Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

In a good market, our 'S Fund' should lead the 'C Fund'.

That is not happening.

I'm not going to change my allocation - yet. Economically, things are moving in the correct direction. The market movers might just want to 'greed up' on interest rates and are showing fear that they are remaining normal. If that is the case, things will right themselves quickly enough.

 

[Boghie]

Still too early for a trend - by far...

But, the 'S Fund' seems to be wanting to trend up and the 'C Fund' wants to follow.

We are still in the 'Dumb Money' time period. Let us see what happens around 1500 EST. It would be nice to see some uplifting smiles on the equity charts.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Still too early for a trend - by far...

But, the 'S Fund' seems to be wanting to trend up and the 'C Fund' wants to follow.

We are still in the 'Dumb Money' time period. Let us see what happens around 1500 EST. It would be nice to see some uplifting smiles on the equity charts.

Unfortunately, the Bears growled the Bulls back into the den, at the end, yet again.

 

[Boghie]

Dumb Money Hour, and things are moving up.

But, Dumb Money Hour.

You want to see the S-Fund smiling with a greater slope than the C-Fund. That still isn't happening. The Dumb Money C-Fund is up 0.93%, the Dumb Money S-Fund is up 0.50%. If all was good to go those would have been reversed.

And, as @FireWeatherMet 's daily charts show, a Smart Money frown isn't great news. You want to see big slope smiles at the end of the day.

In the end, I'm too old and slow to worry about small moves that don't seem to have an economic correlation. Folks who are equating these tiny and normal moves to November 2007 are missing the fact that people were watching the economy start to implode in 2007. That's not happening now. This is probably a little correction from the early year boom. I won't mess with my allocation till there is a 10% correction - which will probably be about a 5% correction for my allocation.

Time will tell.

 

[Boghie]

Nostradamus here:

• GDP will be robust and the private sector will be growing. Normal and Good
• Inflation will be stable. Wages will be growing faster than inflation
• and, the Monthly Treasury Statement will show a large and structural surplus.

That MTS will be kinda a joke though. Federal salary spending will be, ahem, rather minimal for October, eh . However, I think we were looking at a$70 Billion dollar surplus anyway. So, guessing a $120 Billion dollar surplus. We will really have to wait for the December MTS that will be published on the 8th business day in January.

This is ALL good news. If we can get our deficit spending in order than we can fund our needs. 60 years of deficit spending - most of it during non-war, good economic times was STOOOOPID. That will tamp down the ability of the Federal gubmint to meet the needs of current and future generations. Oh, well.

 

[Boghie]

Hmmmm, tasty market...



Not exactly a lion, but we all get the picture - don't we

Too bad my TSP contributions still haven't been posted. Anyway, that is small potatoes. I would rather be younger and go 'all in' on C/S/I right now than worry about getting my contributions in. But, I ain't younger so small potatoes it is.

 

[Boghie]

Nostradamus here:

• Jobs report will be good, but job growth will lag productivity growth.
• GDP will be robust and the private sector will be growing. Normal and Good
• Inflation will be stable or be declining. Wages will be growing faster than inflation
• and, the Monthly Treasury Statement will continue to present a shrinking monthly deficit.

Don't get excited here. We have massive monthly deficits, so a YoY shrinking is good, but not necessarily sufficient. However, if it is shrinking that is at least going in the right direction. About $35 Billion of that shrink is DOGE. Anyone notice that $400 Billion+ per year that is no longer being spent by the Feds. If not, does that say something...

 

[Boghie]

Grading the Nostradamus:

• Jobs report will be good, but job growth will lag productivity growth.
• GDP will be robust and the private sector will be growing. Normal and Good
• Inflation will be stable or be declining. Wages will be growing faster than inflation
• and, the Monthly Treasury Statement will continue to present a shrinking monthly deficit.

My super secret prophesy tell is when smart financial folks - and, this administration is kinda filled with them - get cocky about the recent past and the future. Bessent - who has a history of interest - didn't seem fazed when the dummies yammered at him about stuff a year ago. He just told them he would be back to discuss their yammering a year from now. Too funny. A dude like that already knows the answer before he opens his yammer - unlike our CongressCritters.

 

[Boghie]

Grading the Nostradamus:

Well, so far Nostradamus is 3 of 4 - with GDP next week.

• Jobs Report - 170K private sector jobs created. Great
• GDP - Still a Mystery of the Orient, but the Administration is Cocky.
• Inflation - 2.4%, now in the FED desired zone or close enough to it for Gubmint Work. Great.
• Monthly Treasury Statement - Revenue up 12%, Spending up less than 2%, Annual Deficit down 17%. Great

Oh, heart be still !!! How could anyone prophesize with such accuracy. Folks, I am neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet - but, I do have eyes and ears. Folks who actually know what they are doing, who don't spin for a living, and who have a reputuation to uphold don't sound cocky without reason. Bessent, and others, may not have the numbers before they are posted but they know the numbers because it is their job to have a feel for them. So, when Bessent tells some financially illiterate failed lawyer politician to pound sand and that he will scoreboard them next year on job growth, dollar stength, Federal revenue, and deficit redution one should listen and act on it.

The market may panic sell (they did yesterday) because they really want that low interest high, but the economy - and, hence the underlayment of the market, will react positively. The speculators will be washed out soon and we investors will hunt the savanah.



Also, good luck with trying to get lower interest rates from either the current FED or the future FED. The economy is rolling. There is NO reason to drop interest rates - and, the guy picked by Orange Man Bad is on the record against easy money. The Trumpster will have to deal with the debt without that crutch.