Bullitt's Account Talk

Robo,
I found your post and the trader's narrative compelling. Thank you.


Airlift,

I posted some other comments about Sentiment that I thought you might also enjoy reading. I didn't want to post them here in Bullitt's thread.


"Anecdotal evidence like magazine covers or the level of CNBC cheerleading can be helpful at times, but I think folks try to read something into everything. True sentiment extremes are relatively rare events."

Jason



http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=155303#post155303
 
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Some thoughts on the current Oil Bubble.

Oil Price Bubble?

Supply is up, demand is down, yet the price is soaring. Here's why.

- Last week, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson blamed a third of the recent run up in oil prices on the weak dollar, another third on geopolitical uncertainty, and the rest on market speculation.
- Since September 2003, the total number of open crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364 percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum rose by just 8.2 percent. "So the futures and options market has become more important than the physical supplies in driving the price," concludes Evans. "We are seeing investment flows into the oil market that don't have anything to do with the demand and supply of oil."
- Whenever you begin to hear market gurus decree that "this time it's different," as we did during the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble, that's a sure sign of danger in the market. Naturally, proponents of the peak oil theory claim that the recent run up in prices is evidence that the end is nigh.

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html

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Really, does anybody not want this bubble to pop? As with any bubble, they can go on and on and on, steamrolling short sellers on the stampede upwards who stand in it's way.
 
We may have a speculative bubble but with the news that production can not be sustained at these levels will support the current price. WSJ reported that at the current rate of decline in production Mexico will not be able to export oil in seven year. They are our #3 importer of oil after Canada and Saudi Arabia.

Canadian oil sands are looking better every day.
 
Ah you guys out East.

Yeah oil shale-but you need a lot of water to process it and it pollutes ground water.
Now THAT should be fun. Range wars over water. Big "Ag" against Big Oil.
We already see what corn used for Ethanol has done to the price of your rib-eye steak at COSTCO.

I'm holding out for my own solution-nuclear powered SUV hybrids.
 
The process I has seen for shale was to super heat it in a inert gas envelope to cook out the oil without burning it. Not feasible at current market price but possible.
 
You know what Paladin, I actually miss Rick Santelli and Brian 'the brain' Faber's commentaries. They are two incredibly intelligent guys that have it figured out, but nobody listens to them because they don't provide stock picks. They do a little more than just sit there and deliver the company line.

Commentary: Monday may have marked end of the correction

I turn first to investment newsletter sentiment. A contrarian analysis of that data supports the notion that Monday was the end of the correction, since in recent sessions enough editors have turned bearish -- in effect throwing in the towel.

Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of several dozen short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. At minus 22.5%, the HSNSI is even lower than it was at the beginning of last week, when I had already concluded that the market was close to a bottom

Writing before the close on Tuesday, Russell wrote that, at Monday's close, "The market was severely oversold. But what interested me was that the market was not only oversold -- but it was severely oversold in the face of a flagrant non-confirmation on the part of the Transports. This unusually bullish combination provided the basis for a violent turnaround. In fact, it could turn out to be more than 'just a turnaround.' Ideally, what I'd like to see now is a 90% day on the upside. If that were to occur, we could be seeing a key reversal -- with the stock market perhaps having discounted the worst that can be seen ahead."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-96C2-472D-BA1E-C8877BF40609}&dist=TNMostRead

Richard, looks like you got your 90% up day. Also, I'm planning for additional rate cuts on the horizon. Attack, attack, attack.

Bullitt,

This a daily check for me my friend! Rick Santelli videos...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=685610541&play=1
 
Ah you guys out East.

Yeah oil shale-but you need a lot of water to process it and it pollutes ground water.
Now THAT should be fun. Range wars over water. Big "Ag" against Big Oil.
We already see what corn used for Ethanol has done to the price of your rib-eye steak at COSTCO.

I'm holding out for my own solution-nuclear powered SUV hybrids.

I'm not saying it is a good idea, just stating that it will be the next big thing when the liquid oil field stop producing. I have been saying all along that ethanol was a graft, but nobody listens to me. :rolleyes:
 
I'm not saying it is a good idea, but nobody listens to me. :rolleyes:

Show-Me, you've got more listeners than you think.

Robo, good times. Unfortunately the first one I clicked on had Liesman's mug in it.

Tempest, Yes, I agree with you and I think that the article I posted earlier in the Oil Sands thread does as well. Everybody knows that oil is a long term idea according to conventional wisdom. However.....

My proximity to the Great Lakes allows me to take for granted the supply of fresh water in the world. Where I live, we have never had water shortages even during the driest of summers. I'm sure some of you out in the midwest know more about drought than I do. With that said, I think a great long term play along the lines of supply and demand is Water. There are a few water infrastructure based stocks, ETF's and Mutuals in the universe today but I can see this trend increasing, especially if everything they say about global warming is true.

A riddle I heard a while back in which all this talk of ethanol and oil sands made me remember. Anyone, anyone?

What do you call two wharves?
 
Bullitt,

They need to hold 1270.

I can't wait to get my TSP money into a Brokerage account so I can profit from these wild swings.

UYG is up 12% from the panic sell-off this morning. It's tough to buy when the blood is running, but someone is buying and selling UYG besides me.

I don't even like to hold positions over a couple of hours these days. UYG is almost even,
crazy!!!

Can they hold 1270? We shall see! I hope Henry's call was a good one.
 
Keep killin' em Robo. This is like the scene in Black Hawk Down when Michael Durant's bird crashed and the Delta sniper team volunteered to rappel down and attempt a rescue. Robo, you're like one of those snipers right now.

Nobody has a clue as to what the heck is going to happen next and we haven't even hit panic mode. Morningstar has placed every major bank and brokerage under review. Basically, it's their version of CYA. I just keep thinking to myself, what if that was me or one of my family members who had to watch their entire BSC retirement $$$ go 'poof', in a matter of weeks while sitting there helplessly. Nobody saw this coming. This BSC collapse should take down a few Hedge Funds and Institutional traders as well. Somebody was buying BSC stock on Friday.

Hold the line!
 
Keep killin' em Robo. This is like the scene in Black Hawk Down when Michael Durant's bird crashed and the Delta sniper team volunteered to rappel down and attempt a rescue. Robo, you're like one of those snipers right now.

Nobody has a clue as to what the heck is going to happen next and we haven't even hit panic mode. Morningstar has placed every major bank and brokerage under review. Basically, it's their version of CYA. I just keep thinking to myself, what if that was me or one of my family members who had to watch their entire BSC retirement $$$ go 'poof', in a matter of weeks while sitting there helplessly. Nobody saw this coming. This BSC collapse should take down a few Hedge Funds and Institutional traders as well. Somebody was buying BSC stock on Friday.

Hold the line!


Yeah, you buy Friday at 30.00, and now, still to be determined price.... How would you like to work there and have your 401k in that company? Criminal!!!!


Down the market goes again! I'm done trading; no more settled funds for now for a few days. Might have to open a Rydex or ProFund account and soon for this market. Waiting for settled funds is costing me money. Well, in some cases saving me money! LOL
 
Bullitt,

UYG currently up 25% form the gap down yesterday... I should have just put on a trailing stop and let-her-run.....


Still made some nice pocket change, but left a bunch of money on the table again.

Currently up 12.33% today. Don't buy the dips Bullitt, this is a Bear Market! Looking for another dip to buy....When my Funds settle.

The Bears will keep shorting on the way up and the Bulls will keep buying the dips at some point we will get a winner. For now this remains a Trader's Market......


I have NO IDEA what will happen the next couple of days, but I'm still palying from the long-side for now.
 
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