% off the March bottom, when you compare it with the Nikkei Index you can see Japan's market is indeed much weaker. Since Japan is the I-fund's most heavily weighted market, and the Dollar is gaining strength, I believe the I-Fund will suffer more than the C&S, until this picture changes.
View attachment 7825

 

[James48843]

This is where we start the year-2010.

With the S&P 500 at 1115.10.

Good luck.

View attachment 7827
​

 

[Show-me]

Stock Traders Alminac sez the first five day rule is almost a contrary indicator in a midterm election year. In 15 midterm years only 7 followed the indicator correctly.

The last 36 up first five days were followed by full year gains 31 times.

 

[Show-me]

I will add that 10 of the last 15 midterm years followed the "month" of January.

Also, 2009 has the honor of being the worse S&P 500 January on record.

 

[Boghie]

James,

President Obama picked the low in the market, recommended we dumb money get back in, and carefully monitored the 67% boom through the leavers of Federal power.

The DOW is now at 10,428
Your 2010 projection is 9,210
You spent 100 days in the G Fund

So, you are projecting that 'The One' will guide the market down 12%. That implies the S&P will be 981. Thus, the C Fund will end the year around $11.63. Maybe it will be the best for us.

I, for one, am far more positive - and have been more positive - regarding our Fearless Leaders guiding hand. I am predicting that President Obama will shepherd us to an S&P 500 of 1148 by the end of the calendar year. That implies a C Fund price quote of $13.61.

I stand ready to hazzah the leader of the realm :laugh:

 

[merlin]

Since small caps usually lead the way. Isn't time for the CFund to start moving upward?

 

[Frixxxx]

Since small caps usually lead the way. Isn't time for the CFund to start moving upward?

I think this is the biggest indicator that something is not 100% in this bull run.....

I know I shouldn't say that.

Even though I like the returns this year already, I think small caps is the smart money right now.....

 

[mayday]

No sell sign yet.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?spx

 

[twodaystocks]

F fund for investors

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49815214

Nice article on CNBC talking about how investors are putting more weight into municipal bonds (F Fund) because of concerns over market direction.

 

[twodaystocks]

The C fund weekly chart shows a breakdown from its long term trend. The price, TSI, & MFI are all moving in a bearish direction.

Oh how I wish the TSP would start an inverse fund such as SDS, SPXS, DXD, or any other major index inverse fund. It would give members a much better way to grow their accounts in a bear market. Im fairly sure nobody would mind a 10% profit in a down market, compared to a possible 1% when an account is transferred to F or G.

 

[James48843]

Just wanted to note that today we crossed 1500 in the S&P 500 for the first time since 2007.
I think we may flirt with that milestone for a while.

Historically, here are other milestones on the S&P 500, and when we crossed them:

Milestones for The
Standard & Poor's 500 Index:

S&P 500 Index Breaks The 100 Mark: June 4, 1968 (100.38)

S&P 500 Index Breaks The 200 Mark: November 21, 1985 (201.41)

S&P 500 Index Breaks The 500 Mark: March 24, 1995 (500.97)

S&P 500 Index Breaks The 1000 Mark: February 2, 1998 (1,001.27)

S&P 500 Index Breaks The 1500 Mark: March 22, 2000 (1,500.64)

S&P 500 Index All Time Record High: October 9, 2007 (1,565.15)

Glad we're back to where we were in 2000.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I feel for the folks that bought in early 2000 and are just now going to show a profit... How do you calculate those returns?

$1
13 years

 

[wavecoder]

I feel for the folks that bought in early 2000 and are just now going to show a profit... How do you calculate those returns?

$1
13 years

if they bought SPY they probably made money from the quarterly dividends. not a great amount but better than nothing, wish tsp funds would also give the quarterly divs (or do they and just reflect it in the overall share price?)

 

[CrabClaw]

I feel for the folks that bought in early 2000 and are just now going to show a profit... How do you calculate those returns?

$1
13 years

keeps the math nice-n-simple :blink:

 

[Frixxxx]

if they bought SPY they probably made money from the quarterly dividends. not a great amount but better than nothing, wish tsp funds would also give the quarterly divs (or do they and just reflect it in the overall share price?)

Disappearing Dividends - Pay & Benefits Watch - Pay & Benefits - GovExec.com

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

keeps the math nice-n-simple :blink:

Kinda like our G-Fund returns

 

[blueroadster]

if they bought SPY they probably made money from the quarterly dividends. not a great amount but better than nothing, wish tsp funds would also give the quarterly divs (or do they and just reflect it in the overall share price?)

Dividends on TSP funds are built into the share price values reported. They are not paid out in the form of additional shares.

 

[TommyIV]

Volatile day for the S&P 500 (C-fund). The S&P 500 opened down 1.58% and in less than three hours is now up 1.79% for the day.

 

[JTH]

From the March 2020 Pandemic low, to the December 2021 peak, to today, we've retraced 50%

SPX Monthly chart: