Bquat's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Hi Bquat. Thanks for the charts...now for my 3rd cuppa...

FS

 

[FAB1]

Maybe the f is oversold. maybe stocks will drop Monday and the f go back up. maybe im dreaming.

 

[FAB1]

How come when I sign in from the last page here I get bumped back a couple of months instead of returned to the page I started from. very weird.

 

[Bquat]

How come when I sign in from the last page here I get bumped back a couple of months instead of returned to the page I started from. very weird.

Maybe you just entered the twilight zone

 

[Mcqlives]

Been playing with a Bull flag with the S Fund. Maybe good news is bad news then good news. Oh I don't know. F Fund looks bad. Charts.

Man, your playing with it either messed it up or set the stage for Monday. A close right at the 100 after a mostly negative day. I, being 100% S, am hoping you set the stage for a positive day on Monday! Have a great weekend and, as always, thanks for the charts!

 

[Bquat]

Man, your playing with it either messed it up or set the stage for Monday. A close right at the 100 after a mostly negative day. I, being 100% S, am hoping you set the stage for a positive day on Monday! Have a great weekend and, as always, thanks for the charts!

What are you trying to say? It looks above the 100 Day to me. Let me zoom in for you, but it's still a lower High:

 

[Bquat]

You know? I was looking back at the F Fund's down move and thought I would redo the Transports chart. I wasn't seeing a breakdown from the H&S and the top of the Longterm was holding. So maybe it should be bullish since we made it through the Sep-Oct time frame.Here's the new chart with a bullish bias: What think you?:suspicious:

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Bquat. Appreciate the charts as always. Being above the 100MA certainly looks bullish as does the ascending triangle. If Transports are a leading indicator, that picture looks pretty good. I'm hoping for at least another day of positive action before there is some kind of pullback. I'm not as familiar with the DJT Fund as the C Fund. Further complicating things is that some funds lag others. Therefore, understanding the timing is next to impossible for me. One thing I have learned over the years is that when the market decides to move, it moves quickly.

Monday will be a big day. If consumer spending is underway and people are opening their wallets, I think we rally. However, if we pullback, I plan to retreat.

That said, when we do pullback, I still think it will be about an 80-100 point pullback on the SPX; somewhere between 2019 to 2040 based on what many of the EW sites are suggesting. I want to miss that. Once that completes, there should be a major rally up to mid-December or so.

At least that's one logical way for it to unfold. But always remember that the smart money follows my GOOFS system: Go the Opposite Of FogSailing.

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

What are you trying to say? It looks above the 100 Day to me. Let me zoom in for you, but it's still a lower High:

I saw that is edged the 100...but from a purly statistical point of view it just did. I like it but would have preferred a little larger of a gap up off the 100 for confirmation before end of trading. Someone around here pointed out the anomaly when dealing with the dma's (a little higher or a little lower does not necessarily give us direction) and I like to see at least a 1/4 point gain or loss before saying a direction exists.

 

[airlift]

Thanks Bquat. Appreciate the charts as always. Being above the 100MA certainly looks bullish as does the ascending triangle. If Transports are a leading indicator, that picture looks pretty good. I'm hoping for at least another day of positive action before there is some kind of pullback. I'm not as familiar with the DJT Fund as the C Fund. Further complicating things is that some funds lag others. Therefore, understanding the timing is next to impossible for me. One thing I have learned over the years is that when the market decides to move, it moves quickly.

Monday will be a big day. If consumer spending is underway and people are opening their wallets, I think we rally. However, if we pullback, I plan to retreat.

That said, when we do pullback, I still think it will be about an 80-100 point pullback on the SPX; somewhere between 2019 to 2040 based on what many of the EW sites are suggesting. I want to miss that. Once that completes, there should be a major rally up to mid-December or so.

At least that's one logical way for it to unfold. But always remember that the smart money follows my GOOFS system: Go the Opposite Of FogSailing.

FS

FogSailing, if Monday is a big day to the upside and we rally, then it will be difficult to find a buyable place to deploy further funds. On the other hand, if we get a pullback of around 80-100 points, I would like to skip a good part of the downside. I would like to ask you to share your opinion as to the major indications that you will be looking for, that would help you retreat to skip the bulk of the losses. Thanks.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Airlift. If we have a pullback that appears to be headed south of 2080 SPX..I will get somewhere else. Please remember..I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my moves..just sharing my thoughts. There constant head fakes in the markets so it pays to try to understand what's driving the change as best as possible. All the best to you in your investing.

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[airlift]

Hi Airlift. If we have a pullback that appears to be headed south of 2080 SPX..I will get somewhere else. Please remember..I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my moves..just sharing my thoughts. There constant head fakes in the markets so it pays to try to understand what's driving the change as best as possible. All the best to you in your investing.

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

FogSailing, I just wanted your opinion, but I am not holding you responsible for my decision to sell, after evaluating the merits of your opinion and the opinions of others. If I decide to act after considering your opinion, it is my responsibility and no one else's responsibility. Keep sharing your views at will, and I will appreciate it. Tia.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks. It's a difficult decision to get out at a time where historically we make the best returns. But I will if the market shows weakness. I am influenced by the EW folks probably more than I should be. However, the more you read the posts of the TSPerS the more I am informed about each persons different criteria for making their moves. I really enjoy Tsunami, Clester, JTH, DBA, Bquat and many others who share their insights. Most of the time I find that input helpful to me. Good luck to us Monday. I'm hoping for a rally up. It would make my week.

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[Bquat]

Here's some 5% correction lines for you guys and let's see if the markets think this is enough:

 

[OBXTrader]

Bquat - Assume you are Premium Member. Are you allowed to comment on your own charts or give opinions? Was curious since it's your own work. Thank you for posting.

As you know, I am the friendly neighborhood conservative saver/investor. So, not a big fan of the 90 degree downward move across 100 day on the S&P, seems like something I would associate with a bear market gaining momentum. I don't know what to say about S Fund. If this leg down continues next week, might lead others to conclude we just finished another counter-trend rally as part of bear market that began in July. Friday momentum was clearly down at the close and only a short week ago we were told this rally was like a runaway train.

I deployed 100% of my modest asset allocations into the market on October 2nd and took out the last 2/3's left the market on November 2nd because I saw an opportunity and an exit. (Plan explained on JTH's talk October 23rd). I want the market to rebound, bottom could have been Friday or might be Thanksgiving, I am no expert. But, at this point in the year, I don't want or need to find the perfect day to buy, so if I get a buy signal it will have to align with a clearly defined turn to catch the tail for another 1% rather than the teeth and wipe out a decent low risk/stress year. My biggest mistakes come when I go with my gut and get impatient or insist on riding out a losing trade rather than remaining objective and acting on the best information available.

Here's some 5% correction lines for you guys and let's see if the markets think this is enough:

 

[burrocrat]

My biggest mistakes come when I get impatient or insist on riding out a losing trade.

no. i disagree. your biggest mistakes, everyone's biggest mistakes, the whole 'what shoulda been what i shoulda done' mistakes, come from needing proof and confirmation before deciding it is ok to do it. by the time it is clear what you shoulda done, 75% of the gains have already been made and one is just licking boots for scraps. fortune favors the bold.

 

[OBXTrader]

Dear sir, you don't know me. I certainly would feel worse when I lose REAL money rather than "coulda woulda shoulda money". Since I am a conservative investor, my missing out is not like someone who moves in and out of the S Fund. If I missed a leg up, that's actually OK I am not in competition with anyone here. I missed buy is just that, I wake up with delicious G fund interest the next day. And, every day presents new opportunities. I am an optimist, but cautious.. No, chasing returns after the big move is not for me. I winced when I saw people buying into the market at the beginning of this month.

no. i disagree. your biggest mistakes, everyone's biggest mistakes, the whole 'what shoulda been what i shoulda done' mistakes, come from needing proof and confirmation before deciding it is ok to do it. by the time it is clear what you shoulda done, 75% of the gains have already been made and one is just licking boots for scraps. fortune favors the bold.

 

[userque]

Dear sir, you don't know me. I certainly would feel worse when I lose REAL money rather than "coulda woulda shoulda money". Since I am a conservative investor, my missing out is not like someone who moves in and out of the S Fund. If I missed a leg up, that's actually OK I am not in competition with anyone here. I missed buy is just that, I wake up with delicious G fund interest the next day. And, every day presents new opportunities. I am an optimist, but cautious.. No, chasing returns after the big move is not for me. I winced when I saw people buying into the market at the beginning of this month.

 

[burrocrat]

Dear sir, you don't know me. I certainly would feel worse when I lose REAL money rather than "coulda woulda shoulda money". Since I am a conservative investor, my missing out is not like someone who moves in and out of the S Fund. If I missed a leg up, that's actually OK I am not in competition with anyone here. I missed buy is just that, I wake up with delicious G fund interest the next day. And, every day presents new opportunities. I am an optimist, but cautious.. No, chasing returns after the big move is not for me. I winced when I saw people buying into the market at the beginning of this month.

I respect that preserving your 'real' money you bet is worth more to you than my gaining with my 'real' money is worth to me. but you should know that i move my 'real' tsp.gov account with my trades i post here. this is not a game. i am trying to score gains, and i do. not as bad as some, better than some others. 7.5% on average over 5 years, better if you cherry pick the time frames. i am totally ok with that, because i did it like frank sinatra. discount it if you will, but i know what is in my account and how it got there, and that is what i will eat on in the end. your money means no more or less to you than my money means to me.

 

[OBXTrader]

I here you. I am military retired, only got what I got to put in while I was on active duty and it's done real well considering this is all I got. Not quite doubled my money since 2010, but working on it and will get there in next few years I hope. My time in market this year and win percentage is where I want it given the market conditions. If I do nothing, I will do around 7.5% and never really took big risks. (OK, my move in October 2nd was my riskiest and paid off well but I got the signals before the herd jumped in). If I was still contributing through payroll deduction and not close to retirement age I would have different attitude I am sure.

I respect that preserving your 'real' money you bet is worth more to you than my gaining with my 'real' money is worth to me. but you should know that i move my 'real' tsp.gov account with my trades i post here. this is not a game. i am trying to score gains, and i do. not as bad as some, better than some others. 7.5% on average over 5 years, better if you cherry pick the time frames. i am totally ok with that, because i did it like frank sinatra. discount it if you will, but i know what is in my account and how it got there, and that is what i will eat on in the end. your money means no more or less to you than my money means to me.