Bullitt's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

Don't buy the dips Bullitt, this is a Bear Market!

The Bears will keep shorting on the way up and the Bulls will keep buying the dips at some point we will get a winner.

Ha. Yeah, I usually try to buy on the 'drops'. I'm sure the headlines and crooks tonight will be calling this a bogus short covering rally but what rally has ever been ignited without short covering? At what point do the deep pocket bears say 'enough is enough' and begin to lighten up on their bearish positions?

Good setup today in the banking sector following the gap down yesterday.

Meredith Whitney was dead wrong today on her GS and LEH calls.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNAdranrdS4k

 

[Show-me]

Abby J. Cohen

You guys see the WSJ today. Abby Cohen got shuffled to the side lines by GS. They did it in Dec. and did not release it to the media on purpose. Her '07 call missed pretty good and her '08 call was 1675.

New guy that she hired 4 years ago took over and is calling 1160 short term and 1375 for the end game. In a phone interview she is towing the line and agreed with his assessment.

I think secretly she is .................. Birchtree. LOL :blink::laugh:

 

[Bullitt]

Yeah, I saw that. She is a bit overly bullish for an professional analyst. She wasn't too good at predicting when it would rain. 1675 in 2008 isn't going to happen. She also called tech a strong buy in 2001. Incredible she lasted this long.

FWIW, GS economists now calling for a mild recession with target of 1380 on S&P 500, partially aided by the tax rebates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSC6nHYHr.q0

 

[Bullitt]

Looks Tuesday was yet another 90% up day. Somebody is going to win this tug o war sooner or later.
--------------
An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.

The bottom line? Tuesday's "Double Nine-to-One" signal may not prove to be as reliable a signal as it has in the past. But the bulls can nevertheless console themselves that the burden of proof has shifted so that it's now the bears poking holes in the bullish argument rather than the other way around.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...4460-AC40-51E2BA8D864B}&siteid=nwhnwhnr&lsn=3

 

[Bullitt]

Just noticed that XAU, USO, SLV and GLD got pounded again today. Could only mean one thing IMO and that being the Smart Money is rotating out of hard assets and back into equities. I mustered up enough courage to tighten up and add to my personal account before COB on Monday.

SPX keeps getting closer and closer to that 50DMA. The rally is still intact, I'm just waiting for that ever elusive follow thru day.

 

[robo]

Bullitt,

They need to hold 1270.

I can't wait to get my TSP money into a Brokerage account so I can profit from these wild swings.

UYG is up 12% from the panic sell-off this morning. It's tough to buy when the blood is running, but someone is buying and selling UYG besides me.

I don't even like to hold positions over a couple of hours these days. UYG is almost even,
crazy!!!

Can they hold 1270? We shall see! I hope Henry's call was a good one.

Bullitt,

UYG is now up 37% from the gap down Monday morning and up 10.53% today. Got Financials? I know you do my friend!

The Bears will have another chance next week to get it back. Crazy market! I hope Birchtree is staying in the pasture this weekend and not out in the threads spreading around too much manure.

The Battle will continue next week. I'm sure plenty of Bears piled on additional puts and shorts today. We will probably get more of the same next week. Even Jason might go 100% long soon.

The retail investor will fight this all the way up to at least 1400 or higher before they are ready to buy. Should keep the fuel in place for awhile. Down, up, down, up and then up, up, up..... and then back down! Take Care!

 

[robo]

Bullitt,

It's to late! Birch is already out grazing in the threads. Folks are really going to get ticked off when we break-thru 1400 and he keeps spreading that sweet manure around. OH BOY! You better PM him….

I liked it better when all these TA's were very bearish. I'm getting too many buy signals today. Still some shorting, and others in cash so we should be ok for the next leg up. Some of the Top Timers even turned Bullish and gave buy signals. We don’t want to many Bears tuning too quickly. We need a few more big squeeze’s first. Keep-em shorting and fighting the Fed. I didn’t ride this whole thing down, but I’m sure going to try and ride most of the upside. Staying on the train for now.

On the other hand, the bears could still be in control. Let the battle continue next week! Maybe more Big rallies and sell-offs coming.

 

[Bullitt]

It's to late! Birch is already out grazing in the threads. OH BOY! You better PM him….

I liked it better when all these TA's were very bearish. Keep-em shorting and fighting the Fed. I didn’t ride this whole thing down, but I’m sure going to try and ride most of the upside. Staying on the train for now.

Maybe more Big rallies and sell-offs coming.

Robo, when he's in the zone, it's best for me not to bother him. Looks like he ingested some ex-lax while he was away and has plenty more where that came from.

I saw a typical news article about the recent run up being caused by short covering. Moot point. What rally has ever begun without a short squeeze? I have a good feeling that there continues to be a strong retail presence in the commodities/options arena. Somebody told me once that the futures arena is a trader's playground. I consider that the understatement of the year right there.

How about the charts of SLV and GLD gapping right down thru the 50 DMA today? Oil produced an oscillator sell signal on Monday. XAU is falling apart and the USD continues to base for a move above the 50 DMA. The big boys are making adjustments to their hedges. Maybe instead of Long Commodities/Short SPX, the shift is in place to Short Commodities/Long SPX. Those guys are too smart to fight the Fed, especially after LEH coming up with that clutch hit during their earnings call.

I'm expecting a few more of these market moves in the ST, but the case for the long side is ever gaining momentum. Don't fight the Fed in an election year. Just like Miles told Joel in Risky Business, "Sometimes you've just gotta say....".

 

[Birchtree]

According to our friend (a bullish friend at that) Henry there is enough global dough around to run the next bull leg for several years. He says the most ever in cash equivalents.

 

[Birchtree]

We had positive plurality today for volume and issues - second largest total volume day in many months.

 

[Bullitt]

Thursday was an official Follow Thru Day confirmation in the DJIA. I know we've had a few before that fizzled out shortly after, but the point is that sooner or later somebody is going to win this tug o war, and the upside currently has the edge.

 

[robo]

Bullitt,


OH BOY! Could it be? Tim Wood not saying, "you have been warned."

Tim calling poor Ben "Daddy". Do I sense some sarcasm from a ticked-off Bear.

The Bears are still in control, but short-term are feeling the heat. Tim still could be correct longer-term, but the next few weeks the pressure is on!


DON'T FIGHT FED, and Ben ( Daddy ) is pulling some real rabbits out of his ass... I don't care how we hit bottom, Engineered or not! Just give me a nice 5% to 7% rally for now.

The "line in the sand" is being looked over hard even by the newsletter folks this weekend. How many Top Timers will turn this weekend and give buys. We shall see!


From Tim Wood:

This last week Daddy also made available $30 billion to JP Morgan for the bailout/buyout of Bear Stearns. As a result, there has been what I term an "engineered" double bottom by these unprecedented events. The question now is, "Will this bottom hold and have we seen the 4-year cycle low?"


http://www.safehaven.com/article-9752.htm

 

[Bullitt]

Looks like the retail investors got a little spooked today with the Oil inventories and the fact that the major indicies peeked their head above the 50DMA last week. Big money hasn't done too much rocking of the boat since that run that went from 3/18-3/20.

I was hoping the USD was showing signs of realistic strength, but it looks like that strength was nothing but a bounce in a major downtrend. I'm still considering a USD ETF over any commodity ETF's at this point in the game. You don't see any news articles pumping that idea, and that's why I like it so much. Instead we're plagued with reasons to buy gold at all time highs day in and day out. I saw an article, and I wish I could find it again, which claims we are going look back on this commodity bubble and compare it to the technology bubble of the 2000 era soon enough.

Dow Transports continue leading the way to new highs and remains above the 200DMA. Neither the DJIA or transports have confirmed the next leg down into a bear market. The rally that began on 3/20 remains intact and I remain confident that some kind of bottom in equities has been forming since 1/22.

 

[Bullitt]

Barron's this week attempts to explain the rationale behind the Commodity Boom.

"...commodities in general were fully valued in terms of the fundamentals as of early September 2007. Based on the 24-commodity S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, that would mean about a 30% collapse from present levels. But, he adds, "Given the tendency for prices to overshoot, commodity values could be cut in half before they stabilize."

www.barrons.com

 

[Bullitt]

I'm not a fan of technicals but commodities have been largely driven by TA traders. Take note that DBA and GLD gapped right thru support levels this morning. USO is hanging by a string. We'll see what transpires at the close.

 

[Bullitt]

DBA and GLD gapped right thru support levels this morning.

But DBA managed to fight it's way back. Still some technical signs of caution for GLD and DBA though as they both remain below the 50DMA.

Now, if only the DJIA could take out the 12740 level...

 

[Bullitt]

Christopher Cox, head of SEC, confirmed the rumors that ensued with BSC's collapse was nothing more than panic during Thursday's Senate Banking hearing.

Despite the run on the bank to which Bear Stearns was subjected, its customers were fully protected... At no time during the week of March 10th through the 17th were any of the customers of the Bear Stearns' broker-dealers at risk of losing their cash or their securities.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080407.htm

Money Fund assets continue to increase which isn't necessarily a bad thing considering how the market has fared since 1/22/08. I don't hear too many mega bears or gold bugs mention this simple statistic probably for their fear that a flood of money back into equities would be crushing to their bearish positions. We all know how many analysts were pumping tech stocks right near the peak. When I look at any particular commodity chart, I can only think of the tech bubble and I honestly don't know anything about TA.

I hear and read often about a capitulative bottom before we can begin the next bullish leg. I wouldn't count on it. We'll only know what day was the 'capitulation' day when the market marches on to new highs. Many professionals believe that we've already witnessed a capitulative bottom/double bottom. This commodity bubble could blow tomorrow or it could keep going on for a looonnngg time.

Is the smart money buying? Who knows? The must not be selling, otherwise the market would have broken the lows. This market has been moved almost entirely by options traders for a few months now. Is it a time to be buying? I know for sure that the so-called dumb money isn't convinced the market is in a bottoming process.

Banks earnings, commodities bubble, inflation-deflation-recession-stagflation, market crash, S&P 500 next stop 966- all make the bad news not seem quite as bad. The Wall of Worry.

 

[Bullitt]

The Great Humiliator doesn't care about the headlines. I've been reading Ken since 2001.

I'm getting a lot of hate e-mail these days. This onslaught is not entirely a bad thing. It reassures me that my bet against the crowd is a wise one. I'm bullish and have been steadily since the July 8, 2002 issue.

On Mar. 13 Goldman Sachs demoted market strategist Abby Cohen for having been bullish too long. That day marked the bottom of the back half of what I think is a double-bottom whose first bottom was in January. I see Goldman's move as bullish. That once famous market timer Joe Granville materialized out of nowhere saying that we are beginning a bad bear market. I'd bet against Joe any time. Gloomy people are saying that we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. They said the same thing in 1998. Bullish!

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2008/0421/242.html

 

[robo]

Bullitt,


UYG payday, trailing stop in now. Never let a winner turn into a loser. I was one day early for the big payday, but this one is looking ok.

The Boyz are putting on big pressure so all the retail shorts with tight stops will give the crooks another payday. It never ends for them, payday, after payday, after payday. The weak Bulls will be next after they are done with the little bears. I hope they run it up and thru 1360 so we can make some real money. Looking to sell some soon, UYG up over 6% now.

Take Care!

 

[Bullitt]

Looking to sell some soon, UYG up over 6% now.

UYG still running long. I must admit, I was a little worried this week with JPM, MER and C reporting but even a bull needs a wall of worry to climb.

Glad we didn't listen to Meredith, otherwise we'd have missed out on so big financial moves this week. Can't say we we're warned. I mean, didn't someone tell us in mid March that there's more risk being out of the market than in at this point?

Good week, but still no high fives over here. Like Patraeus says, the champagne bottle is still in the back of the refridgerator.

Dow 13K by 4/30?