03/28/13
Stocks fell yesterday, but most of the damage was done at the open, and the indices battled back the rest of the day with some closing in positive territory. The Dow lost 33-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 made it 7 days in a row of back and forth, up / down action. The 1565 area has been holding as resistance, but the 20-day EMA is doing just as good of a job of holding as support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It's the same situation on the Nasdaq as the 20-day EMA is holding but there's overhead resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 20-day EMA is holding on the Transportation Index...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And the Russell 2000 (small caps)...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have been mentioning the mixed signals we are seeing in the sentiment type indicators. Our TSP Talk Survey is still quite bearish (which is bullish), and if you noticed we took the survey a day early because of the market and the TSP being closed on Friday.
The AAII Survey is overly bearish as well (which is bullish), but the Investor Intelligence survey is overly bullish (which is bearish) and the CBOE put/call ratio (dumb money) is very bullish (which is bearish.)
Here's another one from sentimenTrader.com that shows that margin debt, amount of stock owned on borrowed money, is near all-time highs while available cash is at a troubling low. This is a sign of excessive bullishness and normally a sign of trouble for stocks for the coming months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's the day before a market holiday and sometimes the pre-holiday action goes against the bigger trend, only to have the bigger trend resume after the holiday. The trouble is, the trend going into the holiday is a 7-day up/down chop so there is no short-term edge to either direction. Seasonality is strong on the Thursday before Good Friday but with the current larger trend being up, does that mean today (Thursday) will be down?
It's also the last trading day of the 1st quarter so that throws another question mark into the mix. Window dressing buying and selling may have already happened earlier in the week, so what will money managers do today to make last minute changes to their portfolios and quarterly reports? We'll see.
As a reminder, the TSP will not be processing transactions on Friday because of Good Friday. Hence, we won't be updating the market commentary on Friday here at TSP Talk.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend, and Happy Easter.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks fell yesterday, but most of the damage was done at the open, and the indices battled back the rest of the day with some closing in positive territory. The Dow lost 33-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 made it 7 days in a row of back and forth, up / down action. The 1565 area has been holding as resistance, but the 20-day EMA is doing just as good of a job of holding as support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It's the same situation on the Nasdaq as the 20-day EMA is holding but there's overhead resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 20-day EMA is holding on the Transportation Index...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And the Russell 2000 (small caps)...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have been mentioning the mixed signals we are seeing in the sentiment type indicators. Our TSP Talk Survey is still quite bearish (which is bullish), and if you noticed we took the survey a day early because of the market and the TSP being closed on Friday.
The AAII Survey is overly bearish as well (which is bullish), but the Investor Intelligence survey is overly bullish (which is bearish) and the CBOE put/call ratio (dumb money) is very bullish (which is bearish.)
Here's another one from sentimenTrader.com that shows that margin debt, amount of stock owned on borrowed money, is near all-time highs while available cash is at a troubling low. This is a sign of excessive bullishness and normally a sign of trouble for stocks for the coming months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's the day before a market holiday and sometimes the pre-holiday action goes against the bigger trend, only to have the bigger trend resume after the holiday. The trouble is, the trend going into the holiday is a 7-day up/down chop so there is no short-term edge to either direction. Seasonality is strong on the Thursday before Good Friday but with the current larger trend being up, does that mean today (Thursday) will be down?
It's also the last trading day of the 1st quarter so that throws another question mark into the mix. Window dressing buying and selling may have already happened earlier in the week, so what will money managers do today to make last minute changes to their portfolios and quarterly reports? We'll see.
As a reminder, the TSP will not be processing transactions on Friday because of Good Friday. Hence, we won't be updating the market commentary on Friday here at TSP Talk.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend, and Happy Easter.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
