Bullitt's Account Talk

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Come back Shane. It's time to play Hopalong Cassidy and round up a few bulls. There is still time to participate before the year ends.
 
"The great stock market bull seeks to condense the future into a few days, to discount the long march of history, and capture the present value of all the future".

--- James Buchan
 
We are seeing just what Bullitt has been telling us. Rather than the dollar continuing to fall on the QE news, the dollar is rallying on overseas trouble - the theory of relativity. :)
 
1. Temporary extension of the temporary tax cuts,
2. Temporary 13 week extension of the temporary extended unemployment benefits,
3. Budget Commission idea to save $4 trillion shot down because things are so bad that desperate times call for desperate measures meaning, rack up more debt.

What are we going to do when the big one hits?
 
Bullitt said:
1. Temporary extension of the temporary tax cuts,
2. Temporary 13 week extension of the temporary extended unemployment benefits,
3. Budget Commission idea to save $4 trillion shot down because things are so bad that desperate times call for desperate measures meaning, rack up more debt.

What are we going to do when the big one hits?[/QUOTE]

I need 24 hours notice.
Click to expand...
 
I've decided that 2011 will be the year that I begin index investing. This wasn't an overnight decision by any means, but one that I've pondered and wrestled over for most of 2010. Cutting out the amount of time spent on charts, blogs, timers, gurus, message boards will allow for more time to be spent with things I love: family, fitness, reading; and also allowing me focus on my career when I'm at my career. Also, I think that in 27+ years or so when I can begin to draw off the TSP and Roth, things will be just fine, even from the doom and gloom demographic perspective.

Can you outperform the markets year over year? Sure you can. You also can play professional baseball. If you do beat the market over the course of 20+ years, will all that time spent studying the markets be worth it for an extra couple percent? So, maybe I'll end up with a lot of money or maybe I won't. Maybe I'll end up somewhere in between, like at the 'market average'. Some questions I've asked myself are, "How much is enough? For me, is money the means or the end?" For some, money is the end, just as the whale was the end for Captain Ahab.

Here is a quote from a "market guru" that I was fortunate to get through to and discuss some issues over email a few years ago:

Whether you decide to swing trade will depend on your lifestyle and how "in tune" you are with the financial markets both at your work and outside of work. (He advised that unless you have a job in finance, you're on the outside.) Keeping track of the evolution of the financial markets and the global economy can be a very interesting endeavor. Swing trading (and the stress that comes with it) is another matter, especially once you start having kids. Unless you can mechanically follow a system's signals, swing trading could be a horrible way to live your life!

However, that system had better be right because even if do you follow a system, it can cost you! Example, this above guru ended up riding the biggest crash in recent history during 2008 as he remained fully invested throughout. So much for his system.

So here is my allocation starting in 2011 which will be rebalanced when it gets slightly out of whack. I don't expect this to be an easy plan to stick to.....

25 G
10 F
25 C
20 S
20 I

I still maintain my account at T Rowe Price which has largely been a buy and hold account over the past few years. I will maintain a small amount of money in my Roth to make those occasional swing trades from time to time.

One more quote that has really stuck: A friend of mine who will retire soon told me recently, "Life is short. You cannot buy back time lost with all the money you may make. Time with your family is the most important thing in your life."
 
Bullitt, why not put your money in one of the L funds? I would think that L2020 or L2030 would give you the set up you are looking for and you can just not worry about it.
 
Bullitt,

Since no one has told you that once you get in this investment arena there is no way to quit - it's worse than cigaretts. Take a needed break and I'll wait for your return. My friends do let friends buy and hold - just keep on DCAing.
 
I don't look at trading / investing as a waste of time, but to each their own. I enjoy it.

Playing video games, being addicted to facebook, reading bad fiction, playing board games, etc. - now those are wastes of time.

I used to play a lot of poker but I gave it up, for the most part, several years ago when my son was like 5. I was making a small profit year after year, but I was spending over 1000 hours playing each year - and away from home. It started to feel like a waste of time.

At least I can play my investing games at home. And our family PC is right next to my PC so I spend lots of time with the family. :)

Good luck Bullitt! We'll see you on the fantasy sports circuit (another waste of time I enjoy). :D
 
I don't think Bullitt is leaving the zone. He just isn't going to swing trade.

And, being in the 35 - 40 year old range (my guess based on his post), he might be setting aside the 25% in G as a cash holding. I normally use three allocations. Kinda boring - but works for me. And, I don't have to stare at squiggly lines.
 
Nasa: You have to let your winners ride. When an account is rebalanced daily it doesn't let the winners ride. An account that is rebalanced yearly will do better than daily when your winners are winning. Essentially you want to rebalance at levels of overvaluation or undervaluation. (Then that's market timing isn't it? Yes. Nobody on planet Earth can predict the optimal time to rebalance on a consistent basis). The best bet is do wait until the allocation is off by a good bit. Second, the L Funds give too much love to the F Fund which is a POS. G Fund is as close to a free lunch as we'll ever get in TSP.

BT: 10-4.

tsptalk said:
I don't look at trading / investing as a waste of time, but to each their own. I enjoy it. I don't know who said it was a waste of time, I enjoy it too. I will continue to read investing/finance/market behavior books along with subscriptions to the WSJ and Economist. Many take on trading/investing before taking the time to educate themselves beforehand. I feel I should clarify myself here with the message board and blog sentence of mine. Blogs like ZH, which sensationalize every bad news headline as if it is the big one and tell you to just buy gold, are garbage. MB's that are for technical traders and are full of caveats are also garbage. Even in moderation, the prior two are wastes of time. I do not feel that way towards this MB or its blogs as this is one of the ONLY message boards related to finance that has enough diversity to attract many levels of investing.

Playing video games, being addicted to facebook, reading bad fiction, playing board games, etc. - now those are wastes of time. Bad fiction can be a bummer, but that's why you need to cut your losses early and move on. I stopped reading James Patterson after two novels. Agree with you on the other three.

Good luck Bullitt! We'll see you on the fantasy sports circuit (another waste of time I enjoy). :D Yep, me too. Thing is, at work or at friend/family gatherings, the conversations almost always lean towards sports. Fantasy sports can be a waste of time if taken too seriously, but they can help you engage someone in conversation when you're at a function. Besides, how many people talked about moving average crosses on Christmas Eve compared to how many debated the upcoming bowl games, BCS and Terrel Pryor?
Click to expand...

Boghie: 31 as stated on my profile. See above for my use of G over F.
 
Bullitt said:
Besides, how many people talked about moving average crosses on Christmas Eve compared to how many debated the upcoming bowl games, BCS and Terrel Pryor?
Click to expand...
I was wondering why I wasn't being invited to parties anymore. I thought everybody enjoyed a good futures contango / backwardation story?
 
I learned about backwardation and contango by messing around with UNG for a short while last year too! :nuts: Not sure I understand it even now, but staying away until I'm darn sure I do. :suspicious:
 
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