Bullitt's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

I'm an indexer planning on staying the course and only rebalancing when things get out of whack.

Some words to the new TSP'ers.

1: Have a financial plan. Trading stocks based on which way the wind is blowing today is not a viable LT strategy.
2: Save as much as you can and live within your means. Let someone else buy the iPods, iPhones and V8 Hemi trucks.
3: Spend time reading about the macro themes when it comes to investing (ie: Panic of 1907, 1932 crash, tech bubble, value investing, asset allocation) and leave CNBC to the guys on Wall Street who make millions whether their investments pan out or crash.
4: Sentiment drives markets in the short term.
5: This MB is an absolute wealth of knowledge- Don't forget about the years of archives contained within.

Here it is below, my entire asset allocation:

TSP
G 25
F 10
C 25
S 20
I 20

Roth IRA
VT 40%
BND 30%
EDV 10%

Taxable: Mostly in a US total market index fund, some in an Africa Middle East fund, and some in a sector blend fund at T Rowe Price
Dividend Stocks: (5% of investments) MRK, DEO, EXC, WMT, RTN

I'm doing well and I hope everybody else is doing the same. Hope nobody was injured or hurt in those tornadoes in April. Have a great Spring/Summer! Take care.

 

[JamesE]

Good to see you back around man, don't stay gone so long.

Jim

 

[TSPIntel]

Bullitt is not on the AutoTracker

Mr TSPTalk: I did not know. Thank you for the info.

 

[TSPIntel]

I'm an indexer planning on staying the course and only rebalancing when things get out of whack.

Some words to the new TSP'ers.

1: Have a financial plan. Trading stocks based on which way the wind is blowing today is not a viable LT strategy.
2: Save as much as you can and live within your means. Let someone else buy the iPods, iPhones and V8 Hemi trucks.
3: Spend time reading about the macro themes when it comes to investing (ie: Panic of 1907, 1932 crash, tech bubble, value investing, asset allocation) and leave CNBC to the guys on Wall Street who make millions whether their investments pan out or crash.
4: Sentiment drives markets in the short term.
5: This MB is an absolute wealth of knowledge- Don't forget about the years of archives contained within.

Here it is below, my entire asset allocation:

TSP
G 25
F 10
C 25
S 20
I 20

Roth IRA
VT 40%
BND 30%
EDV 10%

Taxable: Mostly in a US total market index fund, some in an Africa Middle East fund, and some in a sector blend fund at T Rowe Price
Dividend Stocks: (5% of investments) MRK, DEO, EXC, WMT, RTN

I'm doing well and I hope everybody else is doing the same. Hope nobody was injured or hurt in those tornadoes in April. Have a great Spring/Summer! Take care.

Mr Bullitt: Thank you for all your wisdom and insides. We will follow them as possible.

 

[grandma]

Bullitt ! I'm sorry I missed your visit this evening. It was good to hear from you, and that you are well ! And thank you for sharing your expertise & what you are doing in this ongoing market...
Grandma

 

[Bullitt]

Been a while since posting to the old account talk.

TSP and Roth IRA: Still 60/40 stocks to bonds. Looking above it looks I made a typing error. Should've read VT 60, not 40. Had a limit order on VT for the past 6 months that finally hit today. Is it a good time to buy? I honestly have no idea but when I put the order in I felt today's price was a good price to buy. In TSP I rebalance after there are moves of around 10% up or down- otherwise I just let the winners ride.

Taxable: I still have the buy and hold stock account similar to Permabull #1 where I just let the dividends pile up along the account comprised of those same 3 funds.

The only thing we have control over in all of this is our savings rate. Pay yourself first. It's much easier to make those contributions to savings when the money is being taken out automatically than when you're trying to allocate it after the fact. You can set up automatic deposits to your Scottrade, local bank, credit union, or whatever vehicle it is of your choosing and not have to worry about 'finding the money' for savings after you get that paycheck.

Stay healthy and stay focused on the macro, but make sure your foxhole is deep.

 

[nnuut]

Good to hear from you Mr. Bullitt been a while, your posts are always spot on.

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome back bullitt. Good to see you!

 

[Bullitt]

Current TSP: 65 stocks/35 bonds.
Roth IRA: 60 VT/30 BND/10 (various sector ETF's/stocks)
Taxable: See posts #601, 606

No plans to add additional VT until it goes below 50.

I recently posted to the blog area regarding High Frequency Trading and the markets. Link in signature line below.

 

[Bullitt]

[Duplicate Post Error]

 

[Bullitt]

Re-balanced as part of a non-emotional strategy that sells what is high and buys what is low. F Fund was higher by around 1% and C/S/I were lower by around .5%. Will re-balance again if any funds get significantly away from their allotted percentage.

Looking to purchase a commodity ETF or two and planning to add extra cash to the tugboat US Total Market account if we hit 1625-1650.

 

[Bullitt]

Stocks just drifting along in summer trading and I'm thinking another good time to buy lies ahead.

Besides scheduled buys in my total market account, and reinvested dividends along the way, I never did buy a commodity ETF like I was hoping because they just didn't come back enough for me. One of these months we'll get a VIX of 30 and that will be a good time to put money to work with some opportunistic buys.

When the next correction comes we'll see what gets hammered the hardest in the commodity or emerging market field and consider them. Until then, still maintaining 65% stocks, 35% bonds in TSP; I'll let someone else be an 'aggressive' investor- whatever that means. Take control of your savings rate. If you're contributing $100 a month to a savings/investing account, you can do $110 a month.

Stay healthy, enjoy taking evening walks in your neighborhood this summer, and when your co-workers tell you they're buying or selling, do the opposite!

 

[Frixxxx]

Thanks for the post! Good to see you!

 

[Bullitt]

Finally a little bit of excitement in the markets after watching AAPL and NFLX grow to the sky the past 2 years. Chanos can finally sleep at night, but he started shorting China 5 years ago, so his timing was way off.

The fed is in trouble now. I'm sure there were a few banks and hedge funds running to the fed lending window this afternoon asking for free money to cover losses in whatever they thought was a good investment in China. Raising rates in the slightest will bury anyone holding foreign debt with higher payments in USD. I'd imagine many Chinese 'investments' from 'sophisticated investors' are locked up and inaccessible at the moment. Better them than us in that predicament.

Will this week bring a 50 on the VIX? Long term 40-50 have been great buying opportunities except in the case of 2008 which was a crash.

Being down almost 12% from the high makes this an opportune time to re-balance the portfolio. Diversified portfolios are able to weather bear markets as long as one re-balances during opportune times.

- Set a diversified portfolio and forget about CNBC.
- Rebalance periodically and make sure dividends are reinvested in personal accounts.
- Set realistic savings goals and contribute (if you aren't already) to your a rainy day fund until you're comfortable.

TSP: 65 SCI / 35 FG.

 

[Bullitt]

Animal spirits are showing up. Been a lot of talk amongst co-workers the past 2 weeks about "timing the TSP" and "beating everyone else". Not only is it those I work with every day, but also by a few that I only talk to periodically from other offices that have been bragging about their fabulous "market gainz".

With nosebleed sentiment levels (FOMO on the next AAPL or TSLA), markets keep marching higher on hundreds of billions in liquidity from China and the US combined. It's not different this time. Indicators serve as early warning and are always clear in hindsight.

Breadth has been pretty lackluster during this Corona bounce. Equity PC ratios show call buying hand over fist. Bond prices continue to make higher lows. VIX still above the 50DMA.

Don't forget about distribution days. According to the IBD method, 5 distribution days in a 4-5 week period is a sign of institutional selling.

SPX has four.



NYSE has six.

 

[nnuut]

Good stuff Bullitt, glad to see you posting again!!

 

[Boghie]

Animal spirits are showing up. Been a lot of talk amongst co-workers the past 2 weeks about "timing the TSP" and "beating everyone else". Not only is it those I work with every day, but also by a few that I only talk to periodically from other offices that have been bragging about their fabulous "market gainz".

With nosebleed sentiment levels (FOMO on the next AAPL or TSLA), markets keep marching higher on hundreds of billions in liquidity from China and the US combined. It's not different this time. Indicators serve as early warning and are always clear in hindsight.

Breadth has been pretty lackluster during this Corona bounce. Equity PC ratios show call buying hand over fist. Bond prices continue to make higher lows. VIX still above the 50DMA.

Don't forget about distribution days. According to the IBD method, 5 distribution days in a 4-5 week period is a sign of institutional selling.

Not too worried about the corona virus, but am starting to notice articles about personal debt levels that don't look too wonderful

I think the market still has some catching up to do after 2008 - that was a way overdone 'correction'. In fact, looked at singularly last year was Clintonesque and waiting for a correction. Taken as a three year span of the Trump Presidency we are looking at S&P500 gains averaging 15%/year. That is, a little bit above normal - but not outside of expectations.

It is ALWAYS a concern when normal plebes are market timing. ALWAYS...

I might move my allocation to my conservative blend sooner than I want. I think we are about 20% below where the market should be - thus, the 15% annual gains rather than 10%. But, that does not mean that there cannot be an internal, short term correction to blow the wanna be speculators out of the game. Why be 'Buy and Holding' if the market is ready to correct?

And, if the goobers are buying it is best to be selling

 

[Bullitt]

corona virus

The virus is worse than China is reporting and they are showing the world that they truly are a third world country in how this mess has been handled. We see the small percentage that live wealthy lives. We don't see the ones living on mice, bats and snakes.

The Chinese government panicked and injected a record amount of liquidity into markets. Nothing more than a shot of caffeine. Oil and copper might be finding a floor here, but I'm not ready to call a bottom.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ch-record-highs-on-china-liquidity-injections

US is doing the same thing to support money markets - inject massive liquidity. This was only supposed to be temporary. I don't see how markets decline much before this money market operation ends which is around May I think, but remember, a light doesn't go off at the top.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/a...-term-repo-confirms-persisting-liquidity-woes

 

[nasa1974]

Eventually we have to stop printing money to shore up the economy. If a recession does hit we are in trouble because the interest rates are to low to balance things out. It's also becoming unsustainable to manage trillion dollar budgets. With all the major storms lately how will we pay for the recovery of all these cities and communities?

 

[Bullitt]

Not the kind of breadth I want to see when markets are hitting new highs. This little rally is being driven by only a few stocks. In addition, volume has been declining the past 2 weeks while markets continue their march.



Markets are pulling in as many foolish TSLA, AAPL and MSFT speculators as they can. $SOX index has been a leader the past few months or even years. Not doing much leading here, kind of like the $RUT. Nice MACD divergence there too.



The extreme bearish sentiment just keeps piling up - a little here, a little there. From Jason: "Traders have bought to open more than 200 calls for every 100 puts* for the past two days. That hasn't happened for almost 5 years, in April 2015."

Banks not really leading the charge either. With all this free money floating around, shouldn't the banks be trending higher?



Regional banks diverging. Not benefiting at all from the federal lubricants.



I'm not calling for the death of Ferdinand (at least not yet), but I am expecting a bigger correction than most think is possible - especially one that wipes out all those freshly purchased calls on margin + newly minted bulls and their high flying tech stocks.