Bullitt's Account Talk

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Nnuut, you sure that indicator isn't just a seismograph in disguise trying to predicting the next earthquake? :laugh:
 
Bullitt said:
Nnuut, you sure that indicator isn't just a seismograph in disguise trying to predicting the next earthquake? :laugh:
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Looks like an earthquake on the way! I really couldn't figure it out, just looked it up and passed it on. If Birch uses it, it must be good for something?:laugh::confused:
 
southbeachrat said:
PermaBulls and PermaBears are always right. It just depends on the season.
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The market is always right. Ken Fisher, one of the sharpest minds in the global market of today refers to the market as, 'The Great Humiliator'. I can't think of a better nickname.
 
Bullitt, you still think the financial sector is still a value trap? The financials will lead us out of this. These FFR cuts have to spur growth somewhere in the next couple quarters. What are you eyeing as a accumulation sign or signs? We didn't get an all-in institutional accumulation after the capitulation open... although several probably started to DCA. Maybe the big boys are just putting one toe in at a time.
 
fedgolfer said:
still think the financial sector is still a value trap? The financials will lead us out of this....Maybe the big boys are just putting one toe in at a time.
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XLF is going to lead us out of this storm just as they led us into it. Financials were showing good signs of reversal around September, but look what happened. It's a positive that the writedowns from C and BAC weren't as bad as first presumed. Gasparino was calling for a $24 Billion write down from C. He needs to recheck his sources, but looks like he could use some sleep first.

Here's the thing as with any investment... What is your time horizon? I think financials are at great levels and have been walking the talk the whole way down. (There is no such thing as a safe, non speculative investment.) Run a stockscreen with the S&P 500 as the index membership and minimum dividend yield of 4% and take a look at the results. Now for example, even with C's dividend cut, it's still paying 5% yield. You can probably write off those ones at the top as being unsafe. I think WB is something like 14% yield. USB, BAC, WFC, JPM, C.... Excellent times to be watching these stocks for an entry. If you like the trading aspect, take a look at MER, BSC, LEH, but tread carefully with those companies as they really made some leveraged bets that are probably still looming. I'm hoping the river card was dealt in this mess when BAC decided to acquire CFC. Maybe it will turn out to be the ace of spades.

I'm not a subscriber to the following methods stated, but as with the Dogs of the Dow theory, there are numerous modern theories that include the Dogs of the S&P 500, S&P 100, etc. They all seem to be based on dividend yield and index membership.

As far as accumulation/distribution of the financials.... your guess is as good as mine. I'm sure there are some Mutual Fund Managers establishing positions within the Financials every day. You'll never know how many MM's are building positions by watching charts, these guys are to smart to show their hand. With these companies getting destroyed the way they have lately, a lot of holders that at one time claimed to be long term investors gave in and folded to the media pressure.

Again, only my opinion, but as a long term investor you will be rewarded in these financials. Over time some of these giants will eventually begin to spin off various components of the company to the shareholder. One more thing. A dividend is real. Earnings and EPS of non dividend paying stocks can be manipulated. Even though a dividend may get cut it will still be something real that you can hold in your possession. When is CSCO going to pay out a dividend? Until it does, the stock is merely a trade.
 
I've certainly paid my dues and still paying some, but I'm glad I own all my assets. There will come a time again when they will revalue - but until then I've got dividend reinvestments to help redeem my virtues. Irrational markets are at worst only a periodic nuisance. You offer many excellent points.
 
A bear market is often defined as a 20% decline in stock prices. As of yesterday's close, the S&P 500 was down 16% from its Oct. 9 peak. In other words, if this turns out to be a standard bear market, the pain is almost over -- and there isn't much point in bailing out now.
Jonathan Clements
www.wsj.com
 
The upside volume from this trading session was much higher than that of the reversal day we saw in August. Hedge Funds had a panic attack of the bullish type today.
 
Good bear blasting this week, but we're not out of the woods yet. I wonder if the street is back playing the game of 'Let's drive up prices before the next Fed meeting and then sell when it happens'.

While the best market timers' bullishness may be deteriorating, Hulbert does find one hopeful contrast that should provide a modicum of hope for contrarians: the ten worst market timers are currently short the market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={4C451D4F-9882-47B0-95B2-D4BA80A730CE}
 
Bullitt said:
Good bear blasting this week, but we're not out of the woods yet. I wonder if the street is back playing the game of 'Let's drive up prices before the next Fed meeting and then sell when it happens'.

While the best market timers' bullishness may be deteriorating, Hulbert does find one hopeful contrast that should provide a modicum of hope for contrarians: the ten worst market timers are currently short the market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={4C451D4F-9882-47B0-95B2-D4BA80A730CE}
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imo, you will have the opposite
 
The Fed has had it all wrong from the gate but I'm not saying they are stupid. If you go back to the early subprime fallout, the Fed claimed that the problem in subprime lending was contained. Now the Powers That Be are on a worldwide blitz marketing the stability of the US Economy. Condoleeza Rice was talking economics on NPR this morning. To make matters worse, some French guy destroys a bank with highly leveraged bets in the wrong direction. No matter who you are, the short term is simply a fools game.

Either way, once we're confirmed to be in a recession, we'll most likely be clawing our way out of the hole. I'll continue to sit tight. It's been tempting to make some additional individual stock buys in the midst of this, but it would've been too emotionally driven. My indicators say we won't know if we've hit a bottom until Monday at the earliest. Until then, I'll leave the panic buying to some Hedge Fund who's 50% leveraged.

Nnuut, as for that link you posted... I like the part where he says Steve Liesman (perma bear) knew about this 'surprise cut' Monday night. I believe that wholeheartedly. Nothing on Wall Street is ever a 'surprise'. When there's money to be made, greed will always ensue.
 
That blog was hilarious! http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.p...postcount=3084

I was actually looking at mortgage rates that same day he was talking about, 30 yr fixed dropped to 5.00% ! I called the mortgage broker, eveyone was busy, and by the time I got through, the fricken rate went up a quarter point!! Oh well, I still got a 5.75% fixed rate on my house.

This guy seems to make sense to me. I'm currently riding the wave but think there will be a down trend once more.

My main question is...sell some Friday or wait until Monday? We SHOULD end up Friday given Microsoft, but, like that blogger guy says, I will NOT be looking for the FED to "feed the crack whore". I bet they drop another 0.25 for a total of 1.00. Their text will continue to say they do not expect a recession, and if they dare mention inflation, we are going down hard.
 
Of course nobody knows what will happen, but I'm leaning on running to safety COB Friday. They (whoever they are?) say are in a Bear market and bounces don't last very long. Next week there is much on the agenda, I'm worried that the GDP may come in below expectations, I think that comes Tuesday? I'm about sure that tomorrow will start to the upside, some good Stuff in after hours trading tonight--( http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/st...fterhours.asp?count=25&skip=0&sort=54&sortd=0
but am afraid it could die in the afternoon. If we finish strong tomorrow Monday may do likewise. Too bad we have a 12:00 deadline!:cool:
 
Bullitt said:
I'm still waiting for CIBC, MS, LEH and GS to slap a sell rating on themselves.
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Finally, a financial institution that downgraded every bank but themselves in the beginning of this mess is coming clean.

"Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the country's worst-performing bank stock over the past year, may take $4.1 billion in pretax writedowns in the first quarter, according to CIBC World Markets analyst Darko Mihelic."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aThkcBGKXlhk&refer=canada
 
"Prior to the onset of recession, there's typically at least a 25% one-year rise in weekly unemployment claims. The increase in claims in December was less than 7%. So a recession is not imminent. Every one of the 23 times since 1987 that the ratio of bears to bulls in the weekly American Association of Individual Investors poll has exceeded two (as now), the market was up 12 months later, by an average of 21%."

Michael Santoli
Barron's Magazine
1/28/08

I'm on Santoli's side in all of this. The two day bounce off of the 1270 area was on some of the biggest volume this market has seen in years. Too bad there wasn't higher volume today, but maybe this market will begin to form a base. A base would provide for a more powerful next leg up than a V bottom. Why are the analysts telling us to sell now when they should have been telling us in June-July to begin scaling down?

I've stopped worrying about what the Fed will do next. It's too bad that Ben had to become is the Street's puppet, but I don't think having a different Chairman would make much of a difference anyway.

I'm sticking to the road less travelled and still Bullish for 2008.
 
Days like today make me glad to be the kind of person I am. A 'Pessimist', if you can believe it. It doesn't mean I'm a mean person, no way. It just means that I'm not surprised whenever 'unforeseen and suprise' news crashes the party.

I can't let the decisions made by the FOMC affect my own decisions. I'm just glad that their antics should be done for a while. How about Gasparino finally getting one of his prophecies correct. Maybe he'll be able to get some sleep tonight. I'm still waiting for him or Brian 'The Brain' Faber to fall off the deep end like Santelli one of these days. Boy, I'd love to hear what those two have to say about all of this 'off the record.'

At least these downgrades should pound investor sentiment further down into the ground.
 
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