Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Again I will demonstrate my confidence in the 'Obama Economic Miracle'.

By reducing my equities holdings I am demonstrating my confidence that more regulation, higher taxes, and the fiat uncertainty integral in the Obama Economic Miracle will lift all boats - or something

Soon - next week - earnings season rears its ugly head. Anyone out there think companies are going to project growth? Maybe decent past earnings, but we are in for a capital strike.

G: 30%
F: 40%
C: 30%
S: 0%
I: 0%​

Enjoy the Healthcare...

 

[Boghie]

Crystal Balls...

How does this chap write so well?

Amazing thoughts and reflections...

 

[Boghie]

I don't know...

I haven't caught a wave all year...

G: 14%
F: 26%
C: 37%
S: 12%
I: 11%​

This is a normal conservative allocation.

 

[coolhand]

I don't see how anyone can compare the US market with Ireland or any other small country. The dymanics are completely different.

Crystal Balls...

How does this chap write so well?

Amazing thoughts and reflections...

 

[Birchtree]

Hey good buddy how about lending me some of that cash you're sitting on - it's buying time again.

 

[Boghie]

Hey good buddy how about lending me some of that cash you're sitting on - it's buying time again.

Bro,

Just moved 30% more of my holdings into equities - with some even going into the I Fund

Hopefully, Intel and the rest will not have negative guidance for the last half of the year - and maybe next year. Kinda doubt it, but...

 

[Boghie]

What's that, up in the sky - is it a bird, a plane...

What's that, up in the sky - is it a bird, a plane???

No, bro...

Its the Black Swan taking flight. Who would have guessed that bank regulation would have a detrimental affect on my retirement - and yours!!!

Then again, maybe its the fact that we middle class types still aren't getting any relief from the New Years Day Tax Code Celebration!!!

Or, maybe its the 1.whatever Trillion Zillion in annual deficts for as far as the eye can see!!!​

I just can't figure it out. I'm just happy I ain't 'All In'.

 

[Boghie]

Let us take a peek at Federal Expenditure growth over the last three years:

• The inflation adjustment is about 5.22%.
• Federal Expenditures (including suplimentals) have grown by 29%.
• Federal Expenditures minus recessionary expenditures have grown by 20%

Where exactly are the fiscal austerity measures being taken? Where has any demonstration of fiscal prudence been shown? Why have Federal budget line items been grown massively beyond inflation even though TARP and Fiscal Stimulus have already been expensed - with TARP being largely paid back?

What will happen once Federal Health Care expenditures take hold?

Are businesses and individuals reacting to tax code and regulation changes?

I will GLADLY accept a tax increase (temporary) when expenditure growth equals inflation. Till then, don’t ask me for more of my assets to cover expanded spending. I am cutting expenses, the Federal government can as well.

 

[crws]

Some of these items I have not researched to know where the $ goes, i.e. Dept of Commerce, but considering the other increases, I'd suspect a influx of funding was long overdue to continue services whose expense had grown like any other (private or Fed) sector over the last 3 years.
Although I get your point, I think the full effect & results will need more than a brief snapshot in time to develop.
Great info and research- Thanks!

Let us take a peek at Federal Expenditure growth over the last three years:

• The inflation adjustment is about 5.22%.
• Federal Expenditures (including suplimentals) have grown by 29%.
• Federal Expenditures minus recessionary expenditures have grown by 20%

Where exactly are the fiscal austerity measures being taken? Where has any demonstration of fiscal prudence been shown? Why have Federal budget line items been grown massively beyond inflation even though TARP and Fiscal Stimulus have already been expensed - with TARP being largely paid back?

What will happen once Federal Health Care expenditures take hold?

Are businesses and individuals reacting to tax code and regulation changes?

I will GLADLY accept a tax increase (temporary) when expenditure growth equals inflation. Till then, don’t ask me for more of my assets to cover expanded spending. I am cutting expenses, the Federal government can as well.

 

[Silverbird]

Most of Commerce's is probably the Census. I'm in a different Bureau (International Trade not Census) and we either have a flat budget or cut over those same years. Plus, we had a $millions (I think it was $4 million from memory) ding from an unfunded mandate for the Textile industry, and we've been upgrading our building for the first time since it was built in 1931 (the only major renovation since then was to put in air conditioning, and if we didn't do fixes, OSHA was going to start to ding us). Renovation started during Bush II, so it's not because of the economy, this has been going on for a couple years now (it's the second largest Govt building).

 

[Boghie]

For us Feds, Less than Good News...

Howdy,

• Them Tea Partiers are going to be sticking their tri-pointed hats in our eyes soon. Very soon...
  
  How can these chumps expect us to trim a little when we have packed on just a bit more than 24% in extra poundage beyond inflation. We are the lean mean fighting machine that can't see our pee-pee anymore:cheesy:.
  
  
  
• And, there goes the Social Security boondogle:notrust:.
  
  Just guessin'...
  
  Me thinks it will start collapsing far earlier than the NYT thinks.
  
  
  
• And, for the grand finale…
  
  I would never adjust my taxable income via legal tax management - would I? No way will I get hit by a 'soak the rich' tax increase. Then again, it is August, Congress just took a six week vacation, and the Party in power is split on adjusting their impending tax bonanza. They can just see all that casholla coming in. I'll just have to assume nothing will happen. I'll just blindly stumble into 2011. We'll pretend its a surprise. Such a New Years party!!!

 

[Boghie]

The temptation to buy on this dip is high.

Do you have to be high to take it?

I still have two IFTs, yea:toung:

August, September, and October are usually killer months. Is it worth the effort to invest when everything just churns around the 0 line? I kinda like my boring life right now. I’ll make some in the beginning of a bull market, and will alleviate losses if the Black Swan drops another load of crappolla. Sitting where I am I don’t even have to listen to Biden yak about ‘Recovery Summer’.

Here is something to think about.

Will the FED defend the dollar?

It is there mission statement, eh.

 

[Boghie]

I guess I've passed the temptation...
Was that the devil...

I'm the most boring person in the universe

Not a single trade in more than a month - or whatever...

 

[burrocrat]

Will the FED defend the dollar?

don't count on it, it's in everyone's long term interest to devalue it, debt is cheaper that way.

so does that mean go 'I'? or heavy mix of all equities and watch them pound the crap out of cash and bonds? could be it's all over already we just don't know it yet.

what's the play for short term 1-2 years deflation then where to move when the debt curve blows everything off the map? within the confines of tsp choices?

 

[Boghie]

Your depressing me Burrocrat...

In deflation cash is king. We have a cash 'equivalent' in the 'G Fund' - but, it is still a debt investment. And, my guess is that the private sector will do better than our public sector. Lots of folks in tri-pointed funny hats will be busy 'starving the beast'.

Then, bang, inflation...

Yuk...

don't count on it, it's in everyone's long term interest to devalue it, debt is cheaper that way.

so does that mean go 'I'? or heavy mix of all equities and watch them pound the crap out of cash and bonds? could be it's all over already we just don't know it yet.

what's the play for short term 1-2 years deflation then where to move when the debt curve blows everything off the map? within the confines of tsp choices?

 

[crws]

don't count on it, it's in everyone's long term interest to devalue it, debt is cheaper that way.

so does that mean go 'I'? or heavy mix of all equities and watch them pound the crap out of cash and bonds? could be it's all over already we just don't know it yet.

what's the play for short term 1-2 years deflation then where to move when the debt curve blows everything off the map? within the confines of tsp choices?

In recent weeks, all over the EU papers, 2nd half slowdown is the news.
That may have changed a little with the state of China, but as CH posted yesterday, the Russian forest fires are throwing isotopes in the atmosphere all around Europe.
IMO it's just a matter of (MT) time before another perfect storm hits the UK even with their stimulus.
This could set the stage for the ObamaEconomicMiracle we desperately need...

 

[burrocrat]

ok, if i'm understanding both the allocation suggestions and the direction of the world economy correctly...

it's cash short term, then hit equities hard when nothing has real value anymore, hope things pull out and it all ends up worth something in the end?

why to i get the feeling i'm going to take it in the end here?

 

[burrocrat]

you ever see them razor blade commercials for the ****** quatro? you remember when just twin blades was enough? f*** it i'm going quintuple on this market's six.

yeah, that's right, 5 blades mofo, bring it.

all in.

 

[crws]

you ever see them razor blade commercials for the ****** quatro? you remember when just twin blades was enough? f*** it i'm going quintuple on this market's six.

yeah, that's right, 5 blades mofo, bring it.

all in.

good thing you've got till noon ET to decide- Good luck to ya!

...a little ps here and there..
From 2006- how true was it?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/15371-the-stock-market-s-election-cycle

The Stock Market's Election Cycle
(clip)You can see that the market runs into a wall in the year after an election, and stays flat through most of the mid-term election year. The theory is that the incumbent president tries to make the economy look great for Election Day, and everything goes to hell shortly afterward. This data was based on the market’s total return (dividends included) from 1926 through 2005.

The data I had was monthly, and I wanted to see if I could narrow it some. I looked at all the daily closings for the Dow Jones from the start of 1929 through this past Tuesday. That’s roughly 19-1/3 election cycles. This is slightly different because it’s just one index and dividends aren’t included, but I do have the benefit of zeroing in on a specific day.

This is the average Dow election cycle looks like:

You can certainly see a similar pattern here. The market hits its low on September 30 of the mid-term year (not too far away!) and peaks on August 3 of the post-election year. In that 14-month period, the market declines an average of 9.4%. The market is up 46.8% over the other 34 months.

What I really found surprising is that the bullish period is very heavily concentrated within the first 12 months.

From September 30 of the mid-term to September 13 of the pre-election year, the Dow is up an average of 31.6%. To put that in perspective, the Dow averages a gain of 33.1% over the entire four-year period. So every four years, 95% of the market’s capital gains is squeezed into a one-year period.

 

[Boghie]

Sturm und Drang

Sorry about the lack of attention. Running shorthanded at work and building a website for a basketball conference in my off time. Also, throwing some marvelous darts to start a new league season – a mistake in a league that uses handicaps. But, you have to take your gains when you git em… Kinda like investing, eh…

For the few that are asking advice from a chap currently sitting at 219 in the AutoTracker and holding a very boring and very conservative allocation I will provide the following:

The next two weeks will be ugly.

• The week of August 22 will be dominated by housing statistics. For those that have jumped into equities please don’t jump out of any windows. We will get through this thing. And, who knows, maybe the reports will have some silver linings…
  
  My guess is not so much. I think the cliff will be so steep we have little chance of banging on rocks till we hit water. But, who knows. That is why I have kept some equity holdings – about 50%. That seems to make my S&P beta about 0.50. I can handle a 20% correction with that beta. I’ll just have to work with CRWS to find some tasty new beers.
  
  
• The following week of doom comes at the hand of employment data. Like Amoeba, my locale (Kalefornea) clouds my read on the economy. It might be better somewhere else. However, not in the Liberal Meccas of Michigan, Illinois, or New York. Those are mighty big laggards. We Libtards can drag any incipient growth to the negative.
  
  
• Finally, somewhere in here the big retirement and mutual funds will start trading. And, we will be a bit closer to guessing the election mood. Boom or bust. Don’t know. These chaps may bail while the market is -5% to -10%, or they may read it as a huge buying opportunity.

So, where does that leave you and me…

Right here.

You need some assets in safety so that you can buy on a potential big dip that proves temporary. You need some assets at risk so you can take part in potential gains. And, you have to accept the risk that comes with the balance. For me, that is a beta of 0.50. With my remaining IFTs I can move aggressively to more risk if the opportunity arises. I have to accept a potential of a 3% to 6% loss in a mini crash scenario – which would probably resolve itself with professional traders buying at an opportune time.

Clear as mud, eh.

Sturm und Drang