Bull Pen - June 2006

[nnuut]

Yes, the Oily War in getting in our way big time. Getting slicker every day, I'm tempted to bail to the "G" just to hide from this Oil problem, you ain't seen nnuutin' yet!:nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Have you ever heard of this before? But does it work?

The Down Friday/Down Monday Warning - Arm Yourself >>DOWN FRIDAY/DOWN MONDAY WARNINGOne simple way to get a quick reading on which way the market may be heading is to keep track of the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Fridays and the following Mondays. Friday is the day that professional traders square positions before the weekend. If they are nervous they sell more. Upon returning from the weekend if their outlook has not improved they sell more.
This combination of a down Friday followed by a down Monday is often a warning sign that the stock market is headed lower. You will also notice in the table below that bear market years, such as 2000, 2001 and 2002, have a greater number of Down Fridays/Down Mondays.
Over the past ten years Down Fridays/Down Mondays have preceded drops in the Dow over the next six months of –7.6% on average. The average time it took for these declines to occur was 68 days. When you see a Down Friday/Down Monday you may want to steer clear of the stock market until it pulls back some or take some cash out if you are going to need it over the next several months.

http://aol.hirschorg.com/aol_splash.asp

 

[FundSurfer]

You will also notice in the table below that bear market years, such as 2000, 2001 and 2002, have a greater number of Down Fridays/Down Mondays.

Just a question, but wouldn't you expect more down days overall in a bear market year? Therefore your odds of any combination of days being negative would be increased over a bull market year.

 

[nnuut]

Exactly, isn't that one thing it will indicate?

 

[FundSurfer]

Exactly, isn't that one thing it will indicate?

OK, follow me here. Wouldn't your chances of having down Monday followed by down Tuesday be increased in a bear market year versus a bull market year? or a Wednesday/Thursday combination? Just the fact that you have already called it a bear market year means more down days than up days versus a bull market year?

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

There may be something to this, but this table is useless.

Is the average loss, during the average following time period occurring after EACH down Mon/Fri ?

Obviously it can't, unless 2000 had 1,200 days in it. Even if we say 100 days in 2000 was an average, some could be a lot less, try to come up with 12 weekly events in 52 weeks that can average a 100 day(14 week) period.

How about 2002? 18 weekly events that can average 121 days (17 weeks each) in duration????

Do we wait for several down Mon/Fri events? If so, how many? The numbers for 2000/01/02 loosely correlate to the loss for the year.

Try to follow the placement of the asterisks on the table with their explanation at the bottom. If it makes any sense,then I'll submit myself as the moron. Maybe I'm missing something.

PS- Nnutt, I'm not shooting the messenger!

 

[nnuut]

They shoot horses don't they? We all know I'm a "sick Puppy". I ran across this thing and thought it was interesting, but couldn''t think of a way to use it with the information supplied. Looks like I'm not the only one!!!:notrust:

 

[Griffin]

I'm not seeing the drop I have been expecting. This slow rollover does not appear to be fueled by the economic slowdown/recession fears that I expected. The risk seems relatively low, so I am going to stick my money back into the market, today and try to get ahead of the crowd. I'm expecting good numbers for the inflation next week, so there is a little urgency.

 

[Wheels]

Just a question, but wouldn't you expect more down days overall in a bear market year? Therefore your odds of any combination of days being negative would be increased over a bull market year.

Exactly!!! That's why this info doesn't carry a lot of weight. JMO

Dave
<><

 

[Griffin]

A trend is developing with the dollar to the positive and S&P RSI is steadily gaining strength. I am in the C-Fund currently, however, I use the S&P as my benchmark, doesn't mean I am going to stick around, if the S starts really perkin up.

I also think we are at the start of a upward move over the intermediate and long term. Depending on how the inflation numbers come in I will probably drop to the G either tomorrow or Wednesday, simply because you can almost always count on options expiration week to end low (85% failure rate on options, I heard that somewhere).

I'm expecting the S&P to top at about 1295. Then come back down a tad to form the bottom of a new rising wedge channel.

 

[Griffin]

Lessons learned from the bull run that was January to May - the buy and holders (Aslan, Namor, etc..) did better then the timers.

We have a bunch of wedges developing and I am of the opinion that these will close this week, with options expiration forming the last bottom. I am expecting (hoping) that tomorrow will carry the momentum through to the highs on the wedges and hold there. I intend to dump tomorrow.

If we then get the usual options expiration sell off, Friday (or soon there after will be the buy in). I expect these wedges to break to the up side. Forming a nice cup, which of course leads to an opportunity to play the handle. But other then a few plays during future options expiration weeks, a buy and hold strategy would be the way to play it.

That is the my long range plan - and I intend to play the S-Fund all the way. I highly doubt we will see a new high for the year, but the DWCP has plenty of room for big profits as we struggle to get there.

 

[Birchtree]

It's always better to buy on the cheap and I have my share - but if we get a heavy volume run tomorrow I'll be buying on the upside - two weeks from now those prices will look cheap - I think this market is up to something and will catch most players at the beach. I distinctly remember the move up in August 1982 - that was a screamer and everyone was napping. I was shaking the piggy bank to stay invested and ended up making $300,000 in ten months - and eventually gave 50% back in the next 18 months. That's what is known as the college of hard knocks.

 

[Griffin]

I was shaking the piggy bank to stay invested and ended up making $300,000 in ten months - and eventually gave 50% back in the next 18 months. That's what is known as the college of hard knocks.

Birch, why don't you ever take the opportunity to avoid some losses? If you backed out of the market just a couple days a year when support is broken on the big slides you could save yourself quite a bit of cake.

Anyway CPI data is out and the core came in LOWER so get ready for a nice ride.

Apparantly, the US economy is strong, it appears to be able to weather any storm, and inflation now is starting to look like it is under control.

The Bull is back

 

[Spaf]

Griff,
I don't disagree with what U said. But consider the consequences! If "Birch" the permibull of the board made a transfer to the G-fund. The board would panic and everone would run to the "End of the World" thread. So long as the permibull keeps the wall flowers watered, we all have hope. MHO.....

 

[Griffin]

long as the permibull keeps the wall flowers watered, we all have hope. MHO.....

Hope springs eternal

Isn't that why PT Barnum said "a sucker is born every minute" ?

 

[Birchtree]

Gents,

Back in 1982 the short term capital gains tax was 50% - I decided to let things ride while I was learning the ropes and of course I received a lesson I didn't anticipate. But it all adds to experience and it has taken a period of time to eat those tax loss carryforwards. It's hard on the ego to take a loss but there is always a blessing for the future. Sometimes you get caught on the wrong side with a blind side slap and all you can do is sell - regardless. An investing strategy is a culmination of trial and error.

 

[Griffin]

With so much movement today, I spent lunch doing the money flow -

26 moves (a new record?)

67.31% G
8.85% F
4.35% C
5.85% S
13.65% I

Which is about 3/4 capital preservation to 1/4 stocks.

If the market follows suit, we could be looking at one hell of a sell off......hopefull not until tomorrow :blink:

I attribute this to options expiration. The next couple of days should be interesting as the corporate machines try to gobble up every bit of stock while seller's cash out their shorts.

The dollar dropped significantly with both the PPI and CPI data release - weakening dollar? I don't think so...that's a flood of capital deployment.

Agree or disagree? I would really like to get some opinions on this -

 

[Wheels]

Agree or disagree? I would really like to get some opinions on this -

I'm kind of disappointed that the cap pres number was so high, I tend to like being the contrarian. However it's a pretty small sampling.

I believe the dollar is probably headed lower but I think it will bounce the next day or two, especially with the BOJ coming out so dovish.

Dave
<><

 

[tsptalk]

Anyway CPI data is out and the core came in LOWER so get ready for a nice ride.

Apparantly, the US economy is strong, it appears to be able to weather any storm, and inflation now is starting to look like it is under control.

The Bull is back

I tend to agree. What's really nice is that the market is rallying on good news. I like when it does what it is supposed to; rally on good news, sell off on bad. That's not always the case and that can really mess with our heads.

 

[MADDOG]

griff;

i two watch daily movements;
right now i'm tracking 50 of us;
and where we all are, on any given day

i like numbers
and yep the i fund & g fund pretty much swapped today;

G FUND F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
TOTAL 52.88% 3.30% 9.74% 7.20% 28.58%

MADDOG