Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

It has been written and so shall be read by the masses and become so. Just kidding guys.:smile:

Somebody must be reading this because Futures are down.

 

[FogSailing]

BQ: You had me LMAO and rolling on the floor....

Thank you. I needed that...

FS

 

[anthony]

So with Black Friday sales starting November 1ST, I think the Black Friday sales report will be a moot factor as an indicator of future holiday sales. Holiday sales began on Halloween. So everything being on sale already scarring anyone about the economy? I'm seeing a 30% discount on all TVs. Must be labor wages in China dropping or flooding the US market in products.:worried::worried:

There's something of an underground movement going on to make the whole Thanksgiving weekend about family again, with some stores (like REI) pledging not to open, and some groups trying to get people to stay home and boycott the mall. Mostly I think the stores are just realizing how much bigger the cyber sales are becoming, so maybe they can save some manpower costs by not opening over a holiday, while also gaining "good company" points by showing how much they love their employees. I think it ends up with no significant difference when sales and earnings come in. Short version, I concur with you opinion that Black Friday sales are going to be less of an indicator this year and in the future.

 

[Bquat]

There's something of an underground movement going on to make the whole Thanksgiving weekend about family again, with some stores (like REI) pledging not to open, and some groups trying to get people to stay home and boycott the mall. Mostly I think the stores are just realizing how much bigger the cyber sales are becoming, so maybe they can save some manpower costs by not opening over a holiday, while also gaining "good company" points by showing how much they love their employees. I think it ends up with no significant difference when sales and earnings come in. Short version, I concur with you opinion that Black Friday sales are going to be less of an indicator this year and in the future.

Remember as I said last year "When Black Friday sell figures are reported they don't include increased labor costs." So profit goes up 40% while labor cost up 50% and this was last year. Stores are trying to get more sells before Cyber Friday this year. Just my guess.

 

[Danny]

Bquat, Hello! Last week on your W4500 Chart I was noticing a large IHS pattern developing as we bounced from the lower BB (the head) that appears to be a similar to or a repeat pattern of the previous of IHS that bottomed around the end of Sep. I basically went against my instincts and sold at the bottom of the head but wrote down each of the targets I believed the pattern would need to hit to be a repeat of the last IHS. So far they have played out which would point to an up swing from the neck starting after today... with a target of about 1063 and a double top. Do you see that or am I imagining it? if so wouldn't a buy today be prudent?

Thanks,
Danny

 

[Danny]

Something like this?

 

[Bquat]

Bquat, Hello! Last week on your W4500 Chart I was noticing a large IHS pattern developing as we bounced from the lower BB (the head) that appears to be a similar to or a repeat pattern of the previous of IHS that bottomed around the end of Sep. I basically went against my instincts and sold at the bottom of the head but wrote down each of the targets I believed the pattern would need to hit to be a repeat of the last IHS. So far they have played out which would point to an up swing from the neck starting after today... with a target of about 1063 and a double top. Do you see that or am I imagining it? if so wouldn't a buy today be prudent?

Thanks,
Danny

Sorry for the late response. I was at breakfast. I no longer give buy and sell recommendations. The IH&S is still relevant but would at least watch the 100 Day since it's within the 1% range. 1040 - 1041 has been a critical area all year with the 18 day now as a co-conspirator. So you may still have a few trading days to decide.

 

[Bquat]

Well I don't know what to tell you. Looked real good today with the breaking of the 100 Day. Ira Epstein in the past explained it kind of this way "an outside up day can be very bulish but it can also be a bull trap". Maybe not a direct quote but may be the jest of it. So I guess we'll wait and see what he says. https://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures end of day financial report for the 24th. :suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Sorry Ira doesn't talk about the S Fund and SPY didn't have outside up day. But he did discuss the IH&S. So the link is relevant.

 

[Bquat]

Bquat, Hello! Last week on your W4500 Chart I was noticing a large IHS pattern developing as we bounced from the lower BB (the head) that appears to be a similar to or a repeat pattern of the previous of IHS that bottomed around the end of Sep. I basically went against my instincts and sold at the bottom of the head but wrote down each of the targets I believed the pattern would need to hit to be a repeat of the last IHS. So far they have played out which would point to an up swing from the neck starting after today... with a target of about 1063 and a double top. Do you see that or am I imagining it? if so wouldn't a buy today be prudent?

Thanks,
Danny

Or even 1060. So what did you decide? If not, I'll give you odds on the yellow circle for Friday or maybe Monday. Hmmm? 50/50 it will top there:

 

[Danny]

Or even 1060. So what did you decide? If not, I'll give you odds on the yellow circle for Friday or maybe Monday. Hmmm? 50/50 it will top there:

I follow one of the premiums with my real money, but I keep track of theoretical counter moves based on my understanding of chart patterns... I'm trying to build up trust in my predictions so not be a total sheep and have the nads to go against signals as I see fit.

I love looking for patterns in charts and call targets right more than not. Thanks for putting yours out there for everyone to see, it really helps!

Danny

 

[FogSailing]

One of the biggest surprises to me is that the rally continued this week in the S Fund. I knew it had some catching up to do but I thought it had been acting quite bearish and was expecting any larger gains to be in Dow and C, not so much in S. I really don't like it when so many aspects of the market are not making sense. Bonds are not ticking up much even when the stock funds are down 1% or more. I recently read that smart money has been using buybacks to mask their exit from the markets as they move to safer positions...So while I do hope for a Santa rally: I will hold my positions and not increase my exposure because I simply don't want to buy in at the high water mark. I still think the C Fund has more pullback that needs to happen in order to have any kind of meaningful Santa rally. It hasn't breached 2093 for 2 days in a row so maybe a quick pullback is in the cards...but perhaps that's already happened. One of the other interesting things is that I can't seem to find anyone reliable who blogs on R2000 Elliott Wave. The counts are different for the 2 indices so what works for SPX doesn't necessarily fit R2000. My guess is that we still have a pullback pending in both BUT it's all guesstimating. A pullback to around 2040-SPX or 1150-R2000 would provide a nice Santa rally.

Best of luck to all in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

ECB moves to more QE on the positive side, but news reports say reduced oil prices on the negative side..but we have 24 hours to digest that so maybe NOT...hmmmm

The EC QE makes me consider taking a harder look at the I Fund, however, it's not like they're considering a massive QE...it sounds more incremental from what I read and I haven't been impressed so far..hmmmmmm

Oil prices drop on supply glut worries - MarketWatch

It's all probably some kind of head fake anyway.. I wish I was fast enough to see the magician's sleight of hand

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

Or even 1060. So what did you decide? If not, I'll give you odds on the yellow circle for Friday or maybe Monday. Hmmm? 50/50 it will top there:

Belated Happy Thanksgiving! Reference your S fund chart...I hope you are wrong with the topping action but am fearful you are right with your yellow circle..and that will be after we do a slight drop (possibly today?).

On a side note...for anyone with a Scheels store who got their paper yesterday, I'm curious if this was nationwide...my local Scheels ran a 1/2 page ad saying thanks to everyone and reprinting George Washingtons original proclamation. That store may be a little proud with their price point but they are a class act!

 

[Bquat]

Belated Happy Thanksgiving! Reference your S fund chart...I hope you are wrong with the topping action but am fearful you are right with your yellow circle..and that will be after we do a slight drop (possibly today?).

On a side note...for anyone with a Scheels store who got their paper yesterday, I'm curious if this was nationwide...my local Scheels ran a 1/2 page ad saying thanks to everyone and reprinting George Washingtons original proclamation. That store may be a little proud with their price point but they are a class act!

Thanks. Zoom in. V bottom or rising wedge? I'm thinking 55/45 on yellow circle:

 

[FogSailing]

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I looked at the R2000 this morning and Bquat's weekend assessment looks pretty solid to me. The R2000 seems to be on a path to a 61.8 Fib retracement up to roughly 160 DWCPF but then it appears to me to be met with solid resistance.



View attachment 36082

Here's what the SPX looks like.....

View attachment 36083

SPX has already retraced above a 61.8 Fib. Market still looks choppy based for SPX on today's start. When SPX hit the Fib 61.8, it continued upward. Because of seasonality that certainly seems possible for R2000. It will be interesting to see how Asian stocks impact the market, whether oil does a major dip or not, and whether the dollar weakens or strengthens. I'm seeing a lot of conflicting storylines but my gut is saying oil heads down (unless we have another incident) and dollar strengthens because of a flight of money in US bonds. But who knows.

I love this stuff....

FS

 

[PessOptimist]

Not a bad call on ^DWCPF and even closer on W4500.

PO

 

[Bquat]

VIX-X CBOE:

 

[Bquat]

DJ-20:

 

[Bquat]

F Fund: