Bullitt's Account Talk

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Bullitt said:
I truly believe that a run to 1050-1100 SPX could happen by springtime. It's not going to be a straight shot and I expect chartists to get hammered along the way with whipsaws just as any chartist has been hammered in the gold sector since the November lows.
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You may be right, and I'd love to get on board, but a test of 740 first would make that move so much more meaningful. Otherwise it's just a temporary bear market rally with little support, imo.
 
Tom,

Thanks for your concerns. I came across a nice article a few days ago discussing the merits of buy and hold. I thought about posting it but decided not to stir the kettle - and now I can't remember where I read it. I'm holding my positions and continue to DCA all the way down that deep well and I'll do the same on the way back out of that same well. 2009 has the potential to be a very strong up year. I wish I could collect about ten more $9.00 C fund prices before we blast to the upside - I also need a few $11.00 and $12,00 C fund prices - we skipped them on the way down.
 
Birchtree said:
I came across a nice article a few days ago discussing the merits of buy and hold. I thought about posting it but decided not to stir the kettle ...
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It probably would have stirred the kettle, but that's not always a bad thing. It's still one of the great debates in the investment world.
 
I'd like to see the article on Buy and Hold because it's one heck of a debate. I recently read a debate about buying and holding index funds. Is it really buy and hold when the indexes are manipulated? For example, financials make up much less today than they did 2 years ago. How about once a stock gets added to an index, index funds are forced to pile in an buy it at artificial levels, skewing the whole pricing mechanism.
 
Gumby said:
Great place to go short this morning. Bought more SDS and waiting for reality to set in.:)
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Good luck. Like I said, I'm not expecting this to be an obvious exodus to higher ground. You are sure to get some good ST buy and sell opportunities. I just expect to see a lot of chasers similar to the run we've had in Gold since November where the technicals gave plenty of false or neutral signals but charged higher.

When it comes to ETF's, I'm about catching the bigger trends and am not afraid to make maybe 5-8 separate purchases to establish my position even if it means averaging down. TSP, forget about it. Trade the big trends or else use up your IFT limits in the first week. What can you do? ETF talk might be a good place for you to discuss your trades Gumby.
 
I made an IFT on Monday before noon time but didn't input it into the tracker today. I know it's late but at the end of the day, it's not that important to me.

I was 35% I fund, 35% C fund, and 30% S fund.
Now I am at 45C, 30S, 25I.

I lightened up on the I fund not so much for the doomish news (that's expected to be even worse) in the European banking industry, but I believe that the market is getting ready for a huge rally here. Again, I don't think we're ever going to get that bullish consensus because too many folks are busy looking at charts and will miss out on it's biggest moves- but that's good, we'll need more of those buy higher folks to jump on when things begin to appear 'safe'. I'm also thinking US equities are going to lead any kind of global recovery here. Decoupling was proven to be a myth and I don't think the I fund is much of a play on a weak dollar with all of this bad news about to come out with European banks. The difference between us and them is, we move like a rabbit and they move like a turtle when it comes to economic policy. We could very well see the dollar go parabolic like treasuries did in November.

Way, way too much rear view mirror looking lately. I can't believe any fund manager worth his salt is wasting his time still messing around shorting bank stocks. They know that the easy downside money has been made and instead are positioning themselves for some kind of uptick or recovery down the road. If they thought this stimulus wouldn't have any effect whatsoever, we'd be much lower than we are right now. This isn't the end of the bear market (which will go on as long as it has to go on for), but things are shaping up for a surprise cyclical bull here.
 
I hope we don't get this bullish move until after March is finished. I've paid my dues all the way down so now I'd like to use my dividends to collect on some of the inherent values that are available - other than that I'm waiting for the stampede. Bernanke was suggesting that perhaps the uptick rule should be repealed - it's always better late than never.
 
Looks like a lot has happened to say the least since I've been out.

Commodity stocks continue to outperform according to IBD- Just something to consider thinking about if this cyclical bull we've been hoping for ever decides to come around. If we don't get a move higher in the weeks ahead, the seasonality of things will make it very difficult. Wouldn't that be a ripper if the SEC banned naked shorting and modified the uptick rule. Ha! Just as retail land has begun to bask in the newly discovered the 3X bear funds, poof.

I changed my contribution allocations to more of an overweighting in US stocks because the reality just hasn't set in as far as Europe goes. We should hand it to the broker/dealer crooks from the biggest US institutions whom I personally wouldn't feel too comfortable spending an evening with, for dumping most of our toxic debt into somebody else's hands and making it someone else's problem.

I mentioned the role of demographics along with some market thoughts today in my blog.
 
There is starting to be a shortage of ammo. If the Obama people can't give enough away to the at risk folks and they are unhappy - they will come and when they do they will face the rath of the silent majority. You know what I mean. There is a national fear out in the hinterlands but there is also preparation. As a nation we will not stand by watching again as crime and riots descend into our communities.
 
Excellent blog. :D Sometimes I don't no where to comment on the blogs, here or over there. So I tned to do it over there. :confused:

CB
 
Birchtree said:
There is starting to be a shortage of ammo. If the Obama people can't give enough away to the at risk folks and they are unhappy - they will come and when they do they will face the rath of the silent majority. You know what I mean. There is a national fear out in the hinterlands but there is also preparation. As a nation we will not stand by watching again as crime and riots descend into our communities.
Click to expand...
Glenn Beck web site

http://the912project.com/
 
You know, if you were to lighten up and go to cash you would be performing a great humanitarian favor - you would probably save many chicletts from drowning in the pool.
 
Ha. Don't worry Birch, I'll let you know when I'm selling some. The problem is, I think this rally still has further to go. I'm probably not the only looking for things to go higher though seeing that 20% of the voters on one particular poll voted for this rally to take us over 900. We're now over 900.

Birch this must be the kind of rally a bull dreams of. I mean, this melt up has been one of your predictions for about a year now. I'll bet that even the most bearish ones talking about how these green shoots are a bust are 'closet rally chasers'.
 
The recent rally has tipped my asset allocation away from it's target of 45C, 30S, 25I so I made an IFT today solely for rebalancing act purposes. I figured it's a good time to sell some 'winners' and buy some 'losers'.

No need to log this in the tracker since the tracker does not deviate from target allocations.
 
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