Bquat's Account Talk

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Since the 50 day crossing the 200 day, I will be testing Second Guess Technology (SGT).:notrust: In this advanced theory; in a bear market; when the stochastic green line touches the pink (80) line you have a second guess the traders will sell the peak. On the other end where there is more of a chance to get embedded you wait until the green line follows the white line above the green (20) line as a second guess that traders will buy. Will this work I don't know but if someone is thinking of buying this dip I'd wait for the green line to cross. Just a guess with the SGT: Just another thing to guess with.:rolleyes:
 
I like it BQ; except I'm concerned about that "bear market" thing..

The problem for us is the "sell the rally" mentality that exists in the market right now. If you buy at say Sto 20, "When do the bears sell?" Assuming the sell signals follow Fib rules (so 23%, 50%, or 61.8% above to 1+(Fib), 2+(Fib) up) , the sell signal is dependent on the various elements in play at the time. The higher the potential "sell" signal, the better for TSPers because of our TSP limitations. My guess is that the big up rallies are probably quite limited as compared to the smaller rallies. Someone like JTH might have the stats on that. It would be and interesting data point to know.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
I like it BQ; except I'm concerned about that "bear market" thing..

The problem for us is the "sell the rally" mentality that exists in the market right now. If you buy at say Sto 20, "When do the bears sell?" Assuming the sell signals follow Fib rules (so 23%, 50%, or 61.8% above to 1+(Fib), 2+(Fib) up) , the sell signal is dependent on the various elements in play at the time. The higher the potential "sell" signal, the better for TSPers because of our TSP limitations. My guess is that the big up rallies are probably quite limited as compared to the smaller rallies. Someone like JTH might have the stats on that. It would be and interesting data point to know.

FS
Click to expand...
That's why it's SGT. You look at your indications and your Fib's and before you leap see where you are between the 80 and 20 level. It's what the overall market might do and I don't know if it will have anything to do with the difference between bears and bulls. It's dealing more with the chance with embedding and not embedding. With the 50 day below the 100 day the odds are good we don't embed above the 80 day. So far it's just a guess really but I wanted something as a secondary heads up.:cool: On one of the videos Nnuut posted there was a guy mentioning the importance of riding up or staying below the 8 day so I changed the 5 to 8 on the stochastic and marked the crossovers.
 
SGT (Second Guess Technology) has turned green. This may mean the odds of something good happening is improving::smile:
 
Bquat said:
Since the 50 day crossing the 200 day, I will be testing Second Guess Technology (SGT).:notrust: In this advanced theory; in a bear market; when the stochastic green line touches the pink (80) line you have a second guess the traders will sell the peak. On the other end where there is more of a chance to get embedded you wait until the green line follows the white line above the green (20) line as a second guess that traders will buy. Will this work I don't know but if someone is thinking of buying this dip I'd wait for the green line to cross. Just a guess with the SGT: Just another thing to guess with.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
C Fund is acting like a leader and breaks above the 18 day. Maybe we can embed:
 
SGT is still green and this is just a second guess on things: VIX has dropped below danger but will it bounce off the 50 or 100 day or embed?
 
The move today was news related to Japan's action. Can we trust this move of the Funds moving over the my 18 day with AGG embedded? Buy the SGT I trust it for now:
 
So there you have it. Feel free to post your thoughts even if you disagree on my guesses.:D
 
Hi Bquat! Really like your daily charts. Looks like price has broken above the18 Day MA....nice!

Looking a the Stochastic RSI..is that to indicators in one table??? Which part is the RSI? Look like settings are spot on.
Bquat said:
The move today was news related to Japan's action. Can we trust this move of the Funds moving over the my 18 day with AGG embedded? Buy the SGT I trust it for now:
Click to expand...
 
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Since the SPY is the chart is mostly used, I spread it out to play with some support and resistance lines for February. Even though Friday's move we speculation on news, I be hoping the gap draws us up over the first red line. Under the new SGT theory and being below the 200 day there's a 60/40 chance we drop after reaching the pink line. Now Birchtree would probably focus more on the chance of the V bottom after the double bottom:
 
Well F Fund just dropped out from being embedded. I had to wait because it looked like it could embed again. SGT red:
 
Who says the Fed doesn't intentionally manipulate the market....now that they've scared everyone out....looking for a skyrocket market tomorrow (maybe 1960-1970) assuming oil doesn't go up and a major event doesn't occur..it will be interesting to see if Fedspeak can beat EW on this one. Market was in position for a major downturn...does it go up tomorrow because of Fed, then perhaps again Friday if good jobs report comes in, and decline in a big way next week?????

Fed's Brainard calls for 'watchful waiting' in interview
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Wednesday said the central bank may need to stop lifting interest rates until it gets better clarity on the economy. "Recent developments reinforce the case for watchful waiting," Brainard told The Wall Street Journal. Brainard, who gets a vote at every interest-rate-setting meeting, is known as one of the more dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee. 4:23 p.m. Today

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Who says the Fed doesn't intentionally manipulate the market....now that they've scared everyone out....looking for a skyrocket market tomorrow (maybe 1960-1970) assuming oil doesn't go up and a major event doesn't occur..it will be interesting to see if Fedspeak can beat EW on this one. Market was in position for a major downturn...does it go up tomorrow because of Fed, then perhaps again Friday if good jobs report comes in, and decline in a big way next week?????

Fed's Brainard calls for 'watchful waiting' in interview
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Wednesday said the central bank may need to stop lifting interest rates until it gets better clarity on the economy. "Recent developments reinforce the case for watchful waiting," Brainard told The Wall Street Journal. Brainard, who gets a vote at every interest-rate-setting meeting, is known as one of the more dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee. 4:23 p.m. Today

FS
Click to expand...

Pity the fool that listens to this fool. She's (Brainard) an outlier and in the minority. Rates are going up again soon and an in-line (or better) jobs report will strengthen the case.
Until then, Thursday could be volatile.

Recent developments my A. What's that? She's long in the market? She can "call" for watchful waiting or a scoop of mint ice cream; doesn't mean she'll get either. Who the heck does she think she is? (answer: likely by herself on this one)
 
Not sure how it all plays out tomorrow but went back to review the fundamentals and reminded myself that problems from Industrials starting to spill over to the Services sectors, bank debt issues on the table, and the currencies are being volleyed about with wild abandon, oh (and oil), so who knows what tomorrow may bring. If the current uptrend a B wave, it will likely need to complete at 1958 or higher before it begins a retrace. I'm not sure it is B wave (because I've seen a host EW counts all different)...but if it is, we will see a large correction down to somewhere between 1790-1812.

FS
 
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