Bquat's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

Judging by these charts, I should have exited my position around the 18th of October.

Thanks for the charts B!

 

[Mcqlives]

We may be at a bounce point...but I think more pain is coming. If the C fund doesn't find a floor here then around 2008-2014 is in play. Of course, all that is dependent on election results and how much pricing in the computers have done depending on the winner.

 

[Bquat]

Post election day 1 and what's next?

 

[FogSailing]

No idea BQ. Thanks for the charts BTW. I'll need ITs help to figure this one out. Sitting tight until "IT SPEAKS!" Looks like we're headed towards highs but another part of me says the action was just to burn the shorts. Just don't know.

FS

 

[Bquat]

Doji top? I haven't redrawn my channels yet waiting for the post election effect to come down. Charts:

 

[Bquat]

VIX-CBOE with a white channel to ignore some election events:

 

[Bquat]

I can't figure out the midterm but drew anyway::cheesy:

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks for the charts!!!

 

[Bquat]

Will the Trump rally continue? What do you think? SPX is embedded to the upside but in a rising wedge and AGG had a Doji and breaking out from being embedded to the down side:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm staying in until I start to see a breakdown via consolidation. That means at least an intraday touch of 20 EMA on a daily chart (bottom of daily wick). That said i'll probably stay in only a few more days past that point. I've most often exited too early, going against my strategy.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[Bquat]

Couple of December charts just prior to market open. F Fund has broken out of being embedded and on a double bottom. S Fund is close to breaking out of being embedded but will it. News seems to be out waying charts, so we'll see:

 

[Bquat]

December 1st market close. Stocks falling out of being embedded on my charts. So I draw you can comment:

 

[FogSailing]

The timing for things to turn around in the markets always amazes me. The 100% retrace in bonds is an example where you know that bonds are going to bounce because all the technicals show that the conditions are ripe...but the markets seem to contain a type of stored energy that won't allow the technical conditions to control them until all that that momentum has been expended. And because markets have skyrocketed at a steep trajectory in different directions (stocks v bonds), I think it is going to take markets longer to turn around this month.

HOLD: Just checked the markets....somethings happening...bonds are actually bouncing...will wait till Monday to make the change..

FS

 

[Tsunami]

HOLD: Just checked the markets....somethings happening...bonds are actually bouncing...will wait till Monday to make the change..
FS

Bonds are oversold and due for a "sharp snapback rally"...
McClellan Oscillator for Corporate Bonds - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
But bonds are marching to a different tune than stocks, which I think need more consolidation and a little more downside after today's small bounce. I'm looking for (hoping for) a drop into the 2160's next week to get back in, and that would actually be much healthier and more bullish for 2017.

I was looking at my YTD performance last night. Wow, call me the comeback kid. Per the Tracker, at the end of June: TSP Talk AutoTracker
I was #1680 out of 1681 at -7.65%. Now, as of 12/1/16 I’m shown as #643 of 1246 at +5.94%, a gain of 13.59%.
In my actual for reelz TSP account, at the end of June I was at -2.60% on 6/30 (equivalent to #1635)…I finally I said enough is enough and started following my system on 7/22/16, and now I’m at +9.2% (equivalent to #408 in the tracker), a gain of 11.8%, and I wonder if that’s among the best performers for the period since 6/30. Yay me!

Oh, and after today's plunge in the UE rate to 4.6%, the bull/bear market indicator that uses a 12-month moving average of the UE rate and the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 price is solidly in bull market mode. No worries for 2017 at this point.

And in other news, I think Avi Gilbert's predictions for gold are coming true and gold has hit a bottom...good time to buy things like GDX and even NUGT or JNUG perhaps, no promises...

This is painful to say, but go Huskies! A UW win this evening over the Buffs should put my Cougs into the Holiday Bowl.

 

[Bquat]

Here's the charts. Left the long term the same and changed the midterms in stocks to reflect most of the Trump rally. Can bonds embed and make it back to their midterm? Not if money continues into stocks: Comment you can.

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm a little concerned with the rising wedge (like Tom referenced yesterday) but think any give-back will be short lived. Come on Santa Rally!!!

 

[Bquat]

Both stocks and bonds did not like the rate hikes announcement. With follow through tomorrow anything embedded or trying to embed will drop down into an over bought condition. So tomorrow get a pot of coffee on and watch if this was an overreaction or if profit taking takes hold:

 

[Bquat]

Both stocks and bonds did not like the rate hikes announcement. With follow through tomorrow anything embedded or trying to embed will drop down into an over bought condition. So tomorrow get a pot of coffee on and watch if this was an overreaction or if profit taking takes hold:

Looks like the rate hike is being absorbed:

 

[Bquat]

Both stocks and bonds did not like the rate hikes announcement. With follow through tomorrow anything embedded or trying to embed will drop down into an over bought condition. So tomorrow get a pot of coffee on and watch if this was an overreaction or if profit taking takes hold:

So stocks tried to go back up but top of long term channel held as resistance and good chance of more weakness. Couple not quite out of being embedded but very close. In bonds long term channel's bottom acted as resistance: Just my two cents and please comment if you want too. Went back to 5 day moving average for RSI. The 8 day didn't work out as well for a heads up:

 

[Bquat]

So stocks tried to go back up but top of long term channel held as resistance and good chance of more weakness. Couple not quite out of being embedded but very close. In bonds long term channel's bottom acted as resistance: Just my two cents and please comment if you want too. Went back to 5 day moving average for RSI. The 8 day didn't work out as well for a heads up:

More weakness: