JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 929
When Border Security Becomes Domestic Power: The ICE ScenarioNote: This post isn’t about immigration politics. It’s about what to buy/sell when government power expands. It would take a real shift in law, politics, or public pressure to pull back the powers already set in motion. I'll make the case for how power is expanding, thus this leads to the Buy/Sell conclusions.
- You’re early if you believe this trend will accelerate and become structural.
- You’re late if you’re hoping to be the very first to profit from the “security state” trade.
- But you’re right on time if you’re preparing for the next escalation.
The groundwork for a militarized, ever-expanding ICE is already being laid. The last decade saw ICE get billions in new funding, more agents, military surplus vehicles, and broad leeway to operate far from the border. The “war on drugs” rhetoric has morphed into a military assisted “war on cartels,” with U.S. leaders openly talking about military action in Mexico, drone strikes on drug convoys, and American forces recently destroying cartel-linked drug boats and submarines at sea. .
● Now, cartel violence is cited as the latest justification. Reports of threats, doxxing, and bounties on agents spark fresh calls for more boots, bigger budgets, and looser rules of engagement.
● As of 2024, ICE already has about 21,800 authorized personnel, with additional contractors, temps, and local support not always included.
● Under this expansion, ICE is projected to hire 10,000 new agents over several years.
● ICE’s detention infrastructure is planned to support an avg. daily population of 100K detainees, with 80K new ICE beds funded.
● ICE’s weaponization and equipment has ramped up: now purchases military-grade gear, including drones, body armor, and modern sidearms.
● An executive order limiting the transfer of military equipment to police was rescinded, making it easier for ICE to receive surplus military hardware.
● ICE now runs extensive databases, facial recognition, and cellphone tracking operations, often in coordination with private tech firms.
Fear Drives Expansion
A media blitz hammers the message: “Cartels are here. They’re targeting Americans. No one is safe.” Elected leaders demand emergency powers, and the public, (worried about safety), mostly goes along. Critics are told they’re weak or naive. Protests are met not just with riot police, but federal agents in tactical gear, often ICE or DHS, and it's already happening.
Checks and Balances Erode
Judges defer to “national security.” Funding is tied to cooperation. The distinction between border enforcement and domestic policing blurs. Now ICE is used not just for immigration, but for crowd control, surveillance, and “homeland protection.” Anyone can be a target if labeled a threat.
A New American Mindset ● Primed environment to accept checkpoints, mass detentions, surveillance.
● Since 2001, nearly two generations have lived their formative years under constant surveillance and security checks, a “new normal” for American life.
● Federal agents, often under DHS or ICE have been deployed in major cities during protests, scooping people off the street into unmarked vans.
● Surveillance has expanded, emergency powers invoked, and Congress keeps signing off, in the name of national security.
● COVID: Americans accepted lockdowns, curfews, and travel bans.
Stock Market Play: What To Buy/Sell If ICE Becomes America’s Domestic Force?• Likely Winners:
• Defense, surveillance, and security tech with new demand for weapons, drones, and analytics.
• Private prison and detention companies with fresh contracts as arrests and detentions spike.
• Likely Losers:
• Travel, hospitality, and local consumer names, especially in big cities or border regions, could suffer if checkpoints become common.
• Agriculture and low-wage service stocks with immigrant-heavy workforces could see disruption.
• Wildcards:
• Bitcoin, gold, and “escape assets” catch a bid when Americans get nervous about civil liberties and capital controls.
• Volatility products (VIX ETFs, S&P puts) might see spikes if headlines get uglier.
How to Position:
Watch for new contract wins, political headlines, and earnings from these “security state” sectors. Hedge exposure to consumer/urban stocks if unrest rises. If you’re worried about the pace, keep some dry powder in cash, gold, or defensive names.
Security State Sectors: Who Wins if Control Expands?
• Defense & Aerospace (ITA/XAR): Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman all benefit from new military and enforcement contracts.
• Security & Surveillance Tech (CIBR/HACK): Palantir, Axon, Motorola Solutions, and Leidos supply surveillance, facial recognition, and police tech.
• Private Prisons & Detention (CXW, GEO): CoreCivic and GEO Group land contracts for mass detention, processing, and transport.
• Cloud & Infrastructure (SKYY): Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and IBM power the government’s expanding surveillance and data operations.
• Weapons & Law Enforcement Gear[/b]: Axon, Vista Outdoor, and Smith & Wesson provide tasers, riot gear, and equipment for federal and local agencies.
• Cybersecurity (CIBR, BUG): CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet are critical as surveillance and government systems require constant cyber defense.
• Transport & Logistics (XLI, XTN): Jacobs, Fluor, and Oshkosh help build, move, and supply the machinery of enforcement.
What Takes The ICE Scenario Off The Table?
• Congress steps in to restrict ICE’s funding, mission, or legal authorities, blocking expansion or militarization through new laws or oversight.
• The courts (including the Supreme Court) strike down emergency powers or broad enforcement tactics as unconstitutional, reining in federal agencies.
• Widespread public opposition and mass protest force leaders to back down from aggressive enforcement and surveillance.
• State and local governments refuse cooperation with federal agencies, setting legal or logistical barriers to ICE and DHS expansion.
• A new administration or bipartisan political deal rewrites priorities, scaling back enforcement in favor of legal reform, technology, or diplomatic solutions.
• Major media, watchdog groups, or whistleblowers expose overreach or abuses, shifting public opinion and putting pressure on policymakers.
I’m not paranoid; I’m just early, or too late...JTH
