Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Well my Santa Rally theory is not quite working out.:embarrest: Was the drop today news based? With the SPY possibly going for gap fill is nixing the odds too. If we get below the bottom of the green gap, we may be getting our lump of coal.:worried: We at least whipsaw Wednesday is over:

 

[Bquat]

I may do some longterm end of year charts tomorrow for review since the wife and I partake New Years Eve at home. I might stick with midterm if we pop above my green lines. Won't lay odds on that happening.

 

[userque]

Well my Santa Rally theory is not quite working out.:embarrest: Was the drop today news based? ...

Could just be normal ebbnflow. We're in a price channel, but this channel has a recent higher high and higher low. (I haven't looked at my TSP model lately, so 'this' has nothing to do with 'that.'

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks, we are going to a seafood throwdown for New Year's eve.

What you are calling mid-term, I am calling short-term and your long-term channel is mid-term to me. From July high, the long-term is descending and in a bear market until it redeems itself. S&P is barely (bearly) positive for the year.

I may do some longterm end of year charts tomorrow for review since the wife and I partake New Years Eve at home. I might stick with midterm if we pop above my green lines. Won't lay odds on that happening.

 

[Bquat]

Thanks, we are going to a seafood throwdown for New Year's eve.

What you are calling mid-term, I am calling short-term and your long-term channel is mid-term to me. From July high, the long-term is descending and in a bear market until it redeems itself. S&P is barely (bearly) positive for the year.

Thanks Buddy. I am switching to a 4 Hour time frame for this year but still have to play with how much I spread out for charts. This may be a little wide for me but I will try it::cheesy:

 

[Bquat]

The Funds in 4 Hour:

 

[Bquat]

More charts:

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks for posting. Well, I still don't understand the long term S&P channel pointing up like that, it's almost an "X" with mid-term.

The attempted rally fizzled today, so now it's the bears ball to fumble. I noted on Tom's Market Outlook thread the oil rally today would get dragged down by the market (not the other way) before the decline started. Ugly close, hope there is no New Year's hangover on Monday. Market didn't look oversold going into the close.

No sense repeating myself, but what I posted before yesterday's open is still my plan. Today's action again confirmed wise not committing more funds until after a new year's assessment. Good news even though my 60% (70/30 stock/bonds) was flat for the week, the stake was bought on December 11th, so still positive position and nearly matched our TSP gains for the year in our accounts.

Happy New Year and time to get ready for the seafood throw down.

Well, my opinion has not changed on the descending channel, counter-trend, head fake and what happened yesterday. Many international markets are closed tomorrow or close early, so may not get full confirmation that was a head fake. Still should prove interesting as that was a pretty ugly close with weak internals.

 

[Bquat]

Thanks for posting. Well, I still don't understand the long term S&P channel pointing up like that, it's almost an "X" with mid-term.

The attempted rally fizzled today, so now it's the bears ball to fumble. I noted on Tom's Market Outlook thread the oil rally today would get dragged down by the market (not the other way) before the decline started. Ugly close, hope there is no New Year's hangover on Monday. Market didn't look oversold going into the close.

No sense repeating myself, but what I posted before yesterday's open is still my plan. Today's action again confirmed wise not committing more funds until after a new year's assessment. Good news even though my 60% (70/30 stock/bonds) was flat for the week, the stake was bought on December 11th, so still positive position and nearly matched our TSP gains for the year in our accounts.

Happy New Year and time to get ready for the seafood throw down.

You may have miss the comment where I stated that I restarted the long term from the last dip. I could be wrong doing this but you did say my long term was your midterm.Should I like relabel?

 

[OBXTrader]

OK, thanks I missed that. My long-term starts with July peak and tracks downward.

All done with New Year's throw down. No injuries or police.

You may have miss the comment where I stated that I restarted the long term from the last dip. I could be wrong doing this but you did say my long term was your midterm.Should I like relabel?

 

[Bquat]

Which way will we break out of the 2015 Nutshell? Chart for self::suspicious:

 

[shitepoke]

Which way will we break out of the 2015 Nutshell? Chart for self::suspicious:

looks to me like we go down to test support? IMO- don't feel too excited about monday...

 

[FogSailing]

Very possible for a pullback but not a certain thing but any sense of the imagination... Here's the SPX-Sentiment Survey for 2015 from a blog I follow. When the patterns diverge, it indicates a GREEN market. Good luck if you're in. Even if tomorrow isn't up, I'd say you're looking at a high probability for positive returns this week. Another thing to remember, the SPX only has to clear 2045 to have a positive first week...a very low bar.

View attachment 36510

FS

 

[shitepoke]

FS- thanks for previous chart. do think SPX 2045 was busted down on thurs (~2044) as to act as resistance with relatively bad economic news ??

 

[FogSailing]

I'm not sure SP. On the plus side, we have some positive divergences going on in the indicators. Also good news is that oil was up above 36.60 to 37.07. That has to be a good thing in this market...but we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how things go.

I'd say the chances are 50/50 for Monday.

FS

 

[Bquat]

Nutshell chart to self:

 

[Bquat]

As China sells assets, maybe we can get some of America back cheap. I am worried about their market's effect in ours.

 

[OBXTrader]

First posts were before December start of sell-off. To quote Talking Heads song Once in a Lifetime, "same as it ever was". Other than my December 11th position is now down. That's OK, it's all in a 2025 target date fund and was only down 1.15% yesterday. What, what?

Thanks for posting. Well, I still don't understand the long term S&P channel pointing up like that, it's almost an "X" with mid-term.

The attempted rally fizzled today, so now it's the bears ball to fumble. I noted on Tom's Market Outlook thread the oil rally today would get dragged down by the market (not the other way) before the decline started. Ugly close, hope there is no New Year's hangover on Monday. Market didn't look oversold going into the close.

No sense repeating myself, but what I posted before yesterday's open is still my plan. Today's action again confirmed wise not committing more funds until after a new year's assessment. Good news even though my 60% (70/30 stock/bonds) was flat for the week, the stake was bought on December 11th, so still positive position and nearly matched our TSP gains for the year in our accounts.

Happy New Year and time to get ready for the seafood throw down.

 

[Bquat]

Charts are now redrawn from 14 December Longterm and 5 October for Midterm. Are we broken?

 

[Bquat]

G Fund: