Bull Trepidation

Dip buyers are finally starting to show their wariness of the stock market as an initial rally attempt at the open fizzled after the first hour of trade. The afternoon session also saw a modest attempt to take prices higher, but it too fell apart with modest losses posted by the major averages at the close.

One sector did well however, and that was energy, which saw decent gains the whole day. Oil was a big factor as crude rose close to 2% on the day, with a barrel of oil closing at $99.59 per barrel.

One economic data point of note was April new home sales, which increased to 323,000 units from 301,000 in March.

Let's go to the charts:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO remained steady today, with both remaining in a sell condition.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL both improved a bit, but also remain in a sell condition.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ both dropped back down into a buy condition.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ ebbed a bit lower today and remains on a sell.

So 5 of 7 signals remain on sells, which keeps the system in a sell condition.

Nothing happened today to change my outlook. The Seven Sentinels are still pointing to lower prices and I still expect this sell signal to last a bit longer than the few that were achieved during the long bull run from last September. I'm not looking for anything dramatic, but the market could potentially fall about 10% from its peak before we bottom. That's probably the worst case scenario.
 
The CBOE put to call ratio may be signaling the end of this minor stock market pullback - anything above 1.15 and the market has turned at least the last four times.
 
We'll continue to have our moves back up, even if we're trending down, but my bet is that we have some time yet before the intermediate term trend is reestablished to the upside. You can't wait a few more weeks? Maybe mid to late June or so? How else can the boyz reload if you don't give em' time? ;)

By the way, your absence in spite of my bearish view of late has been duly noted. It's one of my indicators now. :cheesy:

Rally on tap, just for you Birch. :D

Birchtree;bt3259 said:
The CBOE put to call ratio may be signaling the end of this minor stock market pullback - anything above 1.15 and the market has turned at least the last four times.
 
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