Bullitt's Account Talk

[robo]

Sounds like a good time to lay low. What's the worse they can do to you, turn you into an investor! Besides, we're right on the brink of a few buy signals...

Ha Ha.... I like that, me as an investor.... Ha Ha..... I don't have the stomach to be an investor like you and Birchtree. Well, I do invest in the G Fund, but I can't stand losing money, and that's why I could never buy and hold. That's what caused me to get the freeride. Sell or watch it go down, I sold! I would like to be an investor again, but the Market will not let me.


Bought most of the shares back in another account at around 10% cheaper for another roll at it. Losing that much money or getting the warning letter was a no-brainer. However, I will not do it again in that account. My Wife's account.... HA....

Take Care my friend....


Robo

 

[robo]

Sounds like a good time to lay low. What's the worse they can do to you, turn you into an investor! Besides, we're right on the brink of a few buy signals...

Looks like Henry is getting close to a new signal. I bought yesterday so I'll wait to add in my TSP account. Additional weakness and I might just add, but it looks like a gap up today. Will it be a gap and crap is the question? It's tough for folks to buy when we are selling off like this, but I will continue to buy the low 1300's when we are oversold. I will also sell again if we get back to the 1380's or above next week.


Take Care Brother!

 

[Bullitt]

Changed the allocation today to 40 C, 25 S, 35 I from 45 C, 20 S.

I'm looking for S Fund to lead the charge forward, so I guess I'm in the belief that we're in a correction from the rally that began in March. MCO hit oversold yesterday along with some nice bearish sentiment the past two days which we haven't seen since late March early April. We might not see those low 1300's again, so I'm just going to go for it. Kind of wish the market didn't gap up the way it did. I hate gaps.

 

[DCguy]

C$15.21-0.26 -8.15% S$19.02-0.32 -3.89% I$22.62-0.32 -8.64%
The biggest loser is the I fund and the I is currently down 8.64%.
S is only down 3.89% and the current price of S is $3.60 less than the current I price.
3% gain in S is only about the same as 2.5% gain in I, meaning 8.64% gain in I will be approximately equal to over 10% gain in S.
C is down 8.15%, but the current price is only $15.21.
but the C will do as well as the I because of the future rate raise and the dollar value increase.
I went 50/50 in C and I.

 

[luv2read]

C$15.21-0.26 -8.15% S$19.02-0.32 -3.89% I$22.62-0.32 -8.64%
The biggest loser is the I fund and the I is currently down 8.64%.
S is only down 3.89% and the current price of S is $3.60 less than the current I price.
3% gain in S is only about the same as 2.5% gain in I, meaning 8.64% gain in I will be approximately equal to over 10% gain in S.
C is down 8.15%, but the current price is only $15.21.
but the C will do as well as the I because of the future rate raise and the dollar value increase.
I went 50/50 in C and I.

That's how I figure things out - compare the 3 against each other over the short term and move accordingly.

 

[robo]

Changed the allocation today to 40 C, 25 S, 35 I from 45 C, 20 S.

I'm looking for S Fund to lead the charge forward, so I guess I'm in the belief that we're in a correction from the rally that began in March. MCO hit oversold yesterday along with some nice bearish sentiment the past two days which we haven't seen since late March early April. We might not see those low 1300's again, so I'm just going to go for it. Kind of wish the market didn't gap up the way it did. I hate gaps.

Yeah, I have plenty of gaps in my teeth, but it makes flossing easier. HA....

Still no alerts from Henry today.



Bob commented in May, "we continue to rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness in the S&P 500 index low 1300's. The S&P index registered three additional closes in the low 1300's range on April 11, 14, and 15 as it closed at 1332, 1328 and 1334 on those respective dates."

Well, we can now add 1335 on June 11. Will we go lower? Maybe, and I just might add.
Waiting for Henry to give us his new indicators going forward and I'll read over Sentiment Trader again after today's rally, if it holds into the close. Yesterday, I bet the CNBC Bears were calling for 1100 again or lower. It's going to be a tough summer thats for sure, but Bear Market rules still apply for me.

I'm currently up over 1.5k in my UYG trade from yesterday, but can't sell until tomorrow. If I do it's another freeride, but in my account. They do know that these accounts are linked so I'll have to hold until tomorrow. If we can hold this rally into the close and gap up tomorrow it's a trailing stop for sure.

I'll leave the rest for the Pigs and Investors. Yeah, just give me a nice close and another another gap up tomorrow! I'll make a offering today to the Bull and Bear gods...

Take Care my friend!

I think Birchtree will be out spreading some manure today if we can hold into the close....

The Bears could still win this battle today. We shall see... As I type this my 1.5k gain is now down to 900 dollars, but I can't sell. It's tougher when your watching 5k given back.

down - down -down....... I need some dippers!


Robo

 

[Bullitt]

IFT tomorrow COB. 35 C 30 S 35 I

My rationale for being in the C fund has changed over the past few months. I had originally intended to be in the 'safety' of larger stocks while riding out the storm that began nearly a year ago. At the time, I figured that the subprime would spill over and crush the smaller based companies while the larger companies would stay propped up by big money inflows. I was wrong mainly because the C Fund has too much exposure to banks. While I do have individual bank stocks in other accounts, I've completely had it with the banking industry. Some day the banks will bounce back, but nobody has a clue as to when and there are other opportunities out there.

Mid Caps have been the sweet spot of this market YTD and there aren't any midcaps in the C fund. I'm sure I can get good exposure to this bunch (along with smallcaps) with additional exposure to the S fund.

Sentiment as a whole is still circling the drain and isn't showing much signs of improvement. While sentiment can continue to get worse, it's a chance I'm going to take that it stabalizes. Maybe that capitulation day will come and maybe it won't. I just don't think we're going to ever get a green light so everyone can jump into the water at once.

With this being an election year, I'm pretty confident that there's going to be some legislation to curb the 'speculation' in the commodity markets. While I'm still not totally convinced it's speculators, I don't believe commodities were ever intended as investments. If laws are passed against the 'speculation', bears watch out!

On a side note, I'm looking for increased strength in the $USD and currently will be watching the ECB's reaction to inflation nest week for a chance to add to (or get out of) my current long position in the USD/EUR. (disclosure: I'm still learning the ropes in forex and using a practice trading account. Hey, an investor has gotta have some fun with trading!) I'm not a big fan of this nonsense weak dollar policy because it helps with trade and foreign money inflows. I was always taught that charity starts at home, so before we open the doors of DisneyWorld to foreign currency, I'd rather see a stronger dollar. (Not too strong, but stronger.)

So, with sentiment dropping, what I believe to be Oil's uptrend waning, a possible double bottom divergence in the McClellan, the RS of the mid caps, and that I've been looking for the opportunity to balance more into the S fund, I'll hope for the best and make the move.

 

[Steadygain]

IFT tomorrow COB. 35 C 30 S 35 I

Very well put - Excellent Review

If I didn't already give you 5 Stars - you got em now.

 

[robo]

CNBC.... Ha...

Robo


Friday, June 27, 2008

A Buy Signal From CNBC-TV
One of the best buy signals for the stock market has always been the image of a bear on the cover of a major magazine. The reliability of this signal is based upon the known fact that mass market journalists only report things everyone already knows. By the time the journalists find out about a correction in stocks and when they become so bold and so sanguine of the trend that they actually predict what the market will do, comes at the very end of the correction and they are exactly wrong on direction.

Example: It's 2002 and stocks are plunging. Maria Bartiromo on CNBC-TV says, at the closing bell, "Investors might as well sell stocks short!" Result: the very next day, the market makes its low and starts a five-year bull market romp to the upside.

Back to the future (today): Maria Bartiromo says, "You've got to sell this market, it's going lower!"

And, CNBC-TV's website posts this article: Shorting Stocks Could Be Way to Play This Market.

Of course, we'll need confirmation of this signal and the signal may be a day or two early, but when such a major buy signal is given by a television journalist with such a great track record, you just have to buy, buy, buy!

But, buyers were taking a holiday on Thursday, leaving the floor open to the short sellers, who had a field day in this post-uptick-rule era:

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[Birchtree]

Is the ISEE values lower than negative 50? I know they have to be at historical low levels.

 

[Bullitt]

I wish they were at 50. We hit 60 on 1/17 and 56 on 3/10. The Index has been bouncing around in the 70's since the month of June but it's one of those things that in an alleged 'bear market', most people should have bought downside protection months ago.

They've been capitulating slowly but surely. Freddie, Fannie, Ford, GM, LEH, BAC...

 

[Bullitt]

Market bottoming out or just another bear market rally?

Who cares, a Follow Thru Day registered at the close today. This one happened 9 days after the initial rally attempt and is usually a sign of good times ahead. (At the very least temporarily.)

Capitulation? Well, 30% of MER's shares outstanding swapped hands today, so that has to stand for something. Let's just keep hoping that the crooks are forced to continue unwinding their long oil/short financial plays in the days ahead. I see a few of them are saying that all Oil stocks are selling at a bargain, especially the majors. To me, that's a sure sign they're selling.

 

[Show-me]

Bargains everywhere.

 

[Corepuncher]

Market bottoming out or just another bear market rally?

Who cares, a Follow Thru Day registered at the close today. This one happened 9 days after the initial rally attempt and is usually a sign of good times ahead. (At the very least temporarily.)

Capitulation? Well, 30% of MER's shares outstanding swapped hands today, so that has to stand for something. Let's just keep hoping that the crooks are forced to continue unwinding their long oil/short financial plays in the days ahead. I see a few of them are saying that all Oil stocks are selling at a bargain, especially the majors. To me, that's a sure sign they're selling.

I'm going with the expectation that this secondary bounce will be much like the late Feb bounce, if you look at the charts. We'll hit the 50 SMA and bunker bust our ass back down.

 

[Steadygain]

A Follow Thru Day registered at the close today. This one happened 9 days after the initial rally attempt and is usually a sign of good times ahead. (At the very least temporarily.)

Several huge events should have been planned out better.

1) Most importantly - The gas stations should have been the major focus of "lower oil" prices from the get go.

The one who should have made sure this was in place - would be gone

2) The price of Oil should NOT have dropped as rapidly as it did.

Again the one most responsible - would no longer be employed

3) A gradual and progressive drop in Oil - coinciding with a gradual and progressive price in Gas - would have BOOSTED the general public sentiment - and that should have been KEY to the whole ordeal.

Despite what I would consider a more "flub up" operation - I would agree "a sign of good times ahead seems apparent".

Thanks for the input Bulitt - "nice post"

 

[Bullitt]

Several huge events should have been planned out better.

Yeah, you got that right. My strategy, it's more like...

Dr. Exchangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 'Bear'

 

[TerpTrader]

Bullitt...if ya don't mind me asking...what FOREX broker do you use to practice trading? And are you happy with it?

 

[Bullitt]

Terp,

I use FXCM. Still using the practice account every now and then when a get the time. I'm still looking to put together a TA method/system that is easy and works good for my style. FXCM will automatically set your stops when you enter a position and that's good because It's pretty easy to get wiped out if you don't use stops. Those short squeezes come on hard and fast. Like Ocean said, it's tough to hold those positions overnight when the trade is so volatile in the overnight sessions. FXCM does have good learning videos and seminars if you haven't read any books on Forex yet.

I do like the FXCM platform better than the Forex platform. Good chart tools, pretty neat platform all in all. I did some research before picking FXCM and apparently they've got pretty good customer service.

Maybe in the winter months I'll put a little more time into Forex, but for now, basing off my practice account, it looks like it would be a nightmare when filing taxes.

Good luck!

 

[TerpTrader]

Great Info!
Thanks a bunch!

i might get be getting into forex soon. I love the round-the-clock trading, etc.
Too many of my stocks suffered from manipulation (I can't stay away from OTC/Pinkies) so a purely technical trading market will be very refreshing.

Now I just gotta learn how to chart....DOH! :worried:

 

[Bullitt]

So you still don't believe in market manipulation by Hedge Funds? Allowing Pension and Hedge Funds to 'invest' (I don't know if that's such a word anymore) in commodities is madness.

From www.wsj.com

CFTC data show an eightfold jump in net buying from Feb. 19 to Feb. 26 by classes of investors that include pension funds and hedge funds. They also made many bets that would work only if cotton prices climbed sharply, according to options brokers and data from the operator of the cotton exchange, IntercontinentalExchange Inc., or ICE.

The CFTC can't track all commodities trading. A large part of it occurs off-exchange, as Wall Street firms execute private contracts called swaps with institutional investors, allowing those investors to bet on futures without directly trading them. The Wall Street firm then buys or sells futures or options itself, to offset the risk it has taken.

This system means hedge funds and their ilk can avoid exchange limits on the size of their bets. Wall Street firms, by contrast, are allowed to trade in large quantities because the CFTC regards them as commodity dealers.

----------------------------------
What a ridiculous market this has been. Financials up 8% today, down 8% tomorrow. Why doesn't the news just say financials were down yesterday because market players re-established short positions in anticipation for the naked short clause today?

Still riding the wave downwards without a care in all of my accounts via a DCA method. It's all about buying low right? Haha.

Oh well, Summertime and the living is easy. At least, it's supposed to be. Hope everyone is enjoying their's as much as I am and are not getting too caught up in the market world nonsense.

Dr. Exchangelove: Or How I learned to Stop Worrying and....