Bullitt's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I did very little buying on the third bottom, but I'm trying to do myself justice on this bottom. I've got 51 more purchases to go on my buy back program - I keep reminding myself it's the income son. My feet are dancing underneath my desk - I'm blushing with adrenalin.

 

[Bullitt]

Glad that we got that Citibank nightmare out of the system, it's time to move on. After seeing how INTC did with their earnings miss, this bull is preparing for another chapter in the school of hard knocks on Wednesday. This could be the day that we get a complete market blowout of the August lows. With INTC being down as hard as it is, it's a real possibility. Actually, it looks like the DJIA hammered thru the August lows today thanks to Citi.​

If anyone is angry over those credit card companies and all the stupid applications they send out daily, don't worry. They are next on the chopping block. One thing I always thought of in the early stages of this credit mess was how the credit card companies would fare when the going got tough. The only one with any positive RS is MA, and it's setting up for technical move to the downside.​

I'm thinking more and more people are going to jump on the commodities train as things get worse. I heard that Gold is going to $1000 but If I'm not there for the run, start without me.​

I'm tired of hearing about the Fed as a scapegoat in all of this. What could they have done any better to avert this credit predicament? Even if they suprise with a rate cut it's only going to give the GS types a chance to exit their long side trades and initiate additional short side trades. What about all the people living above their....Ahh, what's the use. It's like kicking a dead horse.​

The bears have us on the ropes. I don't see too many 'recession proof' stocks out there that haven't been bid up already. At this point, I think anyone is better off staying in cash than seeking 'safe stocks'. As far as TSP, I'm holding on and still riding this out. It's still good times to accumulate via the bi-weekly contri.​

 

[alevin]

If anyone is angry over those credit card companies and all the stupid applications they send out daily, don't worry. They are next on the chopping block. ...all the people living above their.... It's still good times to accumulate via the bi-weekly contri.

Agreed. I've kept the bi-weekly accumulating CSI, nibble nibble, and Monday I decided no better time to bump back up to 10%, I've been doing 5% for a few years using the rest to pay off the house, but even tho thats still 2-3 months away yet, I decided bumping the contributions starting now was a good move this year even if it slows the paydown train a smidge.

 

[Tempest]

Makes you wonder what the next 'Bubble' will be.

Pays to look ahead.

Tech? Naw.

Real Estate HAHAHA naw

Precious metal....sssshhhhh

 

[Birchtree]

OEX and NDX I think - the biggest of the best.

 

[Bullitt]

Makes you wonder what the next 'Bubble' will be.

Sure does. Buy hey, those guys on TV and media need someone to unload their commodity shares to. Nothing wrong with investing in a possible bubble, as long as you're not the last one out. I'd rather just avoid them and not take a chance.

I don't think that riding this rollercoaster is for everyone. Just because you took a hit doesn't mean it's time to become a 'long term investor'. We'll see how many are fit for the long term when capitulation hits.

After today, it's obvious that the bears fear the fed. In Tuesday's JPM trading, puts outnumbered calls 2:1 after Citi's report. That should explain why it was up so much today. I'm not saying the Fed is going to solve the problems we're facing but it seems most people are either hoping for a miracle or are just flat out afraid of getting blown out by Bernanke.

 

[Bullitt]

Nearly every stock I've got on my radar has been driven down to a support line. Setting up for a bounce, but I'm going to let things play out for a while. I'm not really in the mood to catch a falling knife today.

Still holding on in TSP.

 

[12%ayear]

White House press going on now. They are saying that they will agree to stimulus package under a month time.

 

[Bullitt]

I just went to Yahoo homepage and there is a pic of some sorry Specialist with his head in his hands. There were multiple links to 'recession proof stocks' and 'how to protect your portfolio', etc. That is a reversal sign. Here's another. Some of my daily blogs and market info I read are talking about how they are getting higher traffic with questions on inverse ETF's. If you don't know by now, you never will.

Always remember that the market is forward looking. By time we actually get the numbers proving we're in a recession, the market will already be reversing course.

 

[Birchtree]

And that's the truth!

 

[Bullitt]

Too much doom and gloom out there. The numbers don't lie.

Bears take heed. Today's action put the Vix up 17% and the CBOE Put/Call ratio to 1.53. Something to think about as you run to 'safety'.

 

[Birchtree]

There is a statistic called the open 10 and I'm not really sure what that is but it came in last week at 1.70 and that value hasn't been seen since 1942. It's probably even greater now. The TRINs are all blowed out. Margin calls will start to kick in tomorrow on the open for the intraday downside and then we should rally.

 

[Bullitt]

Specialists are some of the most 'in the know' players in the market since they can see the market with x-ray like vision. Therefore, they are usually a good indicator of which way things are heading. If we were to pin the term Smart Money on one particular group, it doesn't get any smarter than this. Specialists aren't considered a contrarian indicator. Chart courtesy of MarketGauge.com.

 

[southbeachrat]

I've never seen that specialists indicator before Bullitt. Thanks for posting it. It seems to me that it would be as reliable as any other indicator.

It's a typical example of why I belong to this group.

 

[Bullitt]

Southbeachrat, I'll post it more often then. It's a weekly thing, I threw it up there due to the extreme levels it indicated. Allegedly, it's most accurate during extreme readings. I have a feeling the specialists lightened the load this past week for 1. Market was sitting on strong support, and 2. The fear of a surprise cut.

It should be interesting with this 3 day weekend ahead. I'm sure all the technical analysts will be showing the public how the market broke support and that the support will now act as resistance. Also, all the Joe sixback types will be talking investing strategies and analyzing the economic plan at the 19th hole this weekend. Hopefully this additional bearishness will help bring on the capitulation this market desperately needs.

I can see next week being a complete wipeout if any tech companies report an outlook similar to that of INTC. One thing is for sure. Looking back, this whole week has been a complete gaggle. From everyone trader trying to set themselves up for the surprise cut that never came to GW's attempt at a New Deal, it has just been outright pathetic.

Haven't changed a thing in my investment strategy. I almost did do some buying of a few stocks on my radar, but I just walked away from the computer knowing that a better opportunity will arise sooner or later.

 

[Bullitt]

the Joe sixback types will be talking investing strategies and analyzing the economic plan at the 19th hole this weekend.

I can see next week being a complete wipeout

I wonder how many sell orders are being placed for tomorrow based on futures and OSM's activity? Here it comes.

 

[Mr recognizer]

There is a statistic called the open 10 and I'm not really sure what that is but it came in last week at 1.70 and that value hasn't been seen since 1942. It's probably even greater now. The TRINs are all blowed out. Margin calls will start to kick in tomorrow on the open for the intraday downside and then we should rally.

birch..i admire your optimistic side but dont you think you have been overplayin this to much in the past few months.. IT IS WHAT IT IS....your credibility is shrinking....nothing personal.

 

[southbeachrat]

PermaBulls and PermaBears are always right. It just depends on the season.

This week is gonna be Ugly with a capital U. Let's get it over with.

 

[Birchtree]

Mr. recognizer,

I'm only doing what I know how to do and that is being a long term investor. I have made money over the years and I've certainly given some back over the years. My future remains bright from my perspective and also a good pummelling on occassion is refreshing. All I'm thinking about now is how lucky I am to have dividend reinvestments taking opportunity of these current and up coming golden prices. I'm going to get my share to further add to my asset base. My techniques have nothing to do with credibility son, only accumulation of down and out assets. I take in a lot of information, digest it and when I chit it out it still comes out smelling like superlative bull manure - yes I'm still a rampaging bull and can't find any solid reasons to change my stance. If I'm wrong then I'll still be strong. Snort.

 

[nnuut]

There is a statistic called the open 10 and I'm not really sure what that is but it came in last week at 1.70 and that value hasn't been seen since 1942. It's probably even greater now. The TRINs are all blowed out. Margin calls will start to kick in tomorrow on the open for the intraday downside and then we should rally.

Open-10 TRIN

A smoothed variation of the Arms Index, the Open-10 TRIN study is a market breadth indicator that uses advancing/declining volume and advancing/declining issues to measure the market's strength or momentum.
http://www.traderslog.com/open-10.htm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24trin