Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Bquat - Assume you are Premium Member. Are you allowed to comment on your own charts or give opinions? Was curious since it's your own work. Thank you for posting.

As you know, I am the friendly neighborhood conservative saver/investor. So, not a big fan of the 90 degree downward move across 100 day on the S&P, seems like something I would associate with a bear market gaining momentum. I don't know what to say about S Fund. If this leg down continues next week, might lead others to conclude we just finished another counter-trend rally as part of bear market that began in July. Friday momentum was clearly down at the close and only a short week ago we were told this rally was like a runaway train.

I deployed 100% of my modest asset allocations into the market on October 2nd and took out the last 2/3's left the market on November 2nd because I saw an opportunity and an exit. (Plan explained on JTH's talk October 23rd). I want the market to rebound, bottom could have been Friday or might be Thanksgiving, I am no expert. But, at this point in the year, I don't want or need to find the perfect day to buy, so if I get a buy signal it will have to align with a clearly defined turn to catch the tail for another 1% rather than the teeth and wipe out a decent low risk/stress year. My biggest mistakes come when I go with my gut and get impatient or insist on riding out a losing trade rather than remaining objective and acting on the best information available.

I'll explain my charts a little bit. What I do mainly is try to define the midterm with the orange lines by picking recent peaks and bottoms. I also put red line for possible resistance and blue lines for possible support. A few years ago traders in the pit used to watch trends and possible resistance lines turn into support lines. Now with the Super Computers there is few people in the pits and traders out time market moves were as news has more influence on the market. Moves go faster and volatility is greater. My theory is that they use more of a reaction based trading system because smart money can out maneuver the market.:suspicious: I do the charts because some can see things that may help them determine risk or where there,s a 60 percent chance of support but as you know just words about a interest percent change can move the market a lot even after we lock in our IFT. I did the 5% line as a place where buyers may start buying and has over a 50% chance but Paris news can defeat that. I have less trust in a chart based system now days but like to chart.

 

[Bquat]

Was the 4.5% correction enough? Are we breaking above the long term trying to get back to the highs. I be watching the 18 Day in a few of the charts.

 

[Bquat]

C Fund:

 

[Bquat]

S Fund:

 

[Bquat]

I Fund:

 

[Bquat]

F Fund:

 

[Bquat]

Transports:

 

[Bquat]

There you go. You can look and decide>

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Bquat. Based on your charts the S Fund is ready for a big move. From your chart it appears it has not broken through resistance at 1044 (18dma). It is outside the Longterm channel down residing in the Midterm Channel up. Just checked W4500 where RSI is 61.44 and MACD was .03, and Vortex Indicator had bands coming together so all positive for a "green" day. So, what will the news be when we wake up. How will Options Expiration play? Is it going to be up or down? I'll be following the action when I wake up tomorrow.

Thanks as always for your charts.!!

FS

 

[Bquat]

I was liking the C fund with it consolidation on the 18 day. I hope it may be the leader.

 

[FogSailing]

VIX looks like it wants to test a lower range. That could prove positive for SPX today...

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

Hi Bquat. Based on your charts the S Fund is ready for a big move. From your chart it appears it has not broken through resistance at 1044 (18dma). It is outside the Longterm channel down residing in the Midterm Channel up. Just checked W4500 where RSI is 61.44 and MACD was .03, and Vortex Indicator had bands coming together so all positive for a "green" day. So, what will the news be when we wake up. How will Options Expiration play? Is it going to be up or down? I'll be following the action when I wake up tomorrow.

Thanks as always for your charts.!!

FS

WARP factor one, Mr. Scott!

 

[Bquat]

VIX looks like it wants to test a lower range. That could prove positive for SPX today...

FS

Yes it presently looks fantastic but it could be a cup and handle so keep an open eye on it::suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Redrew my charts from the last bigger dip to see shorter term reaction after the dip:

 

[Bquat]

Funds:

 

[Bquat]

So since the trend lines are shorter term, we'll have to see how they continue into the normally better part of the year.

 

[FogSailing]

You may have called the "cup and handle" right Bquat. SPX was pulling back at the close but the VIX was still quite helpful on Friday. I'm now thinking we will see a 20 point pullback on SPX (Monday or Tuesday) before we move on to a higher high. It will be interesting to see if JTH's assessment holds true next week (S and F Funds outperform next week based on their historic probabilities). Thanks as always for the charts.

FS

 

[Bquat]

So with Black Friday sales starting November 1ST, I think the Black Friday sales report will be a moot factor as an indicator of future holiday sales. Holiday sales began on Halloween. So everything being on sale already scarring anyone about the economy? I'm seeing a 30% discount on all TVs. Must be labor wages in China dropping or flooding the US market in products.:worried::worried:

 

[Bquat]

Here's another theory for this year's holiday. With Gas prices so low this holiday will be filled with travel. This year many will do something they have been putting off for years. They will go see out of town family. Major purchases and large gifts will be passed up this year to enable more funds for travel. TVs and appliances purchases will be made post holiday. JMO

 

[Bquat]

Here's another theory for this year's holiday. With Gas prices so low this holiday will be filled with travel. This year many will do something they have been putting off for years. They will go see out of town family. Major purchases and large gifts will be passed up this year to enable more funds for travel. TVs and appliances purchases will be made post holiday. JMO

It has been written and so shall be read by the masses and become so. Just kidding guys.:smile: