Bquat's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

Bquat,

Things are coiling tighter this morning and you are right on the possibility of a breakout...unfortunately I think, unless we get great news out of the EU meetings, the most likely direction is down. I hope I am wrong on this and have some more digging to do (I won't make a choice for another 35 minutes or so) but am considering going into preservation mode. Thoughts?

 

[cak165]

Tom DeMark from Market Studies thinks S&P is heading to 1330 by Dec. 21. He's been right on the money in some of his previous predictions, his market indicators are all showing a rally over the next couple of weeks.

“I had the strongest short-term buy signal I’ve recorded in 40 years” during the week of Thanksgiving, which fell Nov. 24, said DeMark, the founder of Market Studies LLC, in a phone interview. “It’d be an explosive move to the upside.”

“The market should top out around Dec. 21,” DeMark said today. “The market rhythm and market balance equilibrium all require the market rally. Once that’s completed, the market will have a vacuum on the downside and we should have a sharp decline.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/demark-s-p-500-at-1-330-by-christmas.html

 

[Bquat]

Bquat,

Things are coiling tighter this morning and you are right on the possibility of a breakout...unfortunately I think, unless we get great news out of the EU meetings, the most likely direction is down. I hope I am wrong on this and have some more digging to do (I won't make a choice for another 35 minutes or so) but am considering going into preservation mode. Thoughts?

Sideways movement and no direction yet. I mentioned earlier that it may delay any decisions for another day. Also it's a coin toss. The last time we broke out the bottom so what are the odds. I believe there still be a retest of 1240 area.

 

[Bquat]

Tom DeMark from Market Studies thinks S&P is heading to 1330 by Dec. 21. He's been right on the money in some of his previous predictions, his market indicators are all showing a rally over the next couple of weeks.

“I had the strongest short-term buy signal I’ve recorded in 40 years” during the week of Thanksgiving, which fell Nov. 24, said DeMark, the founder of Market Studies LLC, in a phone interview. “It’d be an explosive move to the upside.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/demark-s-p-500-at-1-330-by-christmas.html

“The market should top out around Dec. 21,” DeMark said today. “The market rhythm and market balance equilibrium all require the market rally. Once that’s completed, the market will have a vacuum on the downside and we should have a sharp decline.” I believe the price objective is a good one. I'm thinking 1320 myself but think there's a possibility of a dip to 1240 also befor the up move. JMHO

 

[Bquat]

So, feeling guilty because of over sleeping as you can see I'm up eariler today. Today is more critical anyway. The market wants to remain bullish but as you can see by the long term the top of the old channel blocked the move and we dropped into triangle or maybe a pennant. I think the market is coiling for a big move soon. If this is a bullish pennant I don't know? Why today is short term critical is today the market has to decide as to continue this short term small bull channel or turn from the top of the triangle and go down. Little bull is biting at the bit and little bear is waving his finger saying "no don't do it." So today we watch.

As to a slightly longer term, if the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA by the end of this week, traders will go bullish.So as a treat I'll give you the chart early. I redrew the top side of the short bull pattern to touch more lines and so you can see the top of the triangle holding us back. Is the third try the charm? Even if we go bullish after IFT time, we can still get some gains between the top of the triangle and the top of the old channel at 1320ish.

I think Des Woodruff is reading me.

http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/

 

[Bquat]

Been showing you that Little Bull was hoping the white channel would continue up. Well I must be fair and show Little Bear's hope:

We fail to continue up and take the last two touches of the purple line as a double top and break below the bottom of the white channel. This causes a cascade effect, where as we enter the circle area and the 20 period moving average crosses the 50 period moving average and we become bearish short term. The retracement can go down to 1242 and as far as 1226. A correction to 1242 may be good for the market. The trouble with 1226 is if it doesen't hold we may go into the gap fill mode and thats two Fibonacci levels down with another gape to fill.

I been saying that this market is coiling for a big move and with not setting a new high today, the move could be down. Thats why I have only 30% in. Hoping for a break up and scared for a break down. I was more bullish until Hitting the top of the channel in a big move then erasing all that gain just as quick. So in Capital Preservation mode it's best to be careful. Ok now you have the rest of the story.

 

[Bquat]

Good morning guys. Well Dec 7, 11 roll the dice day. After reviewing both sides and seeing that we are being wedged between the purple line and the bottom white line, I'm a little bearish. We have higher lows and flat top. Oscar in the past has said flat tops cause big drops. I kind of think if we were going up, futures would of popped and gapped up like in the two privious moves. I posted my concerns in my last post.:worried:

Ok here's a clean chart for you and after we see which direction we'll mark it up with resistance or support lines.

 

[Bquat]

Here's the support levels.:worried:

 

[Bquat]

This may be the move we needed.
The bulls are buying the dip and if we can get back above 50 period moving average we stay bullish.
If we don't, well set a lower high and the bears win.

 

[Bquat]

You might have to right click on my chart and paste in in word to spread and enlarge it.

 

[MaStA]

I went 100% G fund today because all of this talk the last couple days has scared me lol. I still have one IFT for the month though so I'm ready to jump back in when the bull heard starts running. I still have my Roth IRA invested though, but was considering pulling that out too. I haven't messed with my Roth IRA since I opened it several months ago. Are you or anyone else familiar with how mutual funds work with USAA? Like if I pull my money out of a mutual fund do I have to wait 30 days before I can reinvest in that specific mutual fund or can I move it around as much as I want? I would call USAA, but everytime you talk to a person about investments they lecture you about their life insurance policies and I'm sick of hearing about it from them.

Thanks!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Like if I pull my money out of a mutual fund do I have to wait 30 days before I can reinvest in that specific mutual fund

Yes

or can I move it around as much as I want?

No

However, they have a few funds that you can use to mirror the S&P, NASDAQ, etc so that you can use one of the others while waiting for the timer to tick down...

 

[Bquat]

I went 100% G fund today because all of this talk the last couple days has scared me lol. I still have one IFT for the month though so I'm ready to jump back in when the bull heard starts running. I still have my Roth IRA invested though, but was considering pulling that out too. I haven't messed with my Roth IRA since I opened it several months ago. Are you or anyone else familiar with how mutual funds work with USAA? Like if I pull my money out of a mutual fund do I have to wait 30 days before I can reinvest in that specific mutual fund or can I move it around as much as I want? I would call USAA, but everytime you talk to a person about investments they lecture you about their life insurance policies and I'm sick of hearing about it from them.

Thanks!

Yea it was scarry. The market showed more strenght than I expected and it looked like it would take off after holding the 1244 and then they had to anounce about Germany not doing the bailout. They couldn't wait until we went green big. No they had to anounce right when we were building momentium right befor going green. You are probly ok for a couple of days now since the move was delayed. So we now have to wait again for the move and confirmation since we didn't reenter the channel and yesterdays low may be todays high. Also the Tracker had many going G. I hope the new white line holds.:worried:

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

Here's the momentium lost chart.

 

[MaStA]

Yes


No

However, they have a few funds that you can use to mirror the S&P, NASDAQ, etc so that you can use one of the others while waiting for the timer to tick down...

Any recommendations of your favorities? Currently I have my Roth IRA all in the URFFX 2050 retirement fund. Maybe not the best choice, but I didn't have time to research anything. Thank you!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Any recommendations of your favorities? Currently I have my Roth IRA all in the URFFX 2050 retirement fund. Maybe not the best choice, but I didn't have time to research anything. Thank you!

https://www.usaa.com/inet/imco_mutualfund/ImMutualFunds?FundGroup=VA

I have used USMIX and USNQX for equities and USAIX for bonds.

I have since decided to use ETFs for long and short positions in the market (to a varied degree of success) as they are traded like stocks instead of only traded once a day.

Don't know if that is good or bad, it just is

 

[MaStA]

https://www.usaa.com/inet/imco_mutualfund/ImMutualFunds?FundGroup=VA

I have used USMIX and USNQX for equities and USAIX for bonds.

I have since decided to use ETFs for long and short positions in the market (to a varied degree of success) as they are traded like stocks instead of only traded once a day.

Don't know if that is good or bad, it just is

Thank you for your input. I don't know much about ETFs so I will have to look into them. Does USAA have ETFs? If so where would those be listed? I'm guessing you have to pay trade fees for ETFs where as with mutual funds you don't?

Thanks and sorry Bquat for cluttering your thread. :embarrest:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Does USAA have ETFs?

Not to my knowledge. I know Schwab has no-fee ETFs.

I'm guessing you have to pay trade fees for ETFs where as with mutual funds you don't?

Just like a stock, you will have to pay a trade fee buy and trade and exchange fee when you sell.

 

[MaStA]

Not to my knowledge. I know Schwab has no-fee ETFs.



Just like a stock, you will have to pay a trade fee buy and trade and exchange fee when you sell.

Yeah I don't like the fees because I'm so bad at this that I would probably end up losing more money from the fees. I may just leave the Roth IRA alone and forget about it as much as I can. It is strictly for retirement and I'm only 26 so if it doesn't make money by the time I'm an old man then I guess I'm SOL. :worried:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Yeah I don't like the fees because I'm so bad at this that I would probably end up losing more money from the fees. I may just leave the Roth IRA alone and forget about it as much as I can. It is strictly for retirement and I'm only 26 so if it doesn't make money by the time I'm an old man then I guess I'm SOL. :worried:

I know what you mean... I, unfortunately have that kind of time on my hands so I have to take more risk.

However, you really should NOT look at your IRA as a buy-n-hold as you will (not could) lose money over basic market timing. Not even moving your money monthly. There is a guy on this board who moved his money less than 10 times this year and pulled off over 30% (don't remember who, or exactly how much but it was awesome)...

 

[MaStA]

I know what you mean... I, unfortunately have that kind of time on my hands so I have to take more risk.

However, you really should NOT look at your IRA as a buy-n-hold as you will (not could) lose money over basic market timing. Not even moving your money monthly. There is a guy on this board who moved his money less than 10 times this year and pulled off over 30% (don't remember who, or exactly how much but it was awesome)...

I always thought IRA's should be left alone. I guess unless the DOW is at 20,000 by the time I retire I probably won't make much money huh lol.