Bquat's Account Talk

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Was happy to see that oil trumps Fedspeak (from minor players at least). Good. I was beginning to questions whether the fundamentals still worked. Today is Back to the Future again with oil, rinse and repeat...next pivot down is 1867.

Saw this comic last evening. You have to love cartoonists.

View attachment 36945

FS
 
I'm starting to hate OIL!!! Can't get any kind of real fix on the markets and we can't move our TSP accounts around that fast. It's like a broken thermostat...you never know whether the air conditioner is going to kick on, or the heat gets turned up..sheesh:buttkick:

FS
 
Anyone understand how to use an indicator by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Survey, that puts out a tool by the name of Delta tool vs. S&P500?
 
FogSailing said:
I'm starting to hate OIL!!! Can't get any kind of real fix on the markets and we can't move our TSP accounts around that fast. It's like a broken thermostat...you never know whether the air conditioner is going to kick on, or the heat gets turned up..sheesh:buttkick:

FS
Click to expand...
Demand on oil hasn't dropped as much as many think. The rumor is since Iran has got a good cash influx the are speculating they will sell their oil at submarket cost to get a quick sale of their stored oil. Also Opec is still and may have shut down shale oil and fracked oil to cut US production. It should decouple this summer as an indicator.
 
Hi Airlift. I'm can't say for certain but I went to their website and gleamed this from the site:

Why should you care about this data? According the originator of the survey and past NAAIM President William Hepburn, “NAAIM advisors absolutely nailed the 2008 decline by steadily reducing equity allocations beginning in late 2007.” Hepburn goes on to note, “NAAIM members had an average equity exposure of only 19% from June 2008 through March 2009.”

The survey is now seven years old. Ned Davis Research notes that when the NAAIM Survey is above 73% (which occurs approximately 23% of the time), the S&P 500 has lost ground at an annualized rate of -3.8% per year. This is likely due to the fact that by the time the survey sports a high reading; most managers have already established long positions.

When the survey reading is between 14% and 73%, the S&P has gained +1.9% per year (approximately 70% of the time). And when the survey reading is below 14% the S&P has gained at a rate of +40.0% (again, a low reading suggests that managers have already sold and likely have cash on hand ready to commit). This reading has only occurred 6% of the time.
- See more at: NAAIM Exposure Index: Managers Adapt To Changing Environment | State of the Markets

Summary from what I read: If the survey is between 14 and 73%, the S&P gains at a marginal rate (70% chance); if less than 14%, the S&P gains at a much larger rate but market risk is higher (much smaller chance), and the lower the survey score the lower the equity positions held my money managers which has correlated with market downturns.

FS
 
Bquat said:
Not seeing weakness yet but monitoring pink line:
Click to expand...

Hey, buddy! I'm still lurking just not on here much. Work and family life has been very crazy for the past couple of months. At any rate, can you make your chart look like a bumper pool table for me...I might be able to make sense of that!:D
 
It likes like they are more bullish than bearish.
Now, it looks like they are heading towards that 14 marker. News on the street isn't very good these days.
 
Sorry, I was referring to the NAAIM Exposure Index.
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed"]
[TR]
[TD]02/03/2016[/TD]
[TD]22.41[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]01/27/2016[/TD]
[TD]42.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Tomorrow will be a fascinating day. If the jobs numbers come out "off", they sell the news that the Fed won't hike...(Market goes up).. If the jobs numbers come out "good", they sell the economy is stable (Market goes up.) So far...so good.

Unless, the money grubbing lizards have spent all week sucking in new investors just to give them a "good" jobs number in the morning, followed by either bad news out of China, N. Korea firing its missle, or another "major event" like bank credit issues. What you want to know tonight before bed is whether the smart money has gone long or short tomorrow. If we all knew that, we'd all be making money.

Best of luck to all tomorrow.

View attachment 36957

FS
 
Ok, some good and bad news. The bad news is that equities are all in a bear flag.:worried: They did have something new today. The 18 day were tested from above and didn't fail.:smile:
Bonds came out from being embedded and yet they aren't falling as expected.:blink: The fledgling SGT is green in C fund, S fund and I fund. So some charts:
 
tbx1203 said:
What is sgt?
Click to expand...
Or an easier guess is that there is a green vertical line it's 60/40 the market will go up and a red line will indicate there's a 60/40 chance the market will go down. It's kind of like a little nudge one way or the other. I've only been doing it a month now and the only change lately was in the F Fund.
 
S&P Looking like a classic false breakout + bear flags waving all over the place. On the lily pad and think its going lower. Target 1850/1830 ish

HOpe I'm wrong, Guys - just gotta see some momentum above the 20EMA before this fish bytes. ; )

Strong rally in Oil could be the deal breaker though to get indexes up and make gains to pull a lot of us out of the deep reds.
 
Haven't made a dime this month.

But I did only lose 4.76% in January.

Like??

Yeah, it was way worse at one point.
 
No change in SGT but I don't know if it's proven technology seeing today's move. Didn't think to jobs report would have this much effect::(
 
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